# Obama's Libyan Adventure-Will It End Badly?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [March 22, 2011, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628 "2011-03-22T17:40:56Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 17

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**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/321 "2011-04-08T20:18:11Z")

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[QUOTE=Magiver]  
NATO=America when it comes to the coordination of the group. Gaddafi’s army is an easy target for NATO forces. It’s fucked up because that leadership is missing.  
[/QUOTE]

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but hasn’t the US stepped back from a lead role in all this? I could have swore I read that the US had pretty much moved into the background, and that this was now (and has been for a while) basically a NATO lead (read: non-US) effort.

-XT

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**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/322 "2011-04-08T20:58:13Z")

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> [@elucidator](#):
>
> Drudge? \* Drudge!?!?\* Get real.

I would hope you realize that Drudge’s page is basically just a link source to other news outlets. Rare that they publish their own story

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**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/323 "2011-04-08T22:03:58Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> The reports coming out are puzzling-the US forces are not conducting any more airstrikes..this leaves the UK and France, pls a few smaller NATO forces. Why is this?  
> Then, Drudge reports that US generals are considering sending in ground forces.  
> Is Kaddafi winning now?  
> Looks like a bad outcome for something poorly thought out.

“Things that might happen” are not “outcomes”.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/324 "2011-04-08T23:21:40Z")

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> [@xtisme](#):
>
> Correct me if I’m wrong here, but hasn’t the US stepped back from a lead role in all this? I could have swore I read that the US had pretty much moved into the background, and that this was now (and has been for a while) basically a NATO lead (read: non-US) effort.
> 
> -XT

that would be the point of my post. We moved into the background and it immediately fell apart. The direction of this falls on the President Obama as Commander in chief.

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/325 "2011-04-08T23:25:24Z")

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> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#):
>
> “Things that might happen” are not “outcomes”.

The things happening now is a military campaign so poorly coordinated that the people we’re trying to help no longer want it. There is a lack of leadership in this venture.

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**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/326 "2011-04-08T23:37:20Z")

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> [@Magiver](#):
>
> The direction of this falls on the President Obama as Commander in chief.

That we are involved at all is an indictment of Obama as Commander in Chief.

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**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\
**Post date:** [April 8, 2011, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/327 "2011-04-08T23:48:56Z")

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Yeah! Obama’s an asshole for getting us involved; and doubly an asshole for not getting us involved enough!

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**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [April 9, 2011, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/328 "2011-04-09T04:17:42Z")

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> [@Jack\_Batty](#):
>
> Yeah! Obama’s an asshole for getting us involved; and doubly an asshole for not getting us involved enough!

If you volunteer to help with the Titanic disaster and you repeatedly run over the survivors with a speedboat without picking them up then it’s hard to take credit for a successful rescue.

To do this right involves inserting a forward group in the affected area to establish communication/coordination as well as direct incoming munitions. It’s pointless to fling 1.3 million dollar missiles at a 4th world dictator and then pick at it willy nilly.

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**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\
**Post date:** [April 9, 2011, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/329 "2011-04-09T11:00:10Z")

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Yeeeehaaaa! How about napalm? Can we drop some of that too, because that shit is cool. Just think, in a couple of months we can start stacking up naked brown people again and all will be right in the world.

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**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\
**Post date:** [June 14, 2011, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/330 "2011-06-14T17:24:13Z")

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I am confused…our great leader said (in his war speech) that Ghadafi’s fall was to be “in days , not weeks”.  
How did we go wrong?  
Is the Libyan Adventure actually going to be anothern costly, open ended war?

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**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\
**Post date:** [June 14, 2011, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/331 "2011-06-14T17:49:56Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> I am confused..our great leader said (in his war speech) that Ghadafi’s fall was to be “in days , not weeks”.  
> How did we go wrong?  
> Is the Libyan Adventure actually going to be anothern costly, open ended war?

You went wrong. He didn’t say that the fall would be in “days, not weeks.” He said our role in the bombing would last that long, before changing to a supporting role.

