What do you mean by to the tune of 40 billion? If you’re saying the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was $40 billion you’re unfortunately off by a factor of 100. The most recent figures put the direct cost at about $4 trillion.
So where’s the empirical evidence that unemployment would have been better had the stimulus not been passed? Or where’s the evidence that we’d be better off had we not loaned money to the Big Three? There is absolutely no “empirical evidence” for that. None. If you have it, show it to me, otherwise you are operating under a theoretical model. Which you are.
I don’t know about unemployment, but without the Bush tax cuts we damn well wouldn’t have this massive budget deficit right now.
And hating what he represents is also stupid, of course, but a different kind of stupid. Just so we’re all clear.
Of course. You never hate any ideologies, do you.
Romney also seems to think he can get everyone to play nice together.
Making things up is quicker than looking things up.
Seriously, adaher, how do you know this? Do you really think you have a familiarity with the underlying literature? In fact, there are a number of institutions that have economic models and the overwhelming number of them agree that the stimulus package worked. They agree because they apply textbook economics and not “What you or I find politically convenient”.
We are here to fight ignorance, not enable it adaher.
Now for the facts. Three independent analyses by 3 institutions in the business of modeling the economy. IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com. All agree that the stimulus worked. http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/02/assessing-the-stimulus.html
Of course the risk of manufacturing evidence or even hackery is that eventually you begin to believe your own nonsense. That’s what’s happened to Mitt Romney. The man has technical skills. But he’s been focused on winning over hacks and loons and hasn’t spent enough time assembling and meeting with serious advisers. (eg Mankiw, who is part of his team and Scowcroft who is not.)
Sorry, I meant the cost of repaying for the wars year over year. That cost is upwards of 40 billion a year, vs. 1 billion for a one time Veterans Jobs bill. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34245778/ns/politics/t/lawmakers-divided-over-paying-afghan-war/
I don’t know what we expect the Republicans to do.
The Republicans have convinced themselves that they have a monopoly on good ideas so they are willing to do whatever it takes to get into power. If this means blocking legislation that they agree with to make the opposition appear weak, then so be it. If this means torpedoing the US credit rating, so be it. If this means taking pot shots at your own embassies while your embassies are still under attack, then so be it. They put party before country because they love their country too much to let is suffer under a Democratic administration.
And in the process they have painted themselves into a corner. They were looking at spending decades in the wilderness then they saw an opportunity to be relevant again by embracing the worst elements of their party and they were willing to do this because anyone is better than the Democrats.
Dial it back–a lot.
This is way too close to directing name-calling at other posters.
[ /Moderating ]
Daniel Larison opines in his blog. I add emphasis Because the [Romney] campaign has avoided policy content as much as possible, its failure could and likely would be explained in many different, conflicting ways, and each set of critics would have some evidence to support their view. Among wonkish and reformist conservatives, there will be a temptation to blame the campaign for choosing and then wasting Ryan… A related, distinct group of Ryan admirers will blame the campaign for “smothering” and co-opting Ryan.
There will, of course, be those who pin most of the blame of Romney for his dishonesty and lack of credibility as a conservative, and they won’t be entirely wrong…
Critics of Ryan’s budget proposals will seize on a defeat to claim that it was his entitlement reform proposals that ended up costing the ticket in important states. … Others will insist that entitlement reform wasn’t the problem, but rather the campaign’s cynical attempt to have things both ways by demagoguing changes to Medicare while proposing even greater changes of their own. …mindlessly repeating ideological fictions (e.g., “apology tour,” that 47% don’t pay taxes and are therefore government dependents)… The campaign has been such a confused mess and has tried to be so many different, mutually contradictory things at once that each interpretation will have some merit, which suggests that there will be little or no consensus on “what went wrong.”
…On foreign policy, it ought to be easy enough to point to Romney’s blundering on this subject to argue that the party needs to move away from hard-line hawkishness, but there will inevitably be a counter-argument that Romney’s failings on foreign policy are above all the result of his ignorance, inexperience, and lack of interest in the subject rather than the policies he favored. The latter argument will be undermined by the fact that very few hawks seemed to notice or care about Romney’s inexperience and ignorance before the election, but it will be a popular one because it allows hawks to avoid revisiting any of their assumptions. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/where-will-the-gop-go-if-it-loses-2012/
The real one. I guess you guys forgot when Obama refused to listen to the GOP early in his presidency because, as he stated, “I won”, right? How about when Democrats said they’d rather shut down the government than budge on entitlement cuts or Planned Parenthood funding? You remember how Democrats threatened to tell the American people that a government shutdown was the Republicans fault if they didn’t back down? That showed real compromise on the part of the Democrats, right? Of course it didn’t. But you “conveniently” leave this stuff out and continue to play the “Republican obstructionist” line.
