# ObL Tape: Will it affect the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915 "2004-10-29T20:04:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/81 "2004-10-29T23:06:55Z")
> [@Apos](#): > > As I think I said a while ago about the Madrid bombings, I’m not sure they care which way it influences the elections. They only care about showing off that they can make us jump AND influence elections. It’s basically a way of throwing their weight around and showing the world that they matter more than anything else people might vote on. **Apos** speaks for me. Encouragingly, I’ve mostly heard people talk about how he’s trying to manipulate the election, not how they’re going to change his vote–or not–according to what he says. Al Qaeda is crippled, I think, but still dangerous. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/82 "2004-10-29T23:20:37Z")
I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the notion that this video is a positive for Bush. “Vote for George W. Bush! He’s strong on terrorism! Why, here’s America’s #1 terrorist no-goodnik in a new video, alive and well and free to taunt us from unknown locations! It’s Bush’s leadership that allows Osama to run free! A lesser President would have… well, something… er…” (If I were a religious person, I’d almost be tempted to say this is just the latest smackdown from God on the Bush-Cheney campaign – 380 tons of missing explosives, Rudy Guiliani blaming the troops, the FBI’s renewed probe into Haliburton, and now this… Sounds like divine intervention to me!) ---
**Author:** ![Muad\_Dib](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/35a633/32.png) [@Muad\_Dib](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Muad_Dib)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/83 "2004-10-29T23:34:03Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the notion that this video is a positive for Bush. > > “Vote for George W. Bush! He’s strong on terrorism! Why, here’s America’s #1 terrorist no-goodnik in a new video, alive and well and free to taunt us from unknown locations! It’s Bush’s leadership that allows Osama to run free! A lesser President would have… well, something… er…” > > (If I were a religious person, I’d almost be tempted to say this is just the latest smackdown from God on the Bush-Cheney campaign – 380 tons of missing explosives, Rudy Guiliani blaming the troops, the FBI’s renewed probe into Haliburton, and now this… Sounds like divine intervention to me!) The idea is “Osama is still out there. Kerry is a liberal wimp. We need Bush because he can get Osama.”. ---
**Author:** ![Airblairxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Airblairxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airblairxxx)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/84 "2004-10-29T23:45:30Z")
Full disclosure mode: I’m a Kerry supporter. Now that I think about this some more, I really can’t see how this tape could help GWB all that much. For starters, he mentions the whole My Pet Goat fiasco: > [@](#): > > It never occurred to us that the commander in chief of the American forces (Bush) would leave 50,000 citizens in the two towers to face those horrors alone at a time when they most needed him because he thought listening to a child discussing her goat and its ramming was more important than the planes and their ramming of the skyscrapers. This had given us three times the time needed to carry out the operations, thanks be to God… It’s one thing to hear something like that from Michael Moore. It’s a whole different thing to hear it from the son of a bitch himself. There are voters who are completely certain that only he, and not John Kerry, will keep them safe from Al Qaeda. These voters are already in his camp. Those few undecided voters either don’t think either candidate has a monopoly on ensuring the country’s safety, or don’t consider terrorism their most important issue. I just don’t see how this tape would change their minds. Those who are on my side of the political divide see the tape and wonder, “Why is this mass murderer still breathing free air?” Perhaps someone who will vote for Bush on Tuesday can help me understand how this videotape could help him. Otherwise, I think this tape has surfaced too late to make much of a difference on Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/85 "2004-10-29T23:58:23Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > But that’s just for those voters who have this as their determining factor. You might feel this way but like Kerry’s economic plan better. For single-issue 9/11 voters, they were in Bush’s camp before. But that’s not what you said before-- the frist sentence, that is. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/86 "2004-10-30T00:20:35Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Well, just have him post that in this forum, and we’ll rip it to pieces and explain which logical fallacy he’s using. That’ll show him! LOL! This has been a good discussion. It seems like for people for whom the Iraq War was their top issue, or the so-called War in Terror, this revelation of OBL does nothing to change anyone’s mind. I also somehow doubt it’ll change the minds of the “undecideds,” if any of of them are left. Conclusion: it’s a wash, either way. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/87 "2004-10-30T00:22:34Z")
I’ve been swapping some emails with a pal in DC. I told him it boils down to the public’s reaction. 1. Holy crap! He’s still out there! Bush will save us! 2. Holy crap! He’s still out there! Why hasn’t Bush saved us? And I have no idea which way this will play. But if I were Kerry I’d have every spin-meister I have out there making sure it goes my way. ---
