# Objectively, is Donald Trump a good businessman? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 28, 2017, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015 "2017-02-28T06:25:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/61 "2017-03-02T16:43:16Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Because it was in response to the post claiming " if he’d simply put his **inheritance** into a portfolio of index funds, he’d have as much or more now than he does." Which could very well be true. Trump was worth about $1.5 billion in 1999. He puts the inheritance ($50-$200 million) into index funds (which almost double), does whatever he does with the $1.5 billion, and is now worth $3-$4 billion. If you were trying to disprove that statement, you failed utterly. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/62 "2017-03-02T17:05:30Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Which could very well be true. Trump was worth about $1.5 billion in 1999. He puts the inheritance ($50-$200 million) into index funds (which almost double), does whatever he does with the $1.5 billion, and is now worth $3-$4 billion. > > If you were trying to disprove that statement, you failed utterly. The point is, the inheritance itself was a small portion of his total worth both then and now. Harping on it is disingenuous. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/63 "2017-03-02T17:14:58Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > The point is, the inheritance itself was a small portion of his total worth both then and now. Harping on it is disingenuous. If that’s what you think, why didn’t you say so in the first place, instead of citing numbers that made for a bogus argument? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/64 "2017-03-02T17:20:20Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > If that’s what you think, why didn’t you say so in the first place, instead of citing numbers that made for a bogus argument? The numbers show that the inheritance, invested in index funds, would not be a hugely significant portion of Trump’s net worth. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/65 "2017-03-02T17:22:08Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > The numbers show that the inheritance, invested in index funds, would not be a hugely significant portion of Trump’s net worth. That depends on his TRUE net worth. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/66 "2017-03-02T17:34:23Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > The numbers show that the inheritance, invested in index funds, would not be a hugely significant portion of Trump’s net worth. So if he’d invested the inheritance in index funds he’d be worth about the same as he is now? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/67 "2017-03-02T17:42:29Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > So if he’d invested the inheritance in index funds he’d be worth about the same as he is now? Less. 1999 Forbes estimate $1.6B (Trump’s estimate: $4.5B). 2016: Forbes estimate: $4.5B (Trump’s estimate: $10B) According to Forbes, the wealth tripled. According to Trump, it more than doubled. If it was in index funds, it at most would have doubled. But in any case, the ~100M back then (and potentially-index-fund-grown ~200M today) would be a tiny portion of Trump’s fortune. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/68 "2017-03-02T17:52:02Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Would Bill Gates have been anything without a rich Dad and a Mum who was besties with the CEO of IBM? > Would Antony Kennedy have made it to the United States Supreme Court if he had not taken over his father’s practice? > Would Justin Trudeau be PM of Canada if his Dad had not been? I think Bill Gates and Anthony Kennedy, at least, did much better than other people with the same advantages. Lots of people inherit law practices. Bill Gates Sr was well off (successful lawyer) but not the equivalent of a modern billionaire. Even for Trudeau, what other son of a PM of Canada become one himself? The more meaningful question is, did Donald Trump do much better than other people who were in a position to get ~$200 million from their parents? ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/69 "2017-03-02T18:14:06Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > But in any case, the ~100M back then (and potentially-index-fund-grown ~200M today) would be a tiny portion of Trump’s fortune. Exactly my point. The 1999 inheritance is a small portion of Trump’s fortune, and he be worth the same amount now (since all we have are estimates, anyway) having put that money in an index fund or anywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/70 "2017-03-02T18:18:36Z")
By the time Gates got the IBM deal Microsoft was already the main power in the PC BASIC market, with his interpreter being, IIRC, IBM’s initial interest for their own PC. When IBM came knocking, having been rebuffed by Kildall, they didn’t meet him in his mom’s basement. ---
**Author:** ![MikeF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@MikeF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeF)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/71 "2017-03-02T19:50:30Z")
Early on the the campaign someone on TV or radio said that, if Trump took the initial loan and put it in an index fund (if they existed at the time) he would be worth far more than he is today, whatever that might be. Therefore, he did less than average over time and that makes him a less than average businessman. I have no idea if this is accurate or not. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/72 "2017-03-02T20:10:36Z")
> [@MikeF](#): > > Early on the the campaign someone on TV or radio said that, if Trump took the initial loan and put it in an index fund (if they existed at the time) he would be worth far more than he is today, whatever that might be. Therefore, he did less than average over time and that makes him a less than average businessman. I have no idea if this is accurate or not. The initial loan was $1M in 1975. Dow Jones was 802. Let’s say the top is 20000 (although it was achieved only very recently, but just for argument’s sake). That would grow the $1M to $25M. That’s a bit short of what Trump’s worth today, wouldn’t you say? Let’s say a different loan - there is a claim that Trump’s father loaned him $14M in 1985. Put into an index fund, it’d be worth a whopping $180M today. A nice sum, but again, not anywhere near Trump’s net worth. Stop with the “index fund” crap. ---
**Author:** ![aktep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f0a364/32.png) [@aktep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aktep)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/73 "2017-03-02T21:35:10Z")
You’re ignoring that index funds pay dividends, which can be taken as income or reinvested, so you can’t just use the daily DJIA as a way of tracking the value of the investment. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2017, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/74 "2017-03-02T22:21:45Z")