(But those Democrats in the 111th Congress? They, however, were fucking patriots.)
So you fight ignorance by redirecting to other sources than the CBO, when it was the CBO I cited? They used a theoretical model to judge the effect of the stimulus.
the three other sources you cited are also theoretical. If they had made those predictions BEFORE the stimulus they might have value. But going back afterwards and just saying it would have been worse because your computer model says it would have been worse is nonsense.
In the very next post, Delong says they use a MODEL:
** (3) why their preferred models are superior to the alternative approaches in this context (demonstrating, along the way, their superior predictive power). Until that occurs, I’ll stick with the mainstream…**
Models are not empirical evidence.
That’s pretty much what the Republican leadership has said. Compromise is only possible in those cases in which Dems completely agree on a point. Obama has pretty much moved towards the right. It just looks like he’s on the left because the Right keeps moving the goalposts faster and faster to the right.
I’m not sure on what issue he’s moved to the right, so much as he’s continued most of GWB’s failed policies and thrown a few old failed liberal ideas on top as well.
Ideologies aren’t equal. Just because it’s stupid to hate one doesn’t mean it’s stupid to hate another. Why in the world would you interpret his comment as a universal comment about ideologies, rather than just saying that one particular ideology is good?
Problem is, there is no empirical evidence for “what would have happened.” There by definition can’t be. The only thing we can use are models.
And, no, you haven’t cited anything until this post. We can scroll back and see everything you’ve posted, and there is no citation in any of them.
In fact, what’s weird now is that you are finally citing a model, when you just got through saying that models are not evidence. Why does that only apply to models you disagree with?
And, if your model was mainstream, then there would have been no stimulus. The entire reason there was one was that the models predicted it would help. You even quoted someone saying that there’s no reason to not stick with the mainstream model, so what is your point?
When you come back, please try to make sense.
you misunderstood my reason for providing the Delong link. I was showing that he was also relying on a model to prove that the stimulus worked. Theoretical models don’t prove anything in economics.
Well, for one thing, he did sorta drop single payer, universal health care, which would have, you know, WORKED at reducing health costs in favor of Romneycare … I mean, Obamacare … which simply mandates that EVERYONE buy health care from private insurers which does NOTHING to reduce health care and is in fact a big fact gravy train for health care insurers. That was a significant shift to the right.
Dropping single payer isn’t much of a sacrifice given that there wasn’t even enough support in the Democratic caucus to pass it.
He passed the most liberal plan that he could, and he’s been very consistent about passing the most liberal plans he could. That makes him a liberal. THe Blue Dogs are the ones driving the agenda, or at least they did when the Democrats controlled Congress.
Passing the most liberal plans he could, when those plans are in fact ideologically conservative, does ***not ***make him a liberal. It makes him a pragmatist or a triangulationist or even a conservative. The main principles found in the healthcare reform known as “Obamacare” were first proposed by the Heritage Foundation in 1989 as an alternative to a single-payer system favored by Democrats, and made famous by Hillary Clinton. Once Hillarycare went public, conservatives like Newt Gingrich showed much support for the individual mandate proposed by the Heritage Foundation. Republican Mitt Romney actually ran with the Heritage Foundation’s idea and passed it into law in Massachusetts when he was governor there in the early 00s. You may know it better as “Romneycare.” It has the same individual mandate as Obamacare and… the Heritage Foundation’s plan.
Yes, Obama passed the only thing he could in the political environment he found himself, but don’t fool yourself into thinking this was some sort of liberal or lefty reform wet dream. It was straight out of the Heritage Foundation’s book of conservative reform, with very little that the progressives/lefties loved; it’s merely tolerable until the inevitable universal/single-payer gets passed in the next decade or so. To me, Obama was more concerned with getting more people insured, even if it meant swallowing a big fat horse pill, and accepting a plan that originated with conservatives. This should have been seen as a victory by Republicans, as it meant they finally got what they were pining for for the past 20 years in terms of healthcare reform.
Triangulation involves using the liberals as foils. Obama has never done that. Unlike Clinton, he has consistently had liberal support for every single one of his major initiatives. Clinton, by contrast, put major political capital behind bills that were opposed by liberals.