# Obama surges ahead in key swing states **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 18, 2008, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335 "2008-06-18T14:32:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/61 "2008-06-19T05:28:56Z")
You make it sound like we’re being swallowed by an anaconda. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/62 "2008-06-19T05:34:05Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] You make it sound like we’re being swallowed by an anaconda. [/QUOTE] Saint Exupéry’s boa constrictor swallowing an elephant. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/63 "2008-06-19T05:42:49Z")
“Hey, you might as well give up, I got you! Resistance is futile, I’ve already swallowed about half your trunk, so you’re pretty much doomed. Hey, don’t sneeze! C’mon, no sneezing! Don’t you DARE fucking sneeze, you goddam…” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/64 "2008-06-19T13:39:59Z")
[QUOTE=Larry Borgia] Figuring out the difference between MLB standings in the middle of a season and political polls is left as an exercise for the reader. [/QUOTE] Well, the political polls are something I follow closely, and the MLB standings not so much. So that’s one. Some would like to believe that the results of the political process matter more, but some would dispute that. There is a reason that [fivethirtyeight](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html) (a very good blog) is run by Nate Silver, whose day job is as an analyst for a company called Baseball Prospectus: > [@](#): > > Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn’t supported by the demographic evidence. For those of who care about the sport of politics these are the numbers we got. Are the Cubs peaking early? Will they surge all the way to winning the Series? Obviously doing well now is a long way away from that, but doing well now makes some think that maybe, just maybe, they really could do it this time. (Yeah, right.) For those who care following the ups and downs and speculating about the future is the fun of the process. Just so with politics. It’s fine if that’s not your sport, or if you do not yet know what team you want to root for, but for many of us these numbers are very interesting indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/65 "2008-06-19T13:48:22Z")
The difference between polls and sports standing is that your mid season standings count. Polls don’t. If you’ve got a .400 record at mid season you need a .600 record for the rest of your games just to break even. But you can get 10% of every poll and still win the election with only 50% + 1 vote. If polls are analogous to anything, they resemble pre-season games. They’re not completely without interest, they show your team’s (candidate’s) strengths and weaknesses, and help you plot your strategy. In the long term they’re meaningless. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/66 "2008-06-19T14:03:22Z")
Rasmussen just released new numbers for Florida, McCain +8. This goes directly against the latest Quinnipiac poll. ARG (yeah, I know) has just put out numbers nearly identical to Quinnipiac, for what it’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/67 "2008-06-19T14:15:54Z")
I wouldn’t get too excited over poll numbers at this point. I still think Obama’s got a long way to go in order to compete in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls probably won’t start to have much meaning until after the conventions. [QUOTE=John Mace] (I honestly think this is all a bunch of over-analysis at this point.) [/QUOTE] Yes, and that’s not a good sign. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/68 "2008-06-19T14:22:52Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] You make it sound like we’re being swallowed by an anaconda. [/QUOTE] Nah. A [boa constrictor.](http://www.grandfolkies.com/boa1.htm) (Whaddaya want? I’m a pediatrician.) ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/69 "2008-06-19T14:45:01Z")
One possible usefulness of polls, even this far out: Their results can energize or demoralize a campaign’s foot soldiers who do the slog work of registering voters, spreading literature, hosting fundraisers and organizational meetings, getting voters to the polls, manning local offices, and so forth. One reason Obama has been so successful so far is the amazingly farflung, pervasive, efficient and dedicated campaign network he’s spread into all 50 states. The Obama-friendly sites I visit are bubbling with a heady mixture of “Yay, look how good we’re doing!” and “Yabbut don’t get cocky – work even harder!” ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/70 "2008-06-19T14:51:46Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] The Rasmussen bump was 12%, not 6%. He went from 6 behind to 6 ahead and stayed there for about a week. That has now tapered slightly, but not yet statistically significantly. He also leads in every other poll, not just nationally, but electorially. ETA, his lead today is by 4, not 3. [Cite](http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll) Also, Hugh Hewitt is a humongous douchebag. [/QUOTE] 😕 The cite has it at a three point bump, and the daily tracking polls there show a six point bump (42 to 48) that has now settled to 45. So…wha? Hugh Hewitt wasn’t even in that day, it was a guest host. Now don’t **you** feel stupid? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/71 "2008-06-19T14:57:54Z")
Listening to Hugh Hewitt (or his hilarious guest hosts) never fails to make me feel smarter. ---
**Author:** ![ArizonaTeach](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/45deac/32.png) [@ArizonaTeach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ArizonaTeach)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/72 "2008-06-19T15:10:40Z")
[QUOTE=stolichnaya] Listening to Hugh Hewitt (or his hilarious guest hosts) never fails to make me feel smarter. [/QUOTE] 😕 His hard-hitting and intelligent analysis expands your knowledge and understanding of the issues? Oh…wait…I get it. (For the record, I couldn’t care less about Hewitt, really) ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/73 "2008-06-19T15:21:43Z")
