# ObamaCare: The Worst That Can Happen vs. Shutdown & Debt Ceiling **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 8, 2013, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702 "2013-10-08T18:09:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/21 "2013-10-08T19:00:34Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > Here I thought the individual mandate was the worst thing ever foisted upon the American people, but Terr her has informed me that it’s so inconsequential that nobody will even give it a second thought. The first year of it - definitely. > [@](#): > > Seems totally worth shutting the government down over. Democrats certainly seem to think so. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/22 "2013-10-08T19:01:58Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Democrats certainly seem to think so. NelsonHaha.gif ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/23 "2013-10-08T19:03:41Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > The fine for 2014 is $95 per adult and $47.50 per child or 1% of family income, whichever is greater. Wrong. It is $95 per person ($47.50 per child) **up to** a family maximum of $285, or 1 percent of family income, whichever is greater. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/24 "2013-10-08T19:09:04Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > Seems totally worth shutting the government down over. > [@Terr](#): > > The first year of it - definitely. > Democrats certainly seem to think so. Last chance: take this to another thread. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/25 "2013-10-08T19:11:04Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > Now, let’s compare that to the best case scenario that comes from shutting down the government. And the best case scenario that comes from not raising the debt ceiling. > > Even if ObamaCare is more negative than positive, can it be logically argued that it’s full implementation would be worse than a prolonged government shutdown and defaulting on the debt which is what many Republicans have said they are willing to do? I thought you said you wanted to talk about the _best_ case scenario. Refusing to raise the debt limit does not automatically result in defaulting on our debt ([cite](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2013/10/03/dont-believe-the-debt-ceiling-hype-the-federal-government-can-survive-without-an-increase/)). ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/26 "2013-10-08T19:25:44Z")
Here is why the question is so difficult to answer. There is no maximum for insuring your family and so worst case scenerio is that you cannot afford coverage for your family and then you pay the fines and still do not have coverage. As it is now, to cover my whole family would take up about 1/5 of my takehome pay AND it’s not 100% coverage so I have to pay $140 on top of that when Cad Jnr. had an infected toe and needed an HPV vaccination. So it’s not so different from what it was before except for the fact that Mrs. Cad has a problem that for the last 10 years we have been from doctor to doctor to see and not only do we pay out of pocket for insurance AND portions of the medical bills. Now she found a doctor that may help but he doesn’t take insurance so under Obamacare she’ll have to pay for insurance and this doctor and we have no choice in the matter. To which the natural question is: who pays when she goes to the hospital after a car accident. To which the natural answer is: the same people who would pay for the 11+ million illegal aliens that are specifically exempt from ACA. So to answer the OP: $3600 / year is what Obamacare is going to cost me above what I pay now and based on my situation at work (my individual insurance is $5/mo) it is not close to worst case. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/27 "2013-10-08T19:27:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I thought you said you wanted to talk about the _best_ case scenario. Refusing to raise the debt limit does not automatically result in defaulting on our debt ([cite](http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2013/10/03/dont-believe-the-debt-ceiling-hype-the-federal-government-can-survive-without-an-increase/)). May as well quote Rep. Ted Yoho who thinks it’s a great idea! Those are minority views, however. Just the hint that we might default in 2011 [cost taxpayers at least $1.3b dollars](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/07/23/gao-debt-ceiling-fight-cost-taxpayers-at-least-1-3-billion/) because of the slight increase in borrowing costs to the United States. So, even in this theoretical world where not coming to a resolution on the debt ceiling doesn’t cause a default, it won’t be any better than what happened just a couple years ago in reality, right? ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/28 "2013-10-08T19:41:32Z")
The other big consequence one way or the other is that if the Democrats give in, then this will become a legitimate and accepted tactic, and every future budget negotation will involve some group making a similar demand, etc., which could certainly have negative consequences on the US as a whole. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/29 "2013-10-08T19:55:20Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > May as well quote Rep. Ted Yoho who thinks it’s a great idea! Those are minority views, however. > > Just the hint that we might default in 2011 [cost taxpayers at least $1.3b dollars](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/07/23/gao-debt-ceiling-fight-cost-taxpayers-at-least-1-3-billion/) because of the slight increase in borrowing costs to the United States. > > So, even in this theoretical world where not coming to a resolution on the debt ceiling doesn’t cause a default, it won’t be any better than what happened just a couple years ago in reality, right? I didn’t suggest it was a great idea. I didn’t suggest there wouldn’t be consequences, just that defaulting on the debt doesn’t have to be one of them, unless Obama _really_ wants it to be. I think it’s wildly irresponsible to threaten or suggest the possibility we wouldn’t pay the interest on our national debt (and rather disingenuous to suggest that seniors won’t get SS checks) but I can’t control what Obama or the Democrats say, even if it will cause fear in investment circles that increase our borrowing costs. I understand it would be bad politics to be honest about the situation and say, “hey, look, this debt ceiling thing will be a real pain for a lot of people, but we really will pay the interest we owe our creditors, so you needn’t worry about that”, but it would be good policy. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/30 "2013-10-08T20:11:18Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I didn’t suggest it was a great idea. I didn’t suggest there wouldn’t be consequences, just that defaulting on the debt doesn’t have to be one of them, unless Obama _really_ wants it to be. NelsonHaha.gif ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/31 "2013-10-08T20:12:52Z")
