# Obama surges ahead in key swing states **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 18, 2008, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335 "2008-06-18T14:32:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Oy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/bc8723/32.png) [@Oy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oy)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/81 "2008-06-19T20:38:25Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] See the [538 FAQ](http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dhn8hrb6_4c43866dz) for some explanations. (Charts and graphs section.) [/QUOTE] Thanks, but it answered only one of my three questions, and I shouldn’t have to go to an FAQ to find it. The whole point of a chart or graph is to show data in a concise and meaningful way, or at least so I think. I’m sure the data on this site is well thought out and meaningful. It’s just that it’s presented badly for a non-statistician. Most people don’t know what “regression” means in this context, for example. Maybe the target audience are the statistically sophisticated, in which case never mind. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/82 "2008-06-19T20:43:14Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Nate, of 538, has been talking up how Obama should visit Alaska now and try to put [it in play.](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/why-obama-should-visit-alaska-part-ii.html) [/QUOTE] Today, Obama released a one minute ad that will be shown in a large number of states. And they include Alaska. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/83 "2008-06-19T21:03:02Z")
A bit more explanation - My understanding is that the Electoral vote distribution graphic shows the results of runs of the simulation model and how many times the model would result in various results. His model results in a very low probabilty for some results in either direction and has a peak probability right now of Obama with 335 electoral votes. 75% of the runs have Obama getting 270 or more. On the left the percent gives the percentage of runs of te model that have each winning the state and the color shows how it went in 2004, solid Red, solid Blue, or close and therefore Purple. I hope that helps. ---
**Author:** ![stolichnaya](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bcef8e/32.png) [@stolichnaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stolichnaya)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/84 "2008-06-19T21:08:07Z")
[QUOTE=Oy!] Thanks, but it answered only one of my three questions, and I shouldn’t have to go to an FAQ to find it. The whole point of a chart or graph is to show data in a concise and meaningful way, or at least so I think. I’m sure the data on this site is well thought out and meaningful. It’s just that it’s presented badly for a non-statistician. Most people don’t know what “regression” means in this context, for example. Maybe the target audience are the statistically sophisticated, in which case never mind. [/QUOTE] Yeah, it’s got kind of a “for stat geeks by stat geeks” mindset. I also don’t like the charts as presented, there’s not enough information, looks like someone followed his Tufte too far and started trimming muscle along with the fat. Once you realize what you’re looking at, they are really quite informative, but that should not be my responsibility as a viewer to find out. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/85 "2008-06-19T21:40:04Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] Today, Obama released a one minute ad that will be shown in a large number of states. And they include Alaska. [/QUOTE] And Montana, and North Dakota. I think all three are legitimately in play: Obama’s down by only 4-6% in each of them. And TV time is cheap in all three. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2008, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/86 "2008-06-19T23:23:49Z")
It’s a very effective ad, too, especially for those locations. It’s all about things like faith, love of country, and neighbors helping neighbors. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2008, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/87 "2008-06-20T06:23:17Z")
[And now Obama is virtually tied with McCain in Georgia.](http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/06/19/mccain_obama_georgia.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab) > [@](#): > > The poll from Atlanta-based Insider Advantage shows McCain’s lead shrinking from 10 percentage points a month ago to a 44 percent to 43 percent split today, with Libertarian nominee Bob Barr, the former Republican congressman from Georgia, drawing 6 percent. (Hi **John Mace**!) ---
**Author:** ![jaydotbeedot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/54ee81/32.png) [@jaydotbeedot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jaydotbeedot)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2008, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335/88 "2008-06-20T23:45:26Z")
[The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.](http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465?from=rss) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-surges-ahead-in-key-swing-states/453335.md?page=4)