# Obama up by 3 with 3 minutes to go (football analogy) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603 "2012-11-01T19:11:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/1 "2012-11-01T19:11:30Z")
From today’s post on 538: > [@Nate Silver](#): > > Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. So, how close do you think the election is, in terms of (American) football or your preferred sport? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/2 "2012-11-01T19:13:08Z")
If Obama can hit that bullseye, the rest of those dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate! ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/3 "2012-11-01T19:17:15Z")
I’d say Obama is up by 8 with 2 minutes to go. Certainly not over, but you can begin to breath easily (as a fan, not a player). ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/4 "2012-11-01T19:18:21Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > If Obama can hit that bullseye, the rest of those dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate! Well done. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/5 "2012-11-01T19:29:56Z")
I suppose you might say that Obama has murdered three busses full of nuns and orphans as compared to Romney’s _two_ busses. But they have each drowned four bags of kittens, and with two minutes to go they’re fighting over the single remaining bag — now, Obama is younger, feistier, and possesses a fiercer hatred of kittens, but Romney has a proven record of animal cruelty. So it’s still anybody’s game. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/6 "2012-11-01T19:30:04Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I’d say Obama is up by 8 with 2 minutes to go. Certainly not over, but you can begin to breath easily (as a fan, not a player). I’d say up by 5 with 2 minutes left viz. Romney has to go for the touchdown to win it. He may be on his own 10 but at least he has the ball. ---
**Author:** ![AlohaBear32](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e47774/32.png) [@AlohaBear32](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlohaBear32)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/7 "2012-11-01T19:36:34Z")
Final (5th) Round of UFC Presidental title defense, 1 minute to go (10 seconds = 1 day) Both men are tired, Obama leads the score cards 39-37…Obama is on top looking for full mount,throwing a few punches here and there, Romney has him in half guard looking for an escape or a chance to get Obama in full guard and secure a triangle choke or Kimura…still anyones fight, a lot can happen in 60 seconds (6 days) but so far Obama has a slight advantage. Or if you like I can use WWE analogy next time… ---
**Author:** ![Rachellelogram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rachellelogram/32/8689_2.png) [@Rachellelogram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rachellelogram)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/8 "2012-11-01T19:37:18Z")
> [@Paranoid\_Randroid](#): > > I suppose you might say that Obama has murdered three busses full of nuns and orphans as compared to Romney’s _two_ busses. But they have each drowned four bags of kittens, and with two minutes to go they’re fighting over the single remaining bag — now, Obama is younger, feistier, and possesses a fiercer hatred of kittens, but Romney has a proven record of animal cruelty. So it’s still anybody’s game. So genocide is your favorite sport, too? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/9 "2012-11-01T19:37:37Z")
I think Romney should use one of his Time Outs. ---
**Author:** ![Paranoid\_Randroid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/paranoid_randroid/32/18_2.png) [@Paranoid\_Randroid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paranoid_Randroid)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/10 "2012-11-01T19:41:20Z")
> [@Rachellelogram](#): > > So genocide is your favorite sport, too? The only uniform is a toothbrush mustache. (By regulation mandatory, BTW.) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/11 "2012-11-01T19:50:41Z")
Based on Nate’s 79% chance of an Obama win, and 21% chance of a Romney win, you could use a [first down analogy](http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/07/first-down-probability.html): If Romney has the ball, he’s in a 3rd and 14 situation. There’s a 21 percent chance of him getting a first down before running out of downs. If Obama has the ball, he’s at 2nd and 3. He has a 79 percent chance of getting a first down. ---
**Author:** ![basefifty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cdc98d/32.png) [@basefifty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/basefifty)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/12 "2012-11-01T19:52:49Z")
It’s a tied Scrabble game with no unturned pieces remaining Romney is holding E E I O O O U Obama is holding Q U I Z \ E R ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/13 "2012-11-01T19:54:27Z")
> [@basefifty](#): > > It’s a tied Scrabble game with no unturned pieces remaining > > Romney is holding E E I O O O U > > Obama is holding Q U I Z \ E R Actually Obama is holding K W I J I B O ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/14 "2012-11-01T19:55:35Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I think Romney should use one of his Time Outs. No, godammit. I’m about ready to pop as it is. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/15 "2012-11-01T19:59:44Z")
Obama is at home, going into the 9th with a two run lead. He can’t lose! (Yes, I’m still bitter.) ---
**Author:** ![Squooshed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Squooshed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squooshed)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/16 "2012-11-01T20:00:12Z")
Romney’s got a runner on second base with two outs. The odds of scoring at least one run in that situation are slightly better than 20%, at least based on one run expectancy chart I found. ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/17 "2012-11-01T20:01:16Z")
> [@basefifty](#): > > It’s a tied Scrabble game with no unturned pieces remaining > > Romney is holding E E I O O O U > > Obama is holding Q U I Z \ E R Then Romney wins after he successfully argues it’s his turn, again, and that OEUIEOO is a cromulent word. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/18 "2012-11-01T20:02:27Z")
Top of the ninth. Home team (Obama) is up by three runs. Team Romney has a runner on second with one out. Batter up! Team Romney could still pull some magic out of his ass and tie or pull ahead, but Obama still has the chance to steam-roll him in the bottom of the ninth. I think if you pressed a bookie in the top of the ninth in that situation, you might get slight odds. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/19 "2012-11-01T20:04:37Z")
I think Nate’s analogy is apt, and I understand why he draws the parallel but at the same time, this isn’t a football game and there are not going to be very many chances/paths for Romney to take the lead. I’m a huge fan of Silver’s work but it seems like he’s putting this out there now in case things flame out for his model. This will allow him to point back and say “Your team just scored a touchdown w/ 15 seconds on the clock.” Silver was willing to bet $1000 to Joe Scarborough that Obama would win. I don’t think he’d make that same bet if his football team was up by three with three minutes left. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2012, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/20 "2012-11-01T20:09:09Z")
It’s a penalty shootout in the World Cup. Regular time ended 1-1. Overtime ended 2-2. It’s a shootout, and now Obama has kicked in three straight penalties, but Romney missed two. Last two sets of penalties left. Advantage: Obama; if he kicks one of the last two in, he wins. Romney needs to kick in both the next two, hope Obama misses both of his, and then kick in the tie-breaker with another Obama miss. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603.md?page=2)