# ObL Tape: Will it affect the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915 "2004-10-29T20:04:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![El\_Zagna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d2c977/32.png) [@El\_Zagna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Zagna)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/41 "2004-10-29T21:22:46Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Oh, bull. Do you think all of the Unabomber’s demands to print his treatises should have been published? As a matter of fact, yes. IIRC that’s how he was caught. His brother read the transcripts and said “Wow, that sounds like Teddy.” > [@](#): > > I’m issuing a statement right now, and I demand CNN air it. They’re not? My first-amendment rights are being denied! :rolleyes: But you’re not newsworthy. That’s all the difference in the world. > [@](#): > > bin Laden is trying to influence our elections. If you let him, you’ve given him a lot of power. How do you know that? Who are you to decide? Who in the media gets to make this call? In which way is he trying to influence our elections - for Kerry or for Bush? Let’s assume that the video will actually have an effect on the elections. If you don’t air it you are influencing the outcome because you are witholding important information from the voters; if you do air it you are influencing the outcome because you have given them some additional information to chew on. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/42 "2004-10-29T21:22:47Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > The Fox team is already trying to spin the “he’s still alive” problem, saying it took 20 years to find the Unibomber. Of course, the major problem there was that we didn’t know his name or general location for 20 years, but nevermind! What is the general location of bin Laden? ---
**Author:** ![Cluricaun](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/bb73d2/32.png) [@Cluricaun](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cluricaun)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/43 "2004-10-29T21:24:49Z")
It could work if Kerry had an epiphany and tore into the issue like a gut shot wolverine, but his attack mode is more along the GI Joe Kung Fu Grip lines of effectiveness. ---
**Author:** ![RikWriter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/49beb7/32.png) [@RikWriter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RikWriter)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/44 "2004-10-29T21:25:53Z")
> [@Rashak Mani](#): > > hhmm… if Osama doesn’t say anything beyond Allah is great and the US is not… I venture that both sides will see it differently. > > Dopers will see it as a failure by Bush… Bushites will see it as trying to “scare” americans to vote for Kerry. Please don’t pretend to speak for everyone here. I am a “doper” in that I post here and contributed to the site, and I certainly don’t agree with YOU. ---
**Author:** ![gum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bbe5ce/32.png) [@gum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gum)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/45 "2004-10-29T21:26:07Z")
Do you think maybe Rove had him hiding in his tree-house and only now let him out? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/46 "2004-10-29T21:26:07Z")
This is where we see Kerry’s true character. He’s a fighter. He’ll come out and say “here OBL is, making fun of Americans, making fun of the President, and making a mockery of us Americans. I won’t let that happen and its a shame that the man is still out there scaring us. He shouldn’t be free now, and if I were in charge he wouldn’t be free much longer.” /wishful thinking But Bush’s strong suit is indeed the war on terror, John, but what effect will this have on it? Will it make Bush seem ineffective on terror? Will it simply remind people of terror and nothing else? Who knows. ---
**Author:** ![vibrotronica](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a9a28c/32.png) [@vibrotronica](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vibrotronica)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/47 "2004-10-29T21:27:24Z")
I think it is a wash, and will have no effect on the elections. I will see it as proof positive that Bush’s policies have failed, those on the other side will see it as proof that Bush needs to remain in office to fight evil. The only possible affect this could have would be to supress turnout, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Everybody’s too fired up. Kerry should continue his current line of attack. He’s already saying that Iraq was a distraction from the real fight against al Q. He’s right, and this only reinforces it. See? I told you that’s how I would see it. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/48 "2004-10-29T21:29:58Z")
Of course, Kerry’s polls, counterintuitively to those security polls, do seem to rise when security issues are in the news. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/49 "2004-10-29T21:29:59Z")
> [@Merkwurdigliebe](#): > > But Bush’s strong suit is indeed the war on terror, John, but what effect will this have on it? Will it make Bush seem ineffective on terror? Will it simply remind people of terror and nothing else? Who knows. For whatever reason, fear plays into Bush’s hands. I was listenning to NPR today in the car, and they were discussing a survey of students. Most students would prefer Kerry as a teacher, but most would prefer Bush as a father or a boss. Bush is seen as more of an authority figure, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/50 "2004-10-29T21:30:20Z")