**Author:** ![minty\_green](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f6c823/32.png) [@minty\_green](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minty_green)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/88 "2004-10-30T00:27:17Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Well, CNN is reporting, as I type this, that people prefer Bush to Kerry on the issue of fighting terror 53 to 37. According to you, Bush has a lock on the election!! One wonders how those people define “fighting terror.” One also suspects that for a significant number of people who come down in favor of Bush, “fighting terror” includes the invasion of Iraq, which is, of course, pretty well demonstrably false. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/89 "2004-10-30T00:34:05Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the notion that this video is a positive for Bush. > > “Vote for George W. Bush! He’s strong on terrorism! Why, here’s America’s #1 terrorist no-goodnik in a new video, alive and well and free to taunt us from unknown locations! It’s Bush’s leadership that allows Osama to run free! A lesser President would have… well, something… er…” > > (If I were a religious person, I’d almost be tempted to say this is just the latest smackdown from God on the Bush-Cheney campaign – 380 tons of missing explosives, Rudy Guiliani blaming the troops, the FBI’s renewed probe into Haliburton, and now this… Sounds like divine intervention to me!) I see it this way. This tape is going to influence SOME people. No doubt… Some people are going to say…this makes Bush look weak so a few will go with Kerry. Some will say…that SOB just threatened us again. Go get him George and they’ll vote for GW. Some folks will still have their heads up their ass when they get to the polls and will flip a coin. The two groups that this tape will influence are also gonna be influenced by which candidate spins this thing the best. I think GWB’s camp lies better than Kerry’s does and will take the advantage on how many votes are cast because of this tape. _note- they both are fuc_\*\*g liars IMHO I just think Rove is the better spin man. The 380 tons has already been dismissed. It’s a non-issue anymore. The pentagon has that covered and truth be known, that’s really a tiny tiny drop in an ocean of missing explosives. I know somebody in Iraq that does this. (destroying confiscated/discovered munitions) he says they blow up more than that every week. I’ve seen pictures and he wasn’t bullshitting. Plus, what they’ve found so far won’t even scratch the surface. They’re digging up bunkers all day everyday…tons and tons…thousands of tons I won’t say more but…I just went shit. :smack: If the public really had a clue. ---
**Author:** ![Jojo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ecd19e/32.png) [@Jojo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jojo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/90 "2004-10-30T00:35:23Z")
[Osama said:](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3966817.stm) > [@](#): > > I am amazed at you. Although almost four years have passed since the [11 September] incidents, Bush is still practising distortion and confusion. > > He also continues to conceal from you the real reason [for the 11 September attacks]. Thus, the motives still exist for repeating what happened. > > I will speak to you about the reasons behind these incidents. I will honestly tell you about the minutes in which the decision was made so that you will consider. Oh goody, you’re going to tell us the reasons. Well get on with it coz we have no real idea. > [@](#): > > The events that influenced me directly trace back to 1982 and subsequent events when the United States gave permission to the Israelis to invade Lebanon, with the aid of the sixth US fleet. Huh? Lebanon? Leba-fucking-non? In 1982? That was 22 years ago. You’re saying that sept 11 was in response to Lebanon? You said that the reasons for Sept 11 still exist so what are they? It can’t be Lebanon because that situation does not still exist. What are these “reasons that still exist”? > [@](#): > > Accordingly, he transferred dictatorship and the repression of freedoms to his son by introducing the Patriot Act under the pretext of fighting terrorism. I’m glad that you’re so concerned about American domestic politics and in particular the Patriot Act but can we get back to the reasons for the Sept 11 attack? You still haven’t said what they were and yet you said in your introduction that you wanted to talk about about the reasons. > [@](#): > > Your security does not lie in the hands of Kerry, Bush, or al-Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Each and every state that does not tamper with our security will have automatically assured its own security. Hmm…yes, sorry, still don’t know what you’re talking about. Could you send us another tape please and this time try to be a bit more specific? ---
**Author:** ![Leonard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a6a055/32.png) [@Leonard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leonard)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/91 "2004-10-30T00:38:37Z")
> [@Jojo](#): > > Huh? Lebanon? Leba-fucking-non? In 1982? That was 22 years ago. You’re saying that sept 11 was in response to Lebanon? You said that the reasons for Sept 11 still exist so what are they? > > It can’t be Lebanon because that situation does not still exist. What are these “reasons that still exist”? He probably means our support of Israel. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/92 "2004-10-30T00:39:28Z")
> [@minty green](#): > > One wonders how those people define “fighting terror.” One also suspects that for a significant number of people who come down in favor of Bush, “fighting terror” includes the invasion of Iraq, which is, of course, pretty well demonstrably false. I don’t disagree. I just report the facts, I don’t influence them. 🙂 And, speaking of Iraq, I’m going to go out on limb here and say that ObL is coming out in favor of Bush by not mentioning Iraq specifically in the tape\*. It’s a pretty oblique “endorsement”, but I really think that the more the focus is on Iraq, the better things are for Kerry. The more the focus is on “terror” in a vague, general sense, the better things are for Bush. \*I still haven’t seen the full transcript, but I’m assuming Iraq was not explicitly mentioned because no one is reporting that yet. ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/93 "2004-10-30T00:56:58Z")
