# odds and auto accidents **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 29, 2003, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216 "2003-05-29T06:47:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Outrider](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/9d8465/32.png) [@Outrider](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Outrider)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/1 "2003-05-29T06:47:00Z")
does anyone know of any hard statistics regarding the probability of dying in an auto accident vs. dying in an auto accident where speeding is involved? or what the probability of getting a speeding ticket might be? I am googling like mad, but the majority of the info seems to be alcohol/drug related ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/2 "2003-05-29T07:01:30Z")
[Here](http://www.speedimpact.org/risk1.html) are some figures. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/3 "2003-05-29T07:02:56Z")
[NZ figures](http://www.ltsa.govt.nz/research/speed.html) for comparison. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/4 "2003-05-29T07:05:06Z")
[SpeedImpact](http://www.speedimpact.org/) ---
**Author:** ![Outrider](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/9d8465/32.png) [@Outrider](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Outrider)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/5 "2003-05-29T07:35:11Z")
cool, thanks not to hijack my own thread, but I’m seeing a lot of figures like “speeding is a factor in 30 percent of all fatal crashes.” by stating this, they seem to be implying that speeding increases your chances of being in a fatal crash, but isn’t that some kind of logical fallacy? knowing the probability of speeding given a crash tells you nothing about the probability of a crash given speeding, right? ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/6 "2003-05-29T07:57:53Z")
[Here](http://www.1800driving.com/html/speed.html) are more figures about speeding. They quote the 30% figure as well. You are correct of course in that if 30% of accidents involve speeding and 90% of drivers regularly speed then speeding would be a good thing. However having said “Studies in California have found that the rate of speeding violations per mile traveled is at least three times as high for drivers 16-19 years old as it is for drivers age 30 and older” the piece then points out “About 37 percent of all drivers ages 14-19 involved in fatal crashes were in speed-related crashes, but the percentage among drivers 70 and older decreased to 7 percent.” ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/7 "2003-05-29T11:09:34Z")
> [@](#): > > You are correct of course in that if 30% of accidents involve speeding and 90% of drivers regularly speed then speeding would be a good thing. This is a fallacious line of reasoning. It assumes that when speeding, it is a factor in any crash which occurs while speeding, but that isn’t neccessarily true. The more important statistic would be to compare the crash rate per mile driven for those who speed with the crash rate per mile driven for those who don’t speed. ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-and-auto-accidents/178216/8 "2003-05-29T11:56:13Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Outrider \* > \*\*cool, thanks > > not to hijack my own thread, but I’m seeing a lot of figures like “speeding is a factor in 30 percent of all fatal crashes.” > > by stating this, they seem to be implying that speeding increases your chances of being in a fatal crash, but isn’t that some kind of logical fallacy? knowing the probability of speeding given a crash tells you nothing about the probability of a crash given speeding, right? \*\* You are correct. To imply causation by statistics, one must know the frequency in the general population and in the result. Several points: It seems rational to believe how excessive the speed will relate to increasing the risk. Small amounts of speeding in fatal crashs is likely to be underreported. Speed itself is an issue. Speeding 5 miles in a 40 mph zone may be less fatal than driving 69 when the limit is 70.