# October 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 23, 2020, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707 "2020-10-23T18:58:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2020, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/1 "2020-10-23T18:58:32Z")
This is the 6th and final contest, but don’t worry, you can participate in this one even if you missed the others. Consider these 15 swing states/districts: Arizona Florida Georgia Iowa Maine Maine CD-02 Michigan Minnesota Nebraska CD-02 New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Wisconsin For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst. My entry (subject to change, see below) looks like this… | Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 4 | | Florida | R | 3 | | Georgia | R | 5 | | Iowa | R | 7 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 2 | | Michigan | D | 9 | | Minnesota | D | 13 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 11 | | New Hampshire | D | 14 | | North Carolina | D | 1 | | Ohio | R | 10 | | Pennsylvania | D | 6 | | Texas | R | 12 | | Wisconsin | D | 8 | Entries will be accepted until October 31, 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread. Entires can be updated by posting again before the deadline. Most recent pre-deadline post will be the official entry. Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition. [May thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/854693) [June thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/911840) [July thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/915865) [August thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/918907) [September thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/september-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/921278) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2020, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/2 "2020-10-23T19:43:54Z")
Here are all 25 entries from previous months in one place. | Name | Lance\_Turbo | septimus | JKellyMap | BobLibDem | Fretful\_Porpentine | FlikTheBlue | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | TroutMan | BobLibDem | Munch | ShadowFacts | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | Lance\_Turbo | JKellyMap | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | Lance\_Turbo | iiandyiiii | eschrodinger | BobLibDem | JKellyMap | Kolak\_of\_Twilo | Lance\_Turbo | BobLibDem | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Month | May | May | May | May | May | May | June | June | June | June | June | June | June | June | July | July | July | August | August | August | August | August | August | September | September | | Arizona | D 4 | D 2 | R 1 | D 2 | D 2 | D 2 | D 7 | D 2 | D 2 | D 6 | D 9 | R 2 | D 5 | D 2 | D 6 | D 5 | D 5 | D 2 | D 7 | D 2 | D 9 | D 4 | R 2 | D 5 | D 6 | | Florida | R 1 | R 6 | R 3 | D 3 | D 1 | R 10 | D 5 | D 3 | R 1 | D 2 | D 5 | R 4 | R 3 | R 12 | D 7 | D 1 | D 3 | D 1 | D 9 | D 7 | D 7 | R 2 | R 1 | R 3 | D 3 | | Georgia | R 7 | R 8 | R 11 | R 4 | R 11 | R 15 | R 1 | R 13 | R 13 | R 8 | R 2 | R 3 | R 14 | R 13 | R 1 | R 7 | R 10 | R 11 | D 4 | R 12 | R 4 | R 6 | R 10 | R 7 | R 8 | | Iowa | R 11 | R 11 | R 12 | R 8 | R 6 | R 11 | R 3 | R 11 | D 8 | R 12 | R 3 | R 7 | R 8 | R 6 | R 3 | R 10 | R 6 | R 13 | R 2 | R 8 | D 2 | R 13 | R 11 | R 6 | D 2 | | Maine | D 15 | D 15 | D 14 | D 7 | D 13 | D 9 | D 15 | D 15 | D 12 | D 15 | D 8 | D 11 | D 12 | D 11 | D 15 | D 14 | D 11 | D 15 | D 14 | D 15 | D 12 | D 14 | D 14 | D 15 | D 10 | | Maine CD-02 | R 12 | R 13 | R 6 | D 6 | D 3 | R 1 | R 8 | R 5 | D 3 | R 7 | D 7 | D 8 | D 6 | D 7 | R 5 | R 2 | D 7 | R 12 | D 3 | R 6 | D 5 | D 1 | D 13 | R 1 | D 4 | | Michigan | D 8 | D 7 | D 4 | D 12 | D 8 | D 5 | D 12 | D 6 | D 7 | D 9 | D 14 | D 13 | D 7 | D 9 | D 12 | D 6 | D 14 | D 8 | D 15 | D 14 | D 15 | D 10 | D 12 | D 10 | D 15 | | Minnesota | D 14 | D 12 | D 7 | D 15 | D 12 | D 7 | D 14 | D 9 | D 14 | D 11 | D 15 | D 6 | D 13 | D 14 | D 14 | D 12 | D 15 | D 7 | D 12 | D 10 | D 14 | D 5 | D 3 | D 13 | D 14 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D 5 | D 5 | D 5 | R 1 | R 7 | R 13 | D 10 | D 4 | R 4 | R 3 | R 6 | D 1 | R 10 | R 8 | D 11 | D 8 | R 9 | D 4 | D 8 | D 3 | D 3 | D 9 | R 8 | D 11 | D 7 | | New Hampshire | D 10 | D 10 | D 10 | D 10 | D 15 | D 8 | D 13 | D 12 | D 15 | D 10 | D 10 | D 