I’ve read ObL had “concialiatory” language ! Wierd. His purpose ? To set up the impression among arabs that he warned the US… he gave them a fair chance of changing their meddling ? That is my bet. Naturally neither candidate will stop meddling… and therefore ObL and AQ are responding to aggression and not the other way around. On a “non-political” note… Osama took a swipe at Bush for pet goat… not even terrorists can understand why Bush kept reading kiddie books ! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Rashak\_Mani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ea666f/32.png) [@Rashak\_Mani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rashak_Mani)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/94 "2004-10-30T00:58:56Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > And, speaking of Iraq, I’m going to go out on limb here and say that ObL is coming out in favor of Bush by not mentioning Iraq specifically in the tape\*. It’s a pretty oblique “endorsement”, but I really think that the more the focus is on Iraq, the better things are for Kerry. The more the focus is on “terror” in a vague, general sense, the better things are for Bush. You might have something there John… that would be pretty subtle for a terrorist… but they seem at least seem to plan things. There is a mention to 1000 casualties or something like that… so there is “iraq” even if indirectly. ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/95 "2004-10-30T01:04:16Z")
> [@Muad'Dib](#): > > How many terrorist attacks have there been on American soil since 9/11? None. All have been in Iraq where he told terrorists to “bring it on”. Spell your point out. Are you saying that terrorists take orders from GWB? Or are you implying any sort of a causual relationship at all between the invasion of Iraq and the dearth of terrorist attacks in the US? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/96 "2004-10-30T01:08:12Z")
> [@t-keela](#): > > The 380 tons has already been dismissed. It’s a non-issue anymore. The pentagon has that covered and truth be known, that’s really a tiny tiny drop in an ocean of missing explosives. I know somebody in Iraq that does this. (destroying confiscated/discovered munitions) he says they blow up more than that every week. I’ve seen pictures and he wasn’t bullshitting. Plus, what they’ve found so far won’t even scratch the surface. They’re digging up bunkers all day everyday…tons and tons…thousands of tons I won’t say more but…I just went shit. :smack: > > If the public really had a clue. Well, it’s a non-issue right now, only because this kinda blew it out of the water. I think it could come back, though - and that’s just as true, if not more so (since then the timeline ceases to be an issue) if people realize just how extensive the supply of conventional explosives in Iraq is. It was never a problem for us, before we invaded, that Saddam had conventional weapons, but it sure has been since. And if the supply’s that enormous, it goes without saying that al-Qaeda (now that they’re back in the news) can get a piece of that action. If they could hurt us with 19 men and some box cutters, they can hurt us again with some of this serious bang that’s floating around in the Middle East at what surely have to be bargain-basement prices. I think the bin Laden story does work in the GOP’s favor - not in and of itself, but in terms of the news it replaces. It’s been a rough week for Bush with the Bombgate story, and it looked as if the vote suppression story might finally get some traction over the weekend. But not now. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/97 "2004-10-30T01:17:26Z")
The way it works in Bush’s favor is the voter who thinks “I hate bin Laden. bin Laden is making fun of Bush. How dare he! I like Bush!” I hope that nobody does vote based on what bin Laden says, whether for Bush or Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Zagna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d2c977/32.png) [@El\_Zagna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Zagna)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/98 "2004-10-30T01:21:40Z")
I just read the entire transcript at \*\*Jojo’s \*\* [link](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3966817.stm), and it’s quite apparent to me that ObL was influenced by Michael Moore’s _Fahrenheit 9/11_. There are references to _My Pet Goat_, the Bush - Saud family connection, the Florida election rigging, the use of the Patriot Act to repress freedoms, and the similarities between the Bush administrations and military dictatorships. All very _F9/11_-ish. What I can see happening is that the spinmeisters over in the Bush camp will turn the whole thing into an attack on the traitorous Hollywood establishment, and that goddamn lefty Michael Moore specifically. Suddenly the whole debate will be directed at that frumpy liberal, and Bush will slither away again. ---
**Author:** ![violacrane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/c57346/32.png) [@violacrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/violacrane)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/99 "2004-10-30T01:24:09Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I say that part of not dealing with terrorists should be not airing tapes from him. I’m not suggesting that the state try to control the media, but I hope that various media outlets decide not to give him air time to influence our politics. I think an explanation that it amounts to “dealing with terrorists” would put most Americans on the tv stations’ side. I realise the thread has moved on from this part of the discussion and I’m quoting bup for the succinct expression of this point of view, not to express personal disagreement. I just wanted to remind everyone of the attempts by Thatcher’s government to suppress the views of Gerry Adams by banning his interviews – which led to the absurdity of having his words voiced by an actor… With the mass media of today for certain US outlets to refrain from showing the tapes would only ensure that this information would not be available to some Americans whilst those receiving foreign TV broadcasts, watching BBC channels, or, of course, on the internet would still have them available. “La la la I don’t hear you!” has never worked so badly. ---
**Author:** ![interface2x](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c0e974/32.png) [@interface2x](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/interface2x)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/100 "2004-10-30T01:50:16Z")
I think it’s pretty recent, especially with the closing comment of “I’d also like to give a shout out to the Boston Red Sox who finally dominated after 86 years. Go SOX!” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=6)