**John\_Stamos’\_Left\_Ear** , as you may have figured out by now, you can’t post images here. In any case the haw-haw thing is kind of obnoxious, so cut it out. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/32 "2013-10-08T20:21:08Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > For the sake of debate, I’m going to assume that Republicans who are against ObamaCare are doing so out of a genuine concern that it will hurt this country. That is your FIRST mistake 😃 ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/33 "2013-10-08T20:24:09Z")
> [@Skip](#): > > Boehner is [on record](http://www.politicususa.com/2013/10/06/john-boehner-loses-melts-caught-debt-ceiling-lies.html) saying that the ACA is law and that he would pass a clean CR to avoid a shutdown: > > **He’s clearly lied**. Why should the Democrats trust any proposal the GOP puts forward with regards to the ACA at this point? Yeah, he lied. He is in fact, blocking a vote. Hence the move for a Discharge, to get around his obstruction. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/34 "2013-10-08T20:24:40Z")
Even this article from ABC News, entitled [Republicans Reject Debt Limit Doomsday Prediction](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republicans-reject-debt-limit-doomsday-predictions/story?id=20500649&singlePage=true)s, is telling: > [@](#): > > Their reasoning seems to revolve around the same thread: if we don’t know what’s going to happen because the country has never been down this road before, how can we be sure it’ll be so bad? > > “We don’t know, we haven’t ever done it,” Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Texas, told ABC News, when asked what happens if the debt limit isn’t increased on Oct. 17. And we have tried ObamaCare? (Actually we have; it’s RomneyCare in one state and it seems to have been an imperfect success.) This argument rings to me like the arguments of Creationists who say “Dinosaurs? Were you there?” Just as scientists can weigh in about events that happened long ago, economists can weigh in on what might happen in the future. > [@](#): > > Part two of this theory involves “prioritizing” debt payments, so that the government is able to pay the interest on the country’s debt, and postpone other payments. > > “We have about $25 billion a month in debt service and we have about $225 billion in revenues that we anticipate,” Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., told ABC News. “I think we’ll always service our debt so that we never default on our sovereign debt.” > > “It just becomes a priority of what are we going to pay or not pay thereafter,” he added. So we can default on some things, but not the important things, right? That’s what he is saying here. I am loathe to compare global economics with household finances because the analogies are almost always wrong, but how is this tactic any different than when it is bill time in a cash-strapped house and they decide that they have to pay the rent and utilities, credit cards will be paid the minimum (meaning interest is accrued) and of something has to go unpaid, it is something like the cable bill. This is fine for a house to live on, but the cable will eventually be shut off. What things will the government decide is a priority and what will get shut off? And who makes that decision? > [@](#): > > And in a report to Congress last week, the Treasury Department warned that two years ago in 2011 a near miss on this same issue caused long-lasting consequences to the economy. Yep. And that was just a near miss. > [@](#): > > An actual default, they warn, could cause credit markets to freeze, the value of the dollar to plummet, interest rates to skyrocket, in a way that could make the 2008 recession seem less severe. > > The warnings have come from the White House, economists, the business community and even from China, our biggest debtor, who in a statement yesterday warned lawmakers to “resolve in a timely way the political issues around the debt ceiling and prevent a US debt default.” So all of those people - including one of our creditors! - point out the dire consequences of this. But we are to believe those who say we should just “prioritize” or who claim that since it didn’t happen before, they have no idea what will occur. > [@](#): > > But a few Republicans view even that date as an arbitrary timeline used by the White House to gain leverage and kick long-term budget reforms down the road. > > By Rep. Tim Huelskamp’s calculations, we have “about five weeks” until the Treasury department faces a sizable enough payment that it might require it to raise the debt ceiling. Oh, so the deadline is not really a deadline. It’s all a sham. Well, we didn’t even pass the last deadline last time and it cost us almost 1.5 billion dollars. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/35 "2013-10-08T21:00:11Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > So we can default on some things, but not the important things, right? That’s what he is saying here. I am loathe to compare global economics with household finances because the analogies are almost always wrong, but how is this tactic any different than when it is bill time in a cash-strapped house and they decide that they have to pay the rent and utilities, credit cards will be paid the minimum (meaning interest is accrued) and of something has to go unpaid, it is something like the cable bill. I do not think that word means what you think it means. “[In finance, default occurs when a debtor has not met his or her legal obligations according to the debt contract, e.g. has not made a scheduled payment, or has violated a loan covenant (condition) of the debt contract. A default is the failure to pay back a loan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_(finance))” In other words, we _can_ default on paying the interest on the national debt. I could see someone making the argument that failing to pay SS would be a default of some sort or another, and maybe that argument could be stretched to other entitlements. It’s not a “default” if we decide to stop issuing NEA grants, or lay off the NPS goon squads, or stop giving out Obamaphones, or shutter the ATF. If Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling then Obama / Congress / whoever will have to prioritize critical spending vs non-critical spending, just like Obama’s doing now with the whole essential vs non-essential .gov “shutdown”. I hope and believe they’ll have the sense to realize that interest on the national debt should be a high priority. ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/36 "2013-10-08T22:30:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Their reasoning seems to revolve around the same thread: if we don’t know what’s going to happen because the country has never been down this road before, \*\*how can we be sure it’ll be so bad? > > “We don’t know, we haven’t ever done it,”\*\* Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Texas, told ABC News, when asked what happens if the debt limit isn’t increased on Oct. 17. I’ve never shoved bees up my ass. I’m pretty sure I won’t like the results. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2013, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/37 "2013-10-08T22:41:23Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I do not think that word means what you think it means. “[In finance, default occurs when a debtor has not met his or her legal obligations according to the debt contract, e.g. has not made a scheduled payment, or has violated a loan covenant (condition) of the debt contract. A default is the failure to pay back a loan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_(finance))” > > In other words, we _can_ default on paying the interest on the national debt. I could see someone making the argument that failing to pay SS would be a default of some sort or another, and maybe that argument could be stretched to other entitlements. It’s not a “default” if we decide to stop issuing NEA grants, or lay off the NPS goon squads, or stop giving out Obamaphones, or shutter the ATF. > > If Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling then Obama / Congress / whoever will have to prioritize critical spending vs non-critical spending, just like Obama’s doing now with the whole essential vs non-essential .gov “shutdown”. I hope and believe they’ll have the sense to realize that interest on the national debt should be a high priority. Just to supply some numbers to this: Interest on national debt 2013: ~$248B Federal Income tax revenue 2013: ~1,700B SS + Medicare payments 2013: ~$1,660B SS + Medicare tax revenue 2013: ~$960B Which means that without borrowing, US can cover interest on national debt, SS and Medicare, and have $752B left over. Add to that about $230B in other revenues, and that’s $982B left over. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/38 "2013-10-09T01:02:55Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > [House GOP's Third Shutdown Offer Would Delay Individual Mandate By One Year | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/30/house-gop-shutdown-2013_n_4018547.html) Your link of September 30 cites an unnamed individual in the Speaker’s office stating that there would be a “new continuing resolution with amendments attached to it that will delay Obamacare’s individual mandate for one year.” But, as of today, I can find no evidence that a bill allowing the Affordable Care Act to be implemented as of January 1, without the mandate, has been passed. Here’s where to look: > **[Congressional Votes Database - GovTrack.us](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes#chamber=2)** What you may be missing is that the premiums private insurance companies are offering in the exchanges are based on expectations concerning what type of people will sign up for the plans. Without the mandate, people who have a history of not using a lot of health care will be less likely to take out the insurance, and the companies will find that their rates were set too low. So: Taking away the $95/one percent of income tax fine would cheat insurers out of a lot of money. There is therefore no way it could pass, and that person in the speaker’s office was obviously in error as to what would happen. The only GOP one year proposal is to tell all the people who are counting on being insured, at rates they can afford, starting January, to wait a year. And the obvious intent is to extend that so they wait forever. They when they get seriously ill, they will not pay their bills, and go bankrupt, with the cost of their care socialized. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/39 "2013-10-09T01:15:18Z")
Not paying all of our obligations other than the debt would be nearly as bad as not paying the debt. We, as a society, have made a decision to spend money, and suddenly changing our minds about the whole thing amounts to a major shift in the social contract. This will result in people getting angry. It is not a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2013, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702/40 "2013-10-09T01:15:43Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > So: Taking away the $95/one percent of income tax fine would cheat insurers out of a lot of money. It is not one percent of income tax fine. It is $95 per individual, _capped_ at one percent. And no, I don’t think a fine of $95 per year will induce people to buy insurance that costs $100-$200-$300 a month. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamacare-the-worst-that-can-happen-vs-shutdown-debt-ceiling/670702.md?page=3)