[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach] 😕 The cite has it at a three point bump, and the daily tracking polls there show a six point bump (42 to 48) that has now settled to 45. So…wha? [/quote] It’s a 3 point lead today. It was 4 points yseterday. His bump gave him an initial 6 point _lead_, but he was starting from 6 _behind_, so it was a total bump of 12 points. The tracking history at the rasmussen site only goes back to June 4, but I’ve been following it for months and Obama was routinely 6-8 points behind before he clinched the nomination. > [@](#): > > Hugh Hewitt wasn’t even in that day, it was a guest host. Now don’t **you** feel stupid? 🙂 You’re the one who listens to that show and you’re asking me that? 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/74 "2008-06-19T15:45:51Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] One possible usefulness of polls, even this far out: Their results can energize or demoralize a campaign’s foot soldiers who do the slog work of registering voters, spreading literature, hosting fundraisers and organizational meetings, getting voters to the polls, manning local offices, and so forth. [/QUOTE] The demoralizing side is worthy of emphasizing. For McCain to win he needs to pull out a run of key wins. If he loses Florida, and the rest of the map goes as it looks like it will (see [here)](http://www.demconwatchblog.com/) then he needs not only Ohio and Michigan but virtually every other swingable state. Just an Ohio loss would mean that he’d need to win the vast majority of the others as well. Even losing Virginia makes his possible paths narrow indeed. He is not a candidate who is going to rev up that base of foot soldiers to come out in huge numbers in any case, or get the Party machine to enthusiastically support him either. If those forces also feel that he is a sinking ship then building his winning coalition becomes that much more difficult. Without those people out there his chances of reversing the trend are that much less. (Remember too that his anticipated Convention bounce is going to be distracted by Ron Paul’s little show, whereas Obama will get a coordinated sales presentation with Team Clinton during his.) To be sure, the media will attack the frontrunner whoever it may be, and by so doing try to make a race as exciting as possible; surging early attracts that fire no doubt. But the more McCain’s team can be kept from gaining their footing the better nevertheless. Off-balance is key. Off-balance on message (to the right or to the middle? flip or flop?) and off-balance on how to utilize more limited resources (defend states that are threatened or attack states that are merely Obama leaning?). Both are good. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/75 "2008-06-19T16:08:45Z")
[QUOTE=Frostillicus] And I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict that Obama takes Illinois. 😃 [/QUOTE] I don’t care what anyone says - Obama’s gonna win DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Mark my words! ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/76 "2008-06-19T16:11:28Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I don’t care what anyone says - Obama’s gonna win DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Mark my words! [/QUOTE] Just to get one in for the other side, I predict McCain wins Utah and Wyoming ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/77 "2008-06-19T16:23:11Z")
Here’s another data point: [www.Fivethirtyeight.com](http://www.Fivethirtyeight.com). [This is how they say they differ from sites like RCP.](http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz) There are several ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations. Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster’s historical track record, the poll’s sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages. Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demograhics in each state among our ‘polls’, which helps to account for outlier polls and to stabilize the results. Thirdly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes. Tell me what you think of their methodology, please. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/78 "2008-06-19T16:55:49Z")
I’ve been impressed by 538. Nate, of 538, has been talking up how Obama should visit Alaska now and try to put [it in play.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/why-obama-should-visit-alaska-part-ii.html) By the same logic but with big electoral votes, I really want to see Obama make a play for Texas! He’s down 14% sure, but the message competing there would send, and even if losing, losing more narrowly and helping build a Democratic organization there for the future, would be huge. I think a concerted effort there could put it in play and this relative downtime is the time to make some visits there just to keep Team McCain on their toes. ---
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/79 "2008-06-19T17:00:05Z")
**Biggirl** , the problem I have with your site is that I don’t understand half of it. Example: the Electoral Vote Distribution Graph - what does the vertical axis represent? Or the Swing State Analysis chart - what do the percentages refer to? On the left hand side, you have little state icons, some of which are purple even though they show over 90% for Obama. What does the color represent? The site is very confusing to me, and generally speaking I’m not considered a particularly stupid person. ETA: **Bigg_irl_** , not **Bigg_ri_l**! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/80 "2008-06-19T17:16:37Z")
See the [538 FAQ](http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz) for some explanations. (Charts and graphs section.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335.md?page=5)