14 | D 1 | D 10 | D 13 | D 13 | D 13 | D 10 | D 13 | D 13 | D 13 | D 12 | D 15 | D 12 | D 11 | | North Carolina | R 2 | R 4 | R 9 | D 5 | R 4 | R 4 | D 4 | R 8 | D 5 | D 1 | D 4 | D 5 | R 9 | D 1 | D 4 | R 3 | D 2 | R 5 | D 6 | R 1 | D 8 | R 7 | R 4 | R 2 | D 5 | | Ohio | R 9 | R 9 | R 8 | R 11 | R 10 | R 12 | R 2 | R 10 | R 6 | R 14 | D 1 | R 10 | R 2 | R 4 | R 2 | R 11 | R 1 | R 9 | D 5 | R 4 | D 1 | R 11 | R 9 | R 4 | R 1 | | Pennsylvania | D 6 | D 3 | D 13 | D 14 | D 9 | D 6 | D 11 | D 7 | D 11 | D 4 | D 12 | D 12 | D 4 | D 5 | D 10 | D 9 | D 12 | D 6 | D 10 | D 11 | D 11 | D 8 | D 5 | D 8 | D 9 | | Texas | R 13 | R 14 | R 15 | R 13 | R 14 | R 14 | R 6 | R 14 | R 10 | R 13 | R 13 | R 9 | R 15 | R 15 | R 8 | R 15 | R 4 | R 14 | R 1 | R 5 | R 6 | R 15 | R 7 | R 14 | R 12 | | Wisconsin | D 3 | R 1 | D 2 | D 9 | R 5 | R 3 | D 9 | D 1 | D 9 | D 5 | D 11 | D 15 | D 6 | D 3 | D 9 | D 4 | D 8 | D 3 | D 11 | D 9 | D 10 | D 3 | D 6 | D 9 | D 13 | ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2020, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/3 "2020-10-23T21:03:36Z")
Wow, I missed all of this. I will make one up for this. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2020, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/4 "2020-10-24T03:34:10Z")
Not sure what happened that caused me to miss the September poll but here are my predictions for October: Arizona: D 4 Florida: R 1 Georgia: R 10 Iowa: R 2 Maine: D 14 Maine CD-02: R 6 Michigan: D 12 Minnesota: D 15 Nebraska CD-02: R 8 New Hampshire: D 13 North Carolina: D 3 Ohio: R 9 Pennsylvania: D 11 Texas: R 5 Wisconsin: D 7 ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2020, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/5 "2020-10-24T03:47:37Z")
Thanks for your participation. Remember, you can update your entry until the end of the month. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2020, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/6 "2020-10-24T11:47:17Z")
Arizona: D 5 Florida: R 4 Georgia: D 3 Iowa: R 7 Maine: D 15 Maine CD-02: R 9 Michigan: D 12 Minnesota: D 13 Nebraska CD-02: D 6 New Hampshire: D 14 North Carolina: R 1 Ohio: D 2 Pennsylvania: D 10 Texas: R 11 Wisconsin: D 8 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2020, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/7 "2020-10-24T11:51:06Z")
Arizona: D 7 Florida: D 5 Georgia: D 3 Iowa: D 2 Maine: D 14 Maine CD-02: D 8 Michigan: D 13 Minnesota: D 15 Nebraska CD-02: D 9 New Hampshire: D 12 North Carolina: D 6 Ohio: D 4 Pennsylvania: D 10 Texas: R 1 Wisconsin: D 11 ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2020, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/8 "2020-10-24T15:04:07Z")
| Arizona | R | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | Florida | R | 2 | | Georgia | R | 4 | | Iowa | D | 3 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 9 | | Michigan | D | 14 | | Minnesota | D | 11 | | Nebraska CD-02 | R | 5 | | New Hampshire | D | 6 | | North Carolina | R | 7 | | Ohio | R | 8 | | Pennsylvania | D | 13 | | Texas | R | 10 | | Wisconsin | D | 12 | ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/9 "2020-10-27T03:51:56Z")
Arizona R6 Florida R12 Georgia R13 Iowa R 10 Maine D11 Maine CD-02 R8 Michigan R5 Minnesota R1 Nebraska CD-02 R4 New Hampshire D7 North Carolina R9 Ohio R14 Pennsylvania D3 Texas R15 Wisconsin R2 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/10 "2020-10-27T11:12:33Z")
Ouch! That’s fine scary stuff. Happy Halloween to you, too! ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2020, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/11 "2020-10-28T19:19:19Z")
The spooooky deadline of midnight on Halloween fast approaches. There’s still plenty of time to get those entries in. Thank to all who have entered so far. We finally have one entry predicting a Trump win. Remember you may update your entries until the deadline. Last thing… don’t forget the slightly more complicated and much less popular [October 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706). ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2020, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/12 "2020-10-29T03:01:09Z")
