# Obama up by 3 with 3 minutes to go (football analogy) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 1, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603 "2012-11-01T19:11:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/101 "2012-11-03T12:30:47Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Right now, Obama is an 80.9% favorite. This would be like, in a game of Hold 'Em, getting it all in with [pocket Kings against pocket deuces](http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=kd+kc%0D%0A2h+2s) with both players having different suits. [538.com](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) updated with new polls early this morning and now Obama is a 83.7% favorite to win (the highest he has been since October 5th, two days after the first debate). In poker terms, that is just a little better than getting it all-in pre-flop with [pocket Aces against 4-6 offsuit](http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=Ac+As%0D%0A4c+6s) of the same suit. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/102 "2012-11-03T13:40:38Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > [538.com](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) updated with new polls early this morning and now Obama is a 83.7% favorite to win (the highest he has been since October 5th, two days after the first debate). > > In poker terms, that is just a little better than getting it all-in pre-flop with [pocket Aces against 4-6 offsuit](http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=Ac+As%0D%0A4c+6s) of the same suit. In baseball terms, it’s top of the ninth, Obama’s up by 2, Romney’s at bat with runners on first and second. One out. In football terms, its the two-minute warning. Obama’s got the ball at the 50, it’s 3rd and 8, and he’s up on Romney by 2. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/103 "2012-11-03T14:12:39Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > In baseball terms, it’s top of the ninth, Obama’s up by 2, Romney’s at bat with runners on first and second. One out. > > In football terms, its the two-minute warning. Obama’s got the ball at the 50, it’s 3rd and 8, and he’s up on Romney by 2. As a New Yorker, I hope Mariano Rivera is pitching and Eli Manning is the quarterback. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Trepa\_Mayfield](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@Trepa\_Mayfield](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trepa_Mayfield)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/104 "2012-11-04T01:16:25Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > As a New Yorker, I hope Mariano Rivera is pitching and Eli Manning is the quarterback. 🆒 So if Rivera throws it and Manning receives, can he throw it again? Does that count as a lateral pass? ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/105 "2012-11-04T04:39:06Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Because of penalties and injuries, Romney’s squamish team is down to 38 men. And they’ve already used up 4 Snivels trying to carrying the Pritz across the pentagonal goal line for a Woomik. …hmmm, knew it all by heart back in fifth grade, when we tried to start a team. Was it the Quarter-Frummerts that were allowed to heckle the opposition by doing imitations of Barry Goldwater? ---
**Author:** ![April\_R](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@April\_R](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/April_R)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/106 "2012-11-04T04:43:53Z")
Knowing me, I would have gone to the bathroom at the stadium thinking Obama had it in the bag and I wanted to avoid the crowds before the game ended, but missed being a eye witness to the “Music City Miracle” and one the the most famous comeback victories in the history of football because I had to take a pee\* :smack: This is partly a true story ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/107 "2012-11-04T16:21:30Z")
Clock keeps ticking. Romney’s ball on the Obama 40. Romney’s down by 2 with 1:45 to go. Fourth down and 10. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/108 "2012-11-05T16:31:36Z")
Bottom of the ninth, Romney’s at bat, down by one, runner on second, two outs. The crowd is on its feet. A solitary vendor cries out “Hot dog! Getcher red hot wieners!” ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/109 "2012-11-05T18:57:01Z")
It’s the tenth frame, Romney with an 7-10 split. He needs to pick up the spare to have a chance to win, but only has a chance if Obama, who bowls second, fails to knock down more than five pins in his last frame. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/110 "2012-11-05T18:59:51Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > It’s the tenth frame, Romney with an 7-10 split. He needs to pick up the spare to have a chance to win, but only has a chance if Obama, who bowls second, fails to knock down more than five pins in his last frame. And we all know no one bowls quite like the President. ---
