Obama supporters: what's the first major mistake you expect him to make in office?

Yes
Yes
And, sorry about that.

How is that different from any other president’s budget? Working for the White House Budget Office would be a great job for J. K. Rowling.

All those Bush Executive Orders that Obama’s allegedly planning on undoing? It’s not going to happen.

He’s going to forget about his campaign promises faster than any other elected official in American history, people are going to get really mad, and absolutely nothing will improve in the next four years.

You expect a mistake from the Messiah? O, ye of little faith.

Would you like to put some money on that?

This.

There are a lot of honest military personnel, who would say “This is a risk, but a good one. From a military standpoint, we can plan, stage and execute an operation that will have a high likelihood of achieving the specific goal of capturing or killing persons X, Y, and Z. We will do all we can in the planning and field stages to minimize casualties outside of the targets, but no one can guarantee complete safety. We also cannot speak to the political effects of this raid. Finally, the more time you take to check those other aspects out, the chances of the situation changing goes up. Quickly.”

There are also people who will promise the sun and the moon and stars, too. Guess which ones often make an effort to be popular with politicians.

He’ll be caught on camera smoking a cigarette and all the lunatics will make a big deal that he is setting a bad example for children.

That’s why he has Emmanuel. First Obama makes overtures of compromise, getting some Democrats and some Republicans to back his proposal. Then Rahm gets in there, twists some arms, kicks some asses, and really makes it happen.

If I had any money to put on it I would.

I admit I’m a cynic, but seriously - you think he’s going to close Guantanamo and allow American trials for the prisoners held there? Lift limits on stem cell research? Undo Bush’s abortion-themed gag order on foreign aid groups?

I don’t doubt that there will be improvements in those areas and others under Obama’s administration. But there is no way he’s going to do as much as he’s promised. He’s a politician, he’s going to stay as close to the center as he possibly can and he’s not going to do anything really risky.

If people seriously think that the fact that he ran a grassroots campaign means he’s actually going to follow through on his promises and listen to the people, they’re ridiculously naive.

Electing someone to the office of president is basically giving them a free pass to do whatever the hell they want, because there’s not really anything you can do to stop them, so why should we expect them to make good on their promises?

Actually I’d love for that to happen, time to stop demonizing use of tobbacco products, and quite frankly I think the smoke nazis would be very wary about bothering obama with that crap.

Declan

I share your cynicism but don’t agree with you entirely. I do think Obama will do the following:

-Shut down the detention center at Gitmo
-Lift the Federal limitations on stem cell research

Those two, I’m very sure on. However, the first one is going to be long and painful and I imagine won’t leave people on the far left or far right satisfied.

The stem cell stuff should happen very quickly.

It has already come out that some of the intelligence measures enacted under Bush are going to stay in place under Obama. Read this, for example.

I actually think Obama will be a good President, and was never opposed to him being President (he just wasn’t my first preference amongst all those who started running back in '07.) However, a lot of the reasons that I think Obama will be a good President will probably be reasons much of the hardcore leftist SDBM will probably look at him as a “traitor.”

Probably not very, unfortunately. Since Obama ran on a platform of change, business as usual in DC is not going to get the job done.

And he is therefore almost immediately subject to the temptations and drawbacks of having the White House and Congress under the control of only one party. Just like Bush did.

I suspect you can add “raise taxes” and “increase spending” to that list.

That would at least be better than the customary “cut taxes, increase spending” that Republican Presidents do.

The day they move in to the White House, in a rush of excitement, he will try to fuck Michelle but she will not be in the mood.

I’m changing my bet to this. But it’ll be in their bedroom, not the Oval Office or anything.

(Actually, I don’t doubt for a second that there’ll be some serious hanky-pank attempts at least - they are clearly two people who truly are in love with each other.)

Selecting Jaime Gorelick for AG.
Meeting/negotiating with Hamas.

The last two, for sure. Clinton lifted the abortion-gag-order thing very early in his time in office, and while I’m worried about Obama being centrist and cautious, I don’t expect him to be more cautious than Mr. Triangulation himself, particularly given the much more liberal political climate. And the stem cell thing is pure win for anyone who isn’t beholden to the Republican base.

On Gitmo, I expect him to do SOMETHING, but whether it will in fact reach the level of full American trials as opposed to some kind of half-assed hybrid court system (and some kind of replacement for Gitmo elsewhere) remains to be seen.

He has the advantage of not being an addictive nitwit obsessed with both proving himself to and bettering the record of his far more competent father.

That we have yet to know.

You think President-Elect Obama’s father is an outstandingly competent person of the ilk of George H.W. Bush?