For those interested, [here seems to be a pretty balanced view](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-09-03/should-donald-trump-have-indexed-)of the question of Trumps net worth vs S&P500. > [@](#): > > So you can roughly say that Trump outperformed the S&P from 1974 through 1987, underperformed from 1988 through 1999, and slightly outperformed since. That middle period was rough. Abelson writes: > > ``` > Before this year’s presidential race, the grandest triumph Trump had managed was staying on his feet during his 1990s disaster as the economy fell out from under him. He lost the Plaza, the yacht, and the airline, and the casinos filed for bankruptcy—but he himself didn’t, as he reminds his crowds on the campaign trail. > > ``` > > … > > But his performance over the whole 41-year period was at least modestly better than the S&P. If you timed the market right, you’d have done better than him. Congratulations to you on being so good at timing the market. So in my opinion, outside of the self promotion which I admit he’s a master at, he probably did about as well as an average MBA would have given similar circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/75 "2017-03-03T01:41:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Okrahoma** : > > Let’s say a different loan - there is a claim that Trump’s father loaned him $14M in 1985. Put into an index fund, it’d be worth a whopping $180M today. A nice sum, but again, not anywhere near Trump’s net worth. Right, that’s not anywhere near his net worth, because unlike his net worth, that $180M is a positive number. Donald Trump is underwater. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/76 "2017-03-03T02:53:08Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Objectively, he’s underperformed the rest of the country in the real estate market by 57%. > > [Has Donald Trump Underperformed In The Real Estate Business?](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesleadershipforum/2016/03/03/has-donald-trump-underperformed-in-the-real-estate-business/#1c72dfe44bfd) > > And outbullshitted them by 100,000,000%. This is kind of key. Comparing his financial performance to index funds as some have done is a very low standard for investing truly large amounts of money. It’s a great way to be diversified at low cost, but that’s not what, say, well-managed pension funds do. They always seem to turn up as partners in highly profitable private enterprises. Suppose, for instance, that he had used his inheritance and/or his father’s backing to do nothing more than quietly buy commercial and residential real estate in major urban markets and leveraging it with mortgages sustained by lease income. If you look at the trajectory of real estate in most big urban markets from almost any starting point in the latter part of the 20th century, you’d have to be a special kind of idiot to NOT make a fortune from the capital appreciation alone. He’d probably have been much better off than his string of ill-advised failed ventures and scams. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/77 "2017-03-03T03:04:58Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Gates had actual talent that didn’t require a ton of capital to get moving. I think he would have wound up just as big had his parents been lower middle class. I don’t believe Gates ever cheated anyone, didn’t stiff his suppliers, and didn’t grab women by the pussy. Talent plus hard work trumps cheating your way up starting from a small fortune. Even if Gates started in a relatively affluent family, they weren’t “richest man in the world” rich. Plenty of rich kids end up as total fuckups. I realize it’s a bit of an affront to this board’s liberal sensibilities, but it’s entirely possible for Trump to be a complete jerk AND have made a lot of money in Manhattan real estate. Having spent the past 17 years working in New York, I kind of feel like one of the best ways to be successful in Manhattan real estate is to have the ability to afford to buy real estate in Manhattan. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/78 "2017-03-03T09:25:31Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > Even if Gates started in a relatively affluent family, they weren’t “richest man in the world” rich. Plenty of rich kids end up as total fuckups. > > I realize it’s a bit of an affront to this board’s liberal sensibilities, but it’s entirely possible for Trump to be a complete jerk AND have made a lot of money in Manhattan real estate. Having spent the past 17 years working in New York, I kind of feel like one of the best ways to be successful in Manhattan real estate is to have the ability to afford to buy real estate in Manhattan. Or in any very highly demanded urban central market, the skill of being the real estate promoter / developer is something narrow and indeed tied to the capital access. The ‘debate’ about if he could have done better by the index fund investment since there is no good data, is very sterile. What is possible to do is to look at the public record and see a performance in comparison to the peer businesses. In the real estate in Manhattan, in the operational businesses like the casino business, the airline, etc., and in the branding / marketing businesses. Each of these, it is a different aspect of “businessman” in the common language. He has done well in the last, and should be said to be truly very skilled, objectively a master. He has very clearly done very badly in the operational businesses requiring the operational management skills of at least the moderately complex operations - so badly to say he was the complete failure, and not even only mediocre, but truly beyond his skills and capacities. I do not know about the first. So the area where perhaps there is the most relevance to being the President, which is the second, the objective track record is not success, it is not even not being good. It is the complete failure. ---
**Author:** ![standingwave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@standingwave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/standingwave)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/79 "2017-03-03T10:22:52Z")
Yes, Donald was born on third base, took risks and was fortunate. According to the following article, the father is the more interesting story. The son merely went from “rich to even richer, which is more easily accomplished.” > [@](#): > > [How Donald Trump got rich](http://www.businessinsider.com/how-donald-trump-got-rich-2016-3)(Business Insider) > > **Trump could have bought pieces of Manhattan real estate at random** — and at fair market prices without bothering to negotiate — \*\*and still achieved those returns. \*\* > > Add in a bit of leverage, and Trump’s earnings were extraordinary. To this day, despite all of his other business ventures, New York real estate makes up about 60% of the value of his personal portfolio, based on a detailed asset review by Forbes. > It must be said, however, that **Trump took an extraordinary risk.** > New York recovered powerfully from its 1970s slump. Had Trump bet his millions of dollars in capital on a recovery in Detroit, his life story would have been rather different. > So, if Trump were to write a book on what really made him rich, it would be something like: **“The Art of Taking Huge Risks with Huge Amounts of Start-Up Capital,”** which would be an interesting book, although I do admit “The Art of the Deal” is catchier. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2017, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015/80 "2017-03-03T10:26:46Z")
The guy likes to take risks. Always has. Sometimes he goes bankrupt. Othertimes he gets to be elected President of the United States. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/objectively-is-donald-trump-a-good-businessman/781015.md?page=5)