# ObL Tape: Will it affect the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915 "2004-10-29T20:04:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/121 "2004-10-30T18:31:07Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > I didn’t realize until this morning that Al-J only released a portion of the tape, saying that the editted out the “propoganda” parts. One wonders… was the rest of tape critical of Arab countries, and therefore considered propaganda? Al-J often publishes stuff critical of Arab gov’ts so I think it’s unlikely thats what was edited. Also note they left in: > [@OBL](#): > > We have not found it difficult to deal with the Bush administration in light of the resemblance it bears to the regimes in our countries, half of which are ruled by the military and the other half of which are ruled by the sons of kings and presidents. > > Our experience with them is lengthy and both types are replete with those who are characterised by pride, arrogance, greed and misappropriation of wealth. The boring (but most likely IMHO) possibility is that they left out the parts that specifically advocated violent acts against the US or other gov’ts. About half the tape is missing though, and it seems wierd that in a tape aimed at the American people he’d spend half the time talking to muslims about what to blow up. The sexy conspiracy theory possibility is that Al-Jazeera is trying to influence the election by only releasing those parts of the tape critical of Bush. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/122 "2004-10-30T18:40:52Z")
> [@Malodorous](#): > > Al-J often publishes stuff critical of Arab gov’ts so I think it’s unlikely thats what was edited. Also note they left in: > > > [@OBL](#): > > > > … ObL posted here? :eek: ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/123 "2004-10-30T20:44:10Z")
> [@cricetus](#): > > Osama Helps Bush. > > Should be a bumper sticker. I wonder if Bush will invite him to his inaugural ball. Probably the State of the Union address instead. Chalabi won’t be on the list next year, and that will free up a seat. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/124 "2004-10-30T20:48:25Z")
According to the polling over at _Fox News_, GeeDubya’s poll numbers went _down_ two points since the tape was released’ [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html) > [@](#): > > With less than a week remaining in the race for the White House, incumbent George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry by 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Saturday. The president’s lead is well within the poll’s margin of error. > > These new poll results show a slight dip in polling conducted Wednesday and Thursday night when Bush topped Kerry by 50 percent to 45 percent… ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/125 "2004-10-30T21:14:17Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > According to the polling over at _Fox News_, GeeDubya’s poll numbers went _down_ two points since the tape was released’ > > [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html) > [@](#): > > Polling was conducted Thursday and Friday evenings, so about half of those interviewed would have had the opportunity to hear reports of a new tape from Usama bin Laden Half had the opportunity to hear it, but who knows how many actually did. I don’t think this is going to show up in any poll except the one on Tuesday. It’s too new a news story, and we all know about the problems with weekend polls, let alone a Halloween weekend poll. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/126 "2004-10-30T21:17:14Z")
Tuesday couldn’t be a more perfect time for Bush’s dip to show up. I don’t see how anyone could argue that this tape is a positive for Bush. All it does is underline his failure to get OBL. ---
**Author:** ![Apos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/838e76/32.png) [@Apos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Apos)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/127 "2004-10-30T21:23:19Z")
The Repbulican eagerness is going to backfire. Osama threatening to make the streets run with blood is a “little gift”? Osama being alive and free after killing thousands is “a good thing for us.” > **[Breaking News, World News, US and Local News - NY Daily News - New York Daily...](https://www.nydailynews.com/)** > > Find breaking US news, local New York news coverage, sports, entertainment news, celebrity gossip, autos, videos and photos at nydailynews.com. Sorry, but I think the interests of America and the interests of the Bush campaign have just diverged a wee bit. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/128 "2004-10-30T21:24:30Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > I don’t see how anyone could argue that this tape is a positive for Bush. All it does is underline his failure to get OBL. Do you understand why Bush polls considerablly better than Kerry when people are asked who would be better at fighting terrorism? They already know, and Kerry keeps reminding us, that ObL is still at large. Frankly, I don’t fully understand that, but I expect it’s because fear makes people less inclined to make a change. With the tape coming out so close to the election, it will have more of an emotional response rather than a reasoned one. As you’ve reminded us before, you are a lot smarter than the average voter. You’re own reaction is not a good gauge. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/129 "2004-10-30T21:46:04Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Do you understand why Bush polls considerablly better than Kerry when people are asked who would be better at fighting terrorism? They already know, and Kerry keeps reminding us, that ObL is still at large. Frankly, I don’t fully understand that, but I expect it’s because fear makes people less inclined to make a change. Well, I think it is more than that…It is the failure to distinguish between fighting a smart war on terrorism and just “being tough” which apparently means going off on tangents and attacking countries that have very little to do with terrorists (especially the ones that actually attacked us). Unfortunately, some people confuse this toughness with effectiveness. [And, they fail to realize what a boon the last 18 months has likely been for Al Qaeda…Honestly, I am not sure that they could have wished for anything more.] ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/130 "2004-10-30T21:47:06Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > As you’ve reminded us before, you are a lot smarter than the average voter. You’re own reaction is not a good gauge. The average voter’s a lot smarter than the average voter. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/131 "2004-10-30T21:53:32Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > Well, I think it is more than that…It is the failure to distinguish between fighting a smart war on terrorism and just “being tough” which apparently means going off on tangents and attacking countries that have very little to do with terrorists (especially the ones that actually attacked us). Unfortunately, some people confuse this toughness with effectiveness. [And, they fail to realize what a boon the last 18 months has likely been for Al Qaeda…Honestly, I am not sure that they could have wished for anything more.] Good point. I don’t completely agree that Iraq is a good example of that, since it cuts both ways for Bush, but I do think people feel that Bush will more likely “do something” than Kerry will, without really thinking thru whether that “something” is the right thing or not. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/132 "2004-10-30T22:01:09Z")
> [@SimonX](#): > > The average voter’s a lot smarter than the average voter. 😕 and apparently smarter than me… whooshed again **Diogenes** whatsup… I’ll tell ya how it’s a boost for Bush. The tape is gonna get some people to get their heads outta their asses and make a decision. Cause believe or not there’s still a lot of folks who don’t know who they’re going to vote for yet. Some will just flip a coin when they get to the booth. But these voters who will actually make up their minds according to this tape are gonna fall into the emotional…Bush is a fighter and Osama just threatened us again. then there’s the more logical…Bush couldn’t catch him so let Kerry try. Out of these two, who is more apt to be influenced by the mere existence of this tape, the logical group or the emotional group? The emotional group is going to outnumber the logical group when it comes to this tape. That’s a plus for Bush. It also excludes any twist that Rove is gonna put on it. ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/133 "2004-10-30T22:01:27Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > According to the polling over at _Fox News_, GeeDubya’s poll numbers went _down_ two points since the tape was released’ > > [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html) I’d be skeptical if that was just a statistical fluctuation…Or attributable to other things like the ongoing missing explosives scandal (and particularly the footage from the Minnesota news crew confirming that some of the IAEA sealed explosives were still at the site on April 18. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/134 "2004-10-30T22:13:24Z")
> [@t-keela](#): > > But these voters who will actually make up their minds according to this tape are gonna fall into the emotional…Bush is a fighter and Osama just threatened us again. > > then there’s the more logical…Bush couldn’t catch him so let Kerry try. > > Out of these two, who is more apt to be influenced by the mere existence of this tape, the logical group or the emotional group? I think it may be catching up with the emotional group that, three years after 9/11, put-up-or-shut-up time has come and gone. We’ll find out on Tuesday. ---
**Author:** ![flex727](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/258eb7/32.png) [@flex727](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flex727)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/135 "2004-10-30T22:14:25Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > And no one here has blamed Rove for it yet!! 🙂 Maybe not here, but Walter Cronkite has! :smack: “[I’m a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing.](http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0410/29/lkl.01.html)” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/136 "2004-10-30T22:15:38Z")
[Wonkette](http://www.wonkette.com/archives/im-osama-bin-laden-and-i-approve-of-this-message-024566.php): > [@](#): > > Ooops: He’s alive. And he’s condemning Bush. Which of course means that he wants Kerry to win. Unless he really wants Bush to win and is just by default endorsing Kerry in order to get people to vote for Bush out of spite. But then again, if we’re smart enough to figure that out, then maybe Osama knows that, too and he really wants Kerry to win, and is endorsing Kerry so that people will at first learn toward voting for Bush but then think that’s what Osama wants. . . So confusing. Clearly, we’ve fallen for one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is: “Never get involved in a land war in Asia”; but only slightly less well known is this: “Do not read about goats when death is on the line.” 😃 ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/137 "2004-10-30T23:33:55Z")
> [@t-keela](#): > > 😕 and apparently smarter than me… whooshed again > **Diogenes** whatsup… > > I’ll tell ya how it’s a boost for Bush. The tape is gonna get some people to get their heads outta their asses and make a decision. Cause believe or not there’s still a lot of folks who don’t know who they’re going to vote for yet. Some will just flip a coin when they get to the booth. > But these voters who will actually make up their minds according to this tape are gonna fall into the emotional…Bush is a fighter and Osama just threatened us again. > > then there’s the more logical…Bush couldn’t catch him so let Kerry try. > > Out of these two, who is more apt to be influenced by the mere existence of this tape, the logical group or the emotional group? > The emotional group is going to outnumber the logical group when it comes to this tape. That’s a plus for Bush. It also excludes any twist that Rove is gonna put on it. Oh well, if we are going for emotional arguments how is this: The same guy that Bush promised to bring “dead or alive” is taunting him for blowing up the Saddams, who had nothing to do with 9/11. And the Bush apologists, many whom were saying recently that getting Osama’s head in a platter was going to seal the election for bush, are now saying that finding Osama alive and tounting the administration… does help the administration get elected. :smack: Sorry, but this rotten spin that the right is trying to put to this tape of Osama adds to the reason why the left is angry with them and Bush, and since Nader is not much a factor now, I see more on the left getting out of their butts and voting for Kerry. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/138 "2004-10-30T23:53:42Z")
Hell, I hope you’re right. Anybody that thinks I’m a Bush fan is way off. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/139 "2004-10-31T00:17:16Z")
I still don’t see how anyone who gives the matter any thought at all can think that this tape is a reason to vote for Bush. Are they thinking that now Buish WILL get OBL? What;s he going to do now that he hasn’t been doing for the last three years and if he has the ability to do something new then why hasn’t he done it already? ---
**Author:** ![PatriotX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c4cdca/32.png) [@PatriotX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatriotX)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/140 "2004-10-31T00:18:35Z")
> [@t-keela](#): > > 😕 and apparently smarter than me… whooshed again Everyone’s normal, but no one’s average. The average person thinks he’s smarter than the average person. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=8)