# ObL Tape: Will it affect the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915 "2004-10-29T20:04:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Metacom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecae2f/32.png) [@Metacom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Metacom)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/61 "2004-10-29T22:01:37Z")
OK, so if this will help Bush more then Kerry (which, at this point, I tend to believe), the obvious question is: Is that the reason Osama released it? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/62 "2004-10-29T22:03:12Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Those who have the impression that Bush is better against terror were going to vote for him anyway. Well, CNN is reporting, as I type this, that people prefer Bush to Kerry on the issue of fighting terror 53 to 37. According to you, Bush has a lock on the election!! ---
**Author:** ![Muad\_Dib](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/35a633/32.png) [@Muad\_Dib](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muad_Dib)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/63 "2004-10-29T22:04:58Z")
> [@Metacom](#): > > OK, so if this will help Bush more then Kerry (which, at this point, I tend to believe), the obvious question is: Is that the reason Osama released it? :dubious: I don’t think that Osama really cares who is president. He only cares about his power to influence the world, and this video, whether for Kerry or Bushs favor, will influence the election thus proving Osamas power. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/64 "2004-10-29T22:07:35Z")
Has Osama said anything specifically about Iraq? I haven’t heard anything yet. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/65 "2004-10-29T22:07:51Z")
> [@adam yax](#): > > I guess we can put ObL firmly in the undecided camp. It also takes most, if not all, of the steam out of the idea that the terrorists want Kerry to win. Yeah…My guess is that even Osama himself doesn’t really know how it is going to play out. And, to be honest, he probably doesn’t care just as long as he gets some credit for influencing the elections one way or the other…It is a power-trip thing. And, given that the two candidates are basically tied and that one will end up winning on Tuesday (presumably), Osama will be able to claim that he decided the election whichever way it goes…And it will be difficult to disprove that claim. > [@JohnMace](#): > > Ever see that _Friends_ episode? No…But when I wrote what I did, I was thinking of the line in one of the Airplane movies where Shatner says, “But wait…That’s exactly what they’re expecting us to do!” (which of course would make perfect sense in his Star Trek persona where he is trying to outwit an enemy but makes no sense in the context of when he says it…which is of course the joke). ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/66 "2004-10-29T22:09:03Z")
Simulpost with **Muad’Dib**! ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/67 "2004-10-29T22:09:20Z")
> [@Muad'Dib](#): > > I don’t think that Osama really cares who is president. He only cares about his power to influence the world, and this video, whether for Kerry or Bushs favor, will influence the election thus proving Osamas power. …which is the bottom line, and well said. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/68 "2004-10-29T22:13:07Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > YOsama will be able to claim that he decided the election whichever way it goes…And it will be difficult to disprove that claim. Well, just have him post that in this forum, and we’ll rip it to pieces and explain which logical fallacy he’s using. That’ll show him! ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/69 "2004-10-29T22:16:51Z")
Not in so many words **John** but read this article right quick [http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018](http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018) Osama bin Laden, reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/70 "2004-10-29T22:19:54Z")
[Excerpts](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10079-2004Oct29.html) > [@](#): > > "O American people, I am speaking to tell you about the ideal way to avoid another Manhattan, about war and its causes and results. > > "Security is an important foundation of human life and free people do not squander their security, contrary to Bush’s claims that we hate freedom. Let him tell us why we did not attack Sweden for example. > > "It is known that those who hate freedom do not possess proud souls like those of the 19, may God rest their souls. We fought you because we are free and because we want freedom for our nation. When you squander our security we squander yours. > > "I am surprised by you. Despite entering the fourth year after Sept. 11, Bush is still deceiving you and hiding the truth from you and therefore the reasons are still there to repeat what happened. > > "God knows it did not cross our minds to attack the towers but after the situation became unbearable and we witnessed the injustice and tyranny of the American-Israeli alliance against our people in Palestine and Lebanon, I thought about it. And the events that affected me directly were that of 1982 and the events that followed – when America allowed the Israelis to invade Lebanon, helped by the U.S. Sixth Fleet. > > "In those difficult moments many emotions came over me which are hard to describe, but which produced an overwhelming feeling to reject injustice and a strong determination to punish the unjust. > > "As I watched the destroyed towers in Lebanon, it occurred to me punish the unjust the same way (and) to destroy towers in America so it could taste some of what we are tasting and to stop killing our children and women. > > "We had no difficulty in dealing with Bush and his administration because they resemble the regimes in our countries, half of which are ruled by the military and the other half by the sons of kings … They have a lot of pride, arrogance, greed and thievery. > > "He (Bush) adopted despotism and the crushing of freedoms from Arab rulers and called it the Patriot Act under the guise of combating terrorism… > > "We had agreed with the (the Sept. 11) overall commander Mohammed Atta, may God rest his soul, to carry out all operations in 20 minutes before Bush and his administration take notice. > > "It never occurred to us that the commander in chief of the American forces (Bush) would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone at a time when they most needed him because he thought listening to a child discussing her goat and its ramming was more important than the planes and their ramming of the skyscrapers. This had given us three times the time needed to carry out the operations, thanks be to God… > > "Your security is not in the hands of (Democratic presidential candidate John) Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/71 "2004-10-29T22:21:42Z")
