# Odds of Winning Megamillions Jackpot Compared to Being Killed by an Asteroid **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [December 17, 2013, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528 "2013-12-17T04:23:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/21 "2013-12-17T18:12:57Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Ah yes, the old ‘false equivalency’ lottery claims. :rolleyes: > > There have been zero recorded claims of someone being killed by an asteroid/meteorite in recent history. > > However, there were at least a dozen and probably on the order of 20 winning Megamillions tickets in the last year and well into the triple digits in the lifetime of this lottery. > > This is the typical “name something that has never happened, and claim it is more likely than something that happened to 20 people in the last year” hyperbole (read: BULLSHIT) we hear from people who are mysteriously angry about something they have no legitimate reason to be angry with, other than possibly a deep seated jealousy of the people who DID win combined with the expectation they THEY never will. And yet the asteroid claim is being repeated all across the media right now…and without any questioning of the validity of the assertion at all. It is presented as fact. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/22 "2013-12-17T18:49:24Z")
You were expecting intelligence and fact checking from the media? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/23 "2013-12-17T19:14:12Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Shouldn’t they also take into account the possibility that we may develop the technology to divert a wayward asteroid in the somewhat near future? Yes, good point. Also, we are watching the skies more and more closely; since there are no reports at the moment of killer asteroids headed for earth, one can infer that the odds are lower than if one knew nothing at all about what large asteroids are headed for the Earth. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/24 "2013-12-17T19:28:08Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > You were expecting intelligence and fact checking from the media? :dubious: Nope. There’s a morning deejay out here who keeps insisting that “they” have been screwing around with the odds against winning as the jackpot has been growing, guaranteeing that no one will win it until it hits the magic number of ONE BILLION, some time around Christmas. He also told his partner that the ticket from the last draw, that matched one number plus the Mega number, was worthless (it paid