Is it really a quagmire if no US troops are fighting and dying?

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**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\
**Post date:** [June 14, 2011, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/332 "2011-06-14T18:30:32Z")

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Why, it’s just like Iraq!

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**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/333 "2011-06-16T00:05:00Z")

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Can’t Obama seek outlets for his bloodlust by killing hobos and hookers like the rest of us? I have to admit though that calling it a “kinetic action” instead of war is an all time classic. [This lawsuit](http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2011/06/lawmakers-sue-president-obama-over-illegal-libya-war.html) probably won’t do anything, but it’s better than nothing I guess.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/334 "2011-06-16T00:06:33Z")

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Shades of Clinton’s, “What is is”

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**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/335 "2011-06-16T00:22:46Z")

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I suppose “it’s not hostilities its armed drones killing people,” is marginally better than “it’s not torture it’s enhanced interrogation,” but both are euphemisms to avoid the law. I wouldn’t want the GOP Congress fucking up my war in an election year either, but thems the breaks.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/336 "2011-06-16T09:26:00Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> I am confused..our great leader said (in his war speech) that Ghadafi’s fall was to be “in days , not weeks”.  
> How did we go wrong?  
> Is the Libyan Adventure actually going to be anothern costly, open ended war?

No.

So **ralph124c** - when exactly are Russia and China going to start bombing us? You seemed very sure of this in your OP.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/337 "2011-06-16T11:50:05Z")

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Well, Ghadafi has proven resilient. This sggests two things:  
-he has a lot more military eqipment than we thought  
-he has access to cash-either he is shipping oil, or has access to bank acconts  
So, if this thing drags on for years, what will Obama do?  
I think it will end badly.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/338 "2011-06-16T13:00:31Z")

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> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> Well, Ghadafi has proven resilient. This sggests two things:  
> -he has a lot more military eqipment than we thought  
> -he has access to cash-either he is shipping oil, or has access to bank acconts  
> So, if this thing drags on for years, what will Obama do?  
> I think it will end badly.

Ghadafi has proved stubborn (and, to some extent, lucky). He does have the army on his side (unlike in Egypt) and (also unlike Egypt) he’s determined to stay in power until someone kills him. In the short term that’s a viable strategy but unless the opposition forces (including foreign forces) let up, it’s suicidal in the long term. I don’t think this _can_ drag on for years, at least not in its current form. And what Obama does depends on what this becomes.

I’m sure Ghadafi has secret stashes of money but interestingly it’s the rebels who are currently selling oil (via Qatar IIRC). They’re also more organized now, with a better-defined command structure.

Will this end badly? War rarely ends well. Even if Ghadafi slips on the soap and dies tonight there will still be thousands dead, infrastructure destroyed, a power vacuum and huge amount of constitutional reform to do, and general chaos and confusion. No one can afford a Marshall Plan-style reconstruction even if one were welcome, and the ownership of the oil infrastructure is going to be unsettled for a long time.

So Libya is a mess and is going to remain a mess for a long time. What has failed to be demonstrated is that the US involvement has made it more so - I would argue that it has actually helped - and whether it was worth it, which only time will tell.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\
**Post date:** [June 16, 2011, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/339 "2011-06-16T15:09:19Z")

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> [@Richard\_Parker](#):
>
> I suppose “it’s not hostilities its armed drones killing people,” is marginally better than “it’s not torture it’s enhanced interrogation,” but both are euphemisms to avoid the law. I wouldn’t want the GOP Congress fucking up my war in an election year either, but thems the breaks.

He has to fight members of his own party on this.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\
**Post date:** [June 18, 2011, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obamas-libyan-adventure-will-it-end-badly/575628/340 "2011-06-18T01:52:19Z")

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We can’t say the W word. Obama just said he doesn’t have to ask Congress to continue this adventure…nor does he plan on telling us what its costing him.

I wish our spineless Congress would blast him for this.

edit: [linky](http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/06/boehner-libya-war-powers-obama-escalation.html)

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