# October 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 23, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706 "2020-10-23T18:55:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 4\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706/1 "2020-10-23T18:55:47Z")
This is the 6th and final contest, but don’t worry, you can participate in this one even if you missed the others. Consider the following senate races: Alabama Alaska Arizona (special) Colorado Georgia Georgia (special) Iowa Kansas Kentucky Maine Michigan Montana North Carolina The goal is for each race to assign a value, P(D), between 0 and 1 that represents the probability that a Democrat wins the seat, the value P(R ) = 1 - P(D), that represents that a Republican wins the seat is implied by P(D). Note: there are two senate races in Georgia this year. Be sure to mark which one is the special election. Entries will be submitted by posting in this thread. The most recent post by a user with a timestamp on or before October 31, 11:59:59 PM CDT will be that user’s entry (i.e. you can change your entry until the end of October). After the election results are known, I will compute the [Brier score](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) for each entry. Participants will be ranked by Brier score where lowest is best. Here’s my October prediction (PredictIt derived) which I will likely change (slightly) by the end of the month. | Race | P(D) | | --- | --- | | Alabama | 2.9% | | Alaska | 9.9% | | Arizona (special) | 92.2% | | Colorado | 97.1% | | Georgia | 29.9% | | Georgia (special) | 40.1% | | Iowa | 52.1% | | Kansas | 11.2% | | Kentucky | 0.9% | | Maine | 88.3% | | Michigan | 73.0% | | Montana | 29.2% | | North Carolina | 64.6% | [May thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889) [June thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809) [July thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863) [August thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/918906) [September thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/september-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/921279) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2020, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706/2 "2020-10-23T20:25:37Z")
Here are all entries from previous months. | Name | Lance\_Turbo | septimus | Calavera | Oredigger77 | Hari\_Seldon | Dr.Strangelove | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Hari\_Seldon | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Lance\_Turbo | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Month | May | May | May | May | May | May | June | June | June | July | July | August | August | September | | Alabama | 3.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 2.4% | | Alaska | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0% | 45.0% | 18.4% | 18.0% | 5.0% | 15.4% | 19.0% | 7.5% | 19.0% | 18.2% | | Arizona (special) | 90.4% | 80.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 80% | 100.0% | 93.8% | 91.0% | 95.0% | 92.9% | 92.0% | 92.4% | 94.0% | 92.6% | | Colorado | 96.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 90% | 100.0% | 95.5% | 85.0% | 98.0% | 96.5% | 89.0% | 95.9% | 90.0% | 95.6% | | Georgia | 24.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10% | 60.0% | 34.5% | 43.0% | 25.0% | 32.5% | 42.0% | 18.6% | 51.0% | 21.1% | | Georgia (special) | 30.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50% | 55.0% | 33.2% | 27.0% | 40.0% | 32.5% | 25.0% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 23.9% | | Iowa | 26.6% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30% | 50.0% | 51.2% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 52.4% | 50.0% | 35.4% | 56.0% | 51.5% | | Kansas | 14.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0% | 0.0% | 18.2% | 13.0% | 25.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 5.4% | 18.0% | 16.8% | | Kentucky | 9.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 10% | 35.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 10.0% | 2.1% | | Maine | 71.4% | 57.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 80% | 95.0% | 76.8% | 88.0% | 95.0% | 81.4% | 82.0% | 75.6% | 85.0% | 84.9% | | Michigan | 87.4% | 82.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 99% | 100.0% | 92.7% | 93.0% | 95.0% | 93.2% | 95.0% | 81.7% | 91.0% | 83.8% | | Montana | 46.2% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50% | 85.0% | 60.4% | 59.0% | 80.0% | 63.4% | 56.0% | 27.9% | 66.0% | 35.5% | | North Carolina | 67.2% | 77.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50% | 60.0% | 65.0% | 72.0% | 35.0% | 72.6% | 70.0% | 73.8% | 73.0% | 74.5% | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706/3 "2020-10-28T19:20:35Z")
There’s still time to get those entries in before the **dead** line… Halloween… at midnight. Muhahaha. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706/4 "2020-10-31T16:55:36Z")
~12 hours left to get that entry in. Code up those models. This is no time for cross validation! My final revised entry. | Race | P(D) | | --- | --- | | Alabama | 1.3% | | Alaska | 9.6% | | Arizona (special) | 91.2% | | Colorado | 98.3% | | Georgia | 49.9% | | Georgia (special) | 53.9% | | Iowa | 51.8% | | Kansas | 8.2% | | Kentucky | 0.8% | | Maine | 84.0% | | Michigan | 84.6% | | Montana | 32.2% | | North Carolina | 67.8% |