Arizona: D 8 Florida: D 2 Georgia: R 10 Iowa: R 1 Maine: D 13 Maine CD-02: R 5 Michigan: D 15 Minnesota: D 12 Nebraska CD-02: R 3 New Hampshire: D 14 North Carolina: R 6 Ohio: R 11 Pennsylvania: D 9 Texas: R 4 Wisconsin: D 7 ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2020, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/13 "2020-10-30T00:41:27Z")
Surprised I didn’t see this earlier and also that Nevada isn’t on the list Here are my votes | Arizona | D | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | Florida | D | 3 | | Georgia | R | 1 | | Iowa | R | 5 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 7 | | Michigan | D | 10 | | Minnesota | D | 13 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 8 | | New Hampshire | D | 14 | | North Carolina | D | 6 | | Ohio | R | 4 | | Pennsylvania | D | 9 | | Texas | R | 11 | | Wisconsin | D | 12 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/14 "2020-10-31T16:59:13Z")
12 hours remain to submit or update entry. Here’s my finalized October entry… | Race | Party | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | | Arizona | D | 4 | | Florida | R | 5 | | Georgia | R | 3 | | Iowa | R | 6 | | Maine | D | 15 | | Maine CD-02 | R | 1 | | Michigan | D | 10 | | Minnesota | D | 12 | | Nebraska CD-02 | D | 13 | | New Hampshire | D | 14 | | North Carolina | D | 2 | | Ohio | R | 9 | | Pennsylvania | D | 7 | | Texas | R | 8 | | Wisconsin | D | 11 | ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/15 "2020-10-31T17:58:27Z")
Eight entries so far in October to bring the total for all months to 33. [![Google Photos](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/oE4BzwxYLGRFIF9pLjsSlCY56QUIEKKP_R_qb5nYujrimzDTtuGf6yzU5H2YdvayRrpGhFDmGuQTKd6hDNIJrOm0njnOAmjeIzPL9LziB9NP5023KlgKlksWcascWr9sxkIbdcHkVA=w589-h315-p-k "New item by K S") ](https://photos.app.goo.gl/uT4NeVL697Gd4Rgw6) ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2020, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/16 "2020-10-31T18:08:07Z")
I’m on a tablet so sorry for the formatting (but the truth is that I probably couldn’t do it as well as others in any event). Arizona D8, Florida R1 Georgia D2 Iowa D5 Maine D13 Maine CD-02 D4 Michigan D12 Minnesota D14, Nebraska CD-02 D6 New Hampshire D15 North Carolina D7 Ohio R10 Pennsylvania D9, Texas R3 Wisconsin D11 Biden is going to win the popular vote by 10 million. If Trump wins despite that, I suggest strongly that we revisit how we conduct presidential elections in this country. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/17 "2020-11-01T00:17:13Z")
Hope I’m not too late: Arizona: D 5 Florida: D 9 Georgia: D 10 Iowa: R 11 Maine: D 2 Maine CD-02: D 13 Michigan: D 6 Minnesota: D 1 Nebraska CD-02: D 12 New Hampshire: D 4 North Carolina: D 8 Ohio: R 15 Pennsylvania: D 7 Texas: R 14 Wisconsin: D 3 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2020, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/18 "2020-11-06T12:34:40Z")
Is it time yet to bump this thread? I was right about Florida — NEVER trust that state to do the right thing! — and also North Carolina (close, but a Trump win), and Arizona (close, but a Biden win), and of course Wisconsin and Michigan (though I never expected either to be so close). And Iowa. And, I was right about Georgia! (Assuming Biden wins there. Even if he doesn’t, I was right about a genuine surge there in Biden support, well beyond the national average shift). My one serious error was with Ohio. I thought Biden would squeak by there. Biden is just so Ohio-ish, and he helped save part of their economy (parts for autos) in 2009. But I was wrong. It will be interesting to see why, when we get to analyze the data over coming weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2020, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/19 "2020-11-06T15:07:18Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Is it time yet to bump this thread? See this thread: [Confidence Pool Results Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675) It does indeed look like you are going to take the overall top spot. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2020, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707/20 "2020-11-06T15:56:46Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > It does indeed look like you are going to take the overall top spot. Whoppee!! Thanks. Though I’d rather have an overwhelming Biden win in Ohio and elsewhere… [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-swing-state-confidence-pool/923707.md?page=2)