So, let’s see…If it helps Bush, then it means that ObL wants Bush which means we should vote for Kerry. Ah, but maybe that may be exactly what ObL is expecting us to think and so he figures it will help Kerry, so we should vote for Bush… Oh, but maybe ObL’s got that angle covered too… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/51 "2004-10-29T21:31:15Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Well, it looks like I was wrong about UBL being dead. You’re not alone. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/52 "2004-10-29T21:32:02Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > So, let’s see…If it helps Bush, then it means that ObL wants Bush which means we should vote for Kerry. Ah, but maybe that may be exactly what ObL is expecting us to think and so he figures it will help Kerry, so we should vote for Bush…) He doesn’t know that we know that he doesn’t know that we know that he… Ever see that \*Friends \*episode? ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/53 "2004-10-29T21:32:22Z")
How it affects the election depends upon how the candidates react to it, of course. Kerry will most probably use it as an excuse to continue hammering Bush for taking his eye off the threat. It’s a pretty good argument, after all, that three years after 9/11 the man responsible for the murders of 3000+ Americans is still out there plotting to do it again due to the incompetence of the Bush team. Bush will use it to remind voters of the threats we face from people who hate our freedom, that Kerry won’t protect America from terrorists, that invading Iraq was vital to the war on terrorism, and that–wink wink, nudge nudge–the things bin Laden says on that tape sound an awful lot like what my opponent has said. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/54 "2004-10-29T21:34:11Z")
I guess we can put ObL firmly in the undecided camp. It also takes most, if not all, of the steam out of the idea that the terrorists want Kerry to win. ---
**Author:** ![Muad\_Dib](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/35a633/32.png) [@Muad\_Dib](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muad_Dib)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/55 "2004-10-29T21:35:25Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > How the heck can this be good for Bush? It shows that OBL and Al Qaida are alive and well, and that Bush’s policies have been utterly unsuccessful at deterring them. How many terrorist attacks have there been on American soil since 9/11? None. All have been in Iraq where he told terrorists to “bring it on”. Don’t forget that before the primaries even Kerry was saying that Bush has done a great job with the war on terror. ---
**Author:** ![Muad\_Dib](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/35a633/32.png) [@Muad\_Dib](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muad_Dib)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/56 "2004-10-29T21:38:56Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > He doesn’t know that we know that he doesn’t know that we know that he… > > Ever see that \*Friends \*episode? Ever the _The Princes Bride_? Inconceivable! ---
**Author:** ![Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@Kel\_Varnsen\_Latex\_Division](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kel_Varnsen_Latex_Division)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/57 "2004-10-29T21:40:36Z")
Watching CNN now, the Bush campaign aide seems to be on the defensive and the Kerry campaign aide seemed to be on the offensive. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/58 "2004-10-29T21:42:16Z")
OBL did Bush a huge favor by pushing the explosives fiasco off the front page. Other than that, I don’t see a difference, particularly since he didn’t express a difference between the two. Those who have the impression that Bush is better against terror were going to vote for him anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/59 "2004-10-29T21:45:09Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > He doesn’t know that we know that he doesn’t know that we know that he… During his time in Afganistan, Osama built up a resistance to iocaine powder. 🙂 I’ll mention that I think any candidate that goes overboard in politicizing this will alienate the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/60 "2004-10-29T21:46:15Z")
[http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018](http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018) > [@](#): > > Osama bin Laden, reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks He basically threatened the people of the US to look for more trouble here if we don’t leave the middle east. Now that ain’t gonna happen no time soon. I look for Bush to put the heat on this weekend and Osama will probably turn up in a couple of days (dead or alive) They already said they knew where he was, it was simply a matter of pinning him down. There will be some clue on the tape they can use and just bomb the shit out of it. This threat just gave him an excuse to do it. surprise… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=4)