[Bush, Kerry responses](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10078-2004Oct29.html) No surprises. They both say pretty much what you’d expect. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/72 "2004-10-29T22:23:21Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > [Excerpts](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10079-2004Oct29.html) Thanks for the link. Osama is speaking direclty to me-- I need to go take a shower. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/73 "2004-10-29T22:31:11Z")
I have to say that the west is accused a lot of not understanding the middle eastern but OBL has the west don’t pat. I agree with the AQ expert I just saw on BBC. He says that OBL doesn’t care who leads America. Either way he’ll go on about his job of terrorising and recruiting in his holy war one way or the other. The timing will ensure that this tape and his message will get the widest audience possible. The seeds of fear and dissent will hopefully be planted in the US population and the Muslim world will se that he is still there fighting the good fight :dubious: He was definitely trying to look more statesman like. No cave, gun or combat clothes. Well dressed in what looked like a well lit studio. He’s trying to give the impression of being on top of his shit. A divided America, Europe and NATO is all good for OBL. Unfortunately the public egged on my the sensationalist press and belligerent talking heads will go apeshit about this one way or the other. People will see this from a pro-Kerry POV or a pro-Bush POV. What should happen is that **all** right thinking people be they politicians, anchormen, Dem, Rep, left wing, right wing or anything else turn their back on the extremist cunt and with one voice reject everything he says as meaningless to them. Then vote in who they want **for their own reasons** and then go kill the motherfucker and all his **terrorist** buddies. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/74 "2004-10-29T22:31:45Z")
Apparently, the US ambassador to Qatar tried to keep Al Jazzy from airing the tape. Not sure whether that really means Bush is all excited about this. In fact, his statement on MSNBC was actually sort of scared when he lamely asked that Kerry not use the tape against him in the election (I’m sooooo sure his surrogates will play by the same rules, right? Right?) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/75 "2004-10-29T22:32:15Z")
It hurts Bush, here’s why: Everyone agrees that if Bush had delivered OBL’s head on a plate right before the election it would have been the ultimate “October Surprise”, winning lots of votes for the “wartime” president. So … if instead getting OBL’s head on a plate, we get his doleful mug on videotape taunting us … that’s somehow supposed to help Bush too? Uh huh … right … . All this is is evidence of Bush’s failure. It doesn’t matter what OBL says. He’s a terrorist. He’ll make up whatever lie he thought would help his cause. The important thing is that he’s still alive and free, not dead or in jail. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/76 "2004-10-29T22:33:35Z")
As I think I said a while ago about the Madrid bombings, I’m not sure they care which way it influences the elections. They only care about showing off that they can make us jump AND influence elections. It’s basically a way of throwing their weight around and showing the world that they matter more than anything else people might vote on. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/77 "2004-10-29T22:36:14Z")
Just heard both Bush’s and Kerry’s responses. I was impressed. Both showed a lot of class and basically said “We’re all Americans, and we all agree that he’s the enemy”. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/78 "2004-10-29T22:40:02Z")
**minty:** _Bush will use it to remind voters of the threats we face from people who hate our freedom_ Considering how recently his own Secretary of Defense was downplaying the bin Laden threat, though, I don’t see how Bush can play that card without coming across as a flip-flopper: > [@](#): > > [Rumsfeld: Bin Laden irrelevant](http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD%2FMGArticle%2FRTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031774334844) Mar 17, 2004 > > WASHINGTON - Capturing or killing al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden would not “change the problem” of international terrorism, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said yesterday. Rumsfeld also raised the possibility that bin Laden was dead. > > “The reality is that bin Laden is spending a great deal of his time - if he is alive today - hiding and running and trying to communicate and trying to survive,” Rumsfeld said in an interview at the Pentagon with WTN radio in Nashville. So when we can’t find the guy and don’t hear from him for a while, he’s “hiding and running and trying to survive” and possibly even dead, and his fate doesn’t really make a difference to the problem of international terrorism? But when we hear from him, all of a sudden he’s terribly dangerous again? Which is it? ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/79 "2004-10-29T23:00:51Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Just heard both Bush’s and Kerry’s responses. I was impressed. Both showed a lot of class and basically said “We’re all Americans, and we all agree that he’s the enemy”. Based on [this article,](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10078-2004Oct29.html) I’d have to agree with you. For those who don’t want to register, Bush’s comments included “Let me make this very clear. Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I’m sure Senator Kerry agrees with this.” John Kerry said, “Democrat, Republican, there’s no such thing. There’s just America and we are all united in hunting down and capturing or killing those who conducted that raid and we always knew that that was Osama bin Laden.” Possibly the only sour note is that Kerry did criticize GWB’s handling of the war on terror. I think he is justified in his criticism, and it would be hypocritical to stop doing that now. In his defense, the article doesn’t make clear if he said those things today before the contents of the tape had been disclosed. I wonder if this tape might have a totally unexpected effect on the country. Reading what the two candidates said, in the context of what is possibly the most bitter, partisan election since the Civil War, perhaps this tape might remind us that we Americans are more united than not. It’s not much, but it has to be beneficial to remember that there is someone out there that we all hate more than that misguided chucklehead of a coworker with his constant shilling for (pick one) Bush/Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/80 "2004-10-29T23:04:58Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Well, CNN is reporting, as I type this, that people prefer Bush to Kerry on the issue of fighting terror 53 to 37. According to you, Bush has a lock on the election!! But that’s just for those voters who have this as their determining factor. You might feel this way but like Kerry’s economic plan better. For single-issue 9/11 voters, they were in Bush’s camp before. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=5)