# ObL Tape: Will it affect the election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915 "2004-10-29T20:04:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/141 "2004-10-31T03:17:23Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > I still don’t see how anyone who gives the matter any thought at all can think that this tape is a reason to vote for Bush. You nailed it right there I think buddy. 😃 That was also kinda my point. If they haven’t thought about it enough already, they aren’t apt to between now and then. They’re waiting for a “sign”. Like I’ve said many times, I hope I’m wrong. > **[News](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/?xml=%2Fnews%2F2004%2F10%2F31%2Fwus31.xml&sSheet=%2Fnews%2F2004%2F10%2F31%2Fixnewstop.html)** > > Latest breaking news, including politics, crime and celebrity. Find stories, updates and expert opinion. > [@](#): > > President Bush has opened a six-point lead over John Kerry in the first opinion poll to include sampling taken after the new Osama bin Laden videotape was broadcast on Friday night. ---
**Author:** ![Jojo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ecd19e/32.png) [@Jojo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jojo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/142 "2004-10-31T03:37:36Z")
> [@](#): > > The average person thinks he’s smarter than the average person. “The biggest argument against democracy is to talk to the average voter for five minutes.” Winston Churchill ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/143 "2004-10-31T03:40:26Z")
[http://www.dailykos.com/](http://www.dailykos.com/) > [@](#): > > The Osama effect > by kos > Sun Oct 31st, 2004 at 03:09:33 GMT > > So, how did Osama’s song and dance play in the tracking polls? > ZOGBY > > Kerry 47 (47) > Bush 46 (47) > > TIPP > > Bush 45 (45) > Kerry 44 (45) > > RASMUSSEN > > Bush 47.9 (48.7) > Kerry 47.1 (46.7) > > WASHINGTON POST > > Bush 49 (50) > Kerry 48 (47) > > One-third of these samples were conducted after the release of the OBL tape. I think, at this late date, that the fiasco of Al-Quaqa is affecting the election more and the Newsweek poll is an “outie”. Taking into account how the polls were worse for Gore in 2000, and he still got the popular vote, I can say that Bush is in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/144 "2004-10-31T03:55:11Z")
I believe the reason that Bush polls so much higher than Kerry on security and terrorism is not because people think Bush is particulary good at it, but because they totally distrust Kerry’s ability to stay the course. That’s certainly the way I feel about it. If the Democrats had nominated someone like Lieberman or Gephardt, Bush wouldn’t have the lead he does in security. But deep down, people think that Kerry may just cut and run when the going gets tough. The Osama effect will show up in the next round of polls, if it exists. The only leading indicator we have so far are the electronic markets, which can respond faster than the polls. [Here’s the IEM Presidential price graph](http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm). It shows a sharp spike upwards for Bush immediately following OBL’s little speech. Over at Tradesports, Bush has gone up 2.5 points since yesterday, and the gap is now 55/45. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/145 "2004-10-31T04:52:24Z")
Perhaps this is too fine a point, **Sam** , but what you got there is people saying how they _anticipate_ Americans will react. Over at the NYT, front page has an article about how most people seem unaffected one way or the other… > **[Voters, Their Minds Made Up, Say bin Laden Changes Nothing (Published 2004)](https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/31/politics/campaign/voters-their-minds-made-up-say-bin-laden-changes-nothing.html)** > > Supporters of Pres Bush and of Sen John Kerry agree that Osama bin Laden's threatening new videotape will not change their vote; many say that issues raised by election are bigger than one man; some people say that in secret cloister of voting booth,... > [@](#): > > …In dozens of interviews on Friday and Saturday in five hotly contested states, such steely sentiments were echoed again and again. Supporters of Mr. Bush said the bin Laden tape had strengthened their resolve to vote Republican by reminding them of the grave threats still faced by the country, while Mr. Kerry’s supporters said the tape was yet another reminder that the Bush administration had failed to catch Mr. bin Laden. Even the undecided said the tape would not influence their decision… I think persons expecting a big reaction to the tape have made a miscalculation. By shifting the emphasis to Saddam, Bush made him Boogieman Numero Uno. Of late, they’ve been hyping this Zarqawi fellow as the Big Enchilada. Remember how much we hated Khomeini? Qaddaffy Duck? Seems we can only handle one villain at a time. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/146 "2004-10-31T05:31:18Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Perhaps this is too fine a point, **Sam** , but what you got there is people saying how they _anticipate_ Americans will react. Over at the NYT, front page has an article about how most people seem unaffected one way or the other… Anecdotes. Certainly no more informative than the on-line betters, and probably less. > [@](#): > > I think persons expecting a big reaction to the tape have made a miscalculation. By shifting the emphasis to Saddam, Bush made him Boogieman Numero Uno. Of late, they’ve been hyping this Zarqawi fellow as the Big Enchilada. It only needs to be a small reaction in one key state, like Ohio, to tilt the election one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/147 "2004-10-31T05:44:23Z")
> [@flex727](#): > > Maybe not here, but Walter Cronkite has! :smack: > “[I’m a little inclined to think that Karl Rove, the political manager at the White House, who is a very clever man, he probably set up bin Laden to this thing.](http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0410/29/lkl.01.html)” Wow!! I have to wonder if that is a transcription error, although it would be one hell of a typo. Strange that King never calls him on it. Wouldn’t any reporter worth his salt ask for a clarification or elaboration? This is just astonishing… ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/148 "2004-10-31T05:45:55Z")
