Re: Middles, the most I’ve ever seen the line move in absolute terms was a couple of years ago on a Sunday Night game, the Jets versus the . . . Falcons or Saints, I forget. Anyway, one team opened as a 2 point favorite, but closed as a 2.5 point underdog. That’s actually not as much of a move as it seems because it didn’t cross any “key numbers.” A move from 2 to 4 would have been half as big in absolute terms, but realistically would’ve represented a larger line movement because the game is so likely to end with exactly a 3 point margin.
Anyway, I only mention it because I got in a bet with the early line and set up the 4.5 point middle for myself. It was a great gambling moment. In the closing seconds the team that opened as two point underdogs was trailing by exactly two and had a FG to take a 1 point lead, which would mean I won both bets if they made it. But they missed, and I only “sided” the game, winning one bet and pushing the other.