**Author:** ![StusBlues](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@StusBlues](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StusBlues)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/111 "2012-11-05T19:06:46Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > It’s the tenth frame, Romney with an 7-10 split. He needs to pick up the spare to have a chance to win, but only has a chance if Obama, who bowls second, fails to knock down more than five pins in his last frame. Pretty good one, actually. In football terms, I would say that Obama is up by four, Romney has the ball on his own 35-yard line,\* there’s a minute to go, and Romney has no time outs. For sake of argument, it’s first down. The game is winnable, but the odds are well against it. In baseball terms, Romney is two runs down in the bottom of the ninth, no outs, no one on, three-hitter at the plate. Basketball? Down by seven with a minute to go. Tennis? Down two sets to love, but up a break in the third set. I hesitate go there in combat sports since last-second comebacks just aren’t that uncommon, but what the hell. Romney has lost the first two rounds and Obama is in side mount with three minutes to go in the third or three rounds. \*As I understand it, this puts him 65 yards out. ---
**Author:** ![Asimovian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asimovian/32/172_2.png) [@Asimovian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asimovian)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/112 "2012-11-05T19:13:31Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > And we all know no one bowls quite like the President. As an avid bowler, I nearly changed my vote in 2008 because of his bowling…proficiency. I might put the odds at more like 50/50 in **Knorf** ’s scenario! ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/113 "2012-11-05T19:28:08Z")
> [@StusBlues](#): > > Pretty good one, actually. > > In football terms, I would say that Obama is up by four, Romney has the ball on his own 35-yard line,\* there’s a minute to go, and Romney has no time outs. For sake of argument, it’s first down. The game is winnable, but the odds are well against it. [Gives Romney about an 18% chance of winning](http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php) (Silver’s at about 14% right now, so not bad) > [@](#): > > In baseball terms, Romney is two runs down in the bottom of the ninth, no outs, no one on, three-hitter at the plate. ['Bout a 9% chance of winning for Romney.](http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/other/wpa_inquirer.php?view=standard&runs=4.5&base=8&inning=18&outs=0&score=-2) > [@](#): > > Basketball? Down by seven with a minute to go. Assuming Obama’s the home team, [this gives Romney less than a 5% chance](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhEXxf9odCnMcElJaUZaUU43T1ZfTVBIUmtlTzE3VWc#gid=0). ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/114 "2012-11-05T19:36:10Z")
In my metaphor, Obama is a competent bowler. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/115 "2012-11-05T19:51:10Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > In my metaphor, Obama is a competent bowler. You know, I think we should stay within the frame of reality. (I said frame! Tee hee!) ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2012, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/116 "2012-11-05T19:56:56Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > You know, I think we should stay within the frame of reality. > > (I said frame! Tee hee!) Hey! The other metaphors talk about Obama being a batter, tennis player, or quarterback! Ok, fine. Here’s a new one: Obama holds a half-royal fizzbin, Romney almost has a schralk. And it’s a Tuesday! ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/117 "2012-11-06T02:10:02Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Here’s a new one: Obama holds a half-royal fizzbin, Romney almost has a schralk. And it’s a Tuesday! For those not in the know, that scenario means Obama has precisely a 91.4% chance to win. This is the same chance Obama has been given this evening by none other than FiveThirtyEight! What a coincidence! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/118 "2012-11-06T12:43:04Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > You know, I think we should stay within the frame of reality. > > (I said frame! Tee hee!) Spare us. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/119 "2012-11-06T12:45:07Z")
[Nate Silver with the poker analogy](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds): > [@](#): > > I hope you’ll excuse the cliché, but it’s appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. > > As any poker player knows, those 8 percent chances do come up once in a while. If it happens this year, then a lot of polling firms will have to re-examine their assumptions — and we will have to re-examine ours about how trustworthy the polls are. But the odds are that Mr. Obama will win another term. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603/120 "2012-11-06T12:49:45Z")
How about Olympic marathon, the Bams is coming down the home straight, the other runners haven’t entered the stadium yet. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obama-up-by-3-with-3-minutes-to-go-football-analogy/639603.md?page=7)