What’s so astonishing about it? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/149 "2004-10-31T05:50:56Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > What’s so astonishing about it? Well, do you think Rove planned the latest ObL tape? Is \*\*Reeder \*\*posing as Walter Cronkite these days? I have to think that the Old Cronk was chuckling as he said it, and that chuckle got lost in the transcription. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/150 "2004-10-31T05:54:54Z")
I think it was be his MO to sit on a video like this for a few months and then leak it just before the elction. He may or may not have faked the video (nothing would surprise me with this White House) but the timing has Rove’s oily thumbprints all over it. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/151 "2004-10-31T06:03:34Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > I think it was be his MO to sit on a video like this for a few months and then leak it just before the elction. He may or may not have faked the video (nothing would surprise me with this White House) but the timing has Rove’s oily thumbprints all over it. I hadn’t realized that Osama was in the habit of sending his tapes to the Whitehouse. Guess you learn something new everyday… ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/152 "2004-10-31T06:05:32Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > I hadn’t realized that Osama was in the habit of sending his tapes to the Whitehouse. Guess you learn something new everyday… Who knows where the White House got it? That’s not the point. The point is that the timing reeks of Rove. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/153 "2004-10-31T06:41:48Z")
Dammit, **Dio** , how many times I gotta tell you? When you fold the tin foil, you _must_ fold it parallel to true magnetic north! Otherwise, the polarity of telepathic rays remains ungobulable! I don’t doubt for a minute the ObL has a motive in his timing. The motive is to attract attention, which attracts recruits. His message isn’t so much “Bush can’t protect you” so much as “nobody can protect you”! If this were a Karl Rove special, no such ambiguity would exist, subtle they ain’t. Such a message would flat out endorse Kerry, something like “Elect Kerry or feel my wrath!” As well, I also suspect this was intended to show that little bitch Al-Zarqawi just who the Big Dog really is. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/154 "2004-10-31T06:50:27Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > Who knows where the White House got it? That’s not the point. The point is that the timing reeks of Rove. YMMV. There’s absolutely no mileage whatsoever in this. If you’re offering this as any type of credible theory, then let’s see your evidence. If you just want to aim more vitriol at Bush, there are any number of Pit threads for that pupose. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/155 "2004-10-31T07:17:39Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > There’s absolutely no mileage whatsoever in this. If you’re offering this as any type of credible theory, then let’s see your evidence. If you just want to aim more vitriol at Bush, there are any number of Pit threads for that pupose. I never asserted it as fact, I just said it wouldn’t surprise me. They _have_ been known to do things like steal elections and lie to start wars, after all. But in retrospect, what **'lucy** says makes sense. ObL is probably just waving his dick at Al-Zarqawi (not to mention Bush). It still wouldn’t surprise me if Karl Rove if had something else up his sleeve for monday, though. He’ll probably plant crack on Kerry’s bus or something. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/156 "2004-10-31T07:22:45Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > … ObL is probably just waving his dick at Al-Zarqawi (not to mention Bush)… Well, thanks a bunch for _that_ mental image! But now that you mention it, are Muslim men circumscribed? Circumspect? Whatever-that-is, you know, ten percent off the top? ---
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/157 "2004-10-31T07:35:20Z")
Yep, and Al Jazeera sat on it for months too. I get so tired of their constant fawning at the feet of the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 7:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/158 "2004-10-31T07:37:03Z")
Muslim males are indeed…um…edited…before puberty. You may find it amusing to know that there is a _Hadith_, supposedly adirect quote from Mohammed himself, which states that Abraham circumcised himself at the age of 80…with a hachet. I guess because God told him to. And this after the Isaac thing. It makes me wonder if Satan wasn’t up there making bets with God about whether Abraham would ever say no to anything. “Watch this, I’ll tell him to cut off part of his own pecker with a hatchet. He’ll do it.” “You’re on. Fifty bucks.” ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/159 "2004-10-31T13:04:59Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > That’s certainly the way I feel about it. If the Democrats had nominated someone like Lieberman or Gephardt, Bush wouldn’t have the lead he does in security. But deep down, people think that Kerry may just cut and run when the going gets tough. Oh yes, if only the Democrats had nominated Gephardt, I am sure the Republican Attack Machine and **Sam Stone** would be singing a very different tune. Right! And, I also believe in the tooth fairy. Admittedly, with a super-hawk like Lieberman, they might have more trouble in painting him the way they want although even then I am dubious about whether it would have stopped them from doing so. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915/160 "2004-10-31T13:14:31Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > It still wouldn’t surprise me if Karl Rove if had something else up his sleeve for monday, though. He’ll probably plant crack on Kerry’s bus or something. Kind of funny how sort of disappointed we all are going to be if the great Karl Rove doesn’t unleash some sort master stroke today or tomorrow. Been predicting and worrying about it so long and all. It’s a little late in the game at this point to release something and have it perculate into the collective consiousness. Hell if he releases something tomorrow, it won’t even be an Oct. suprise. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/obl-tape-will-it-affect-the-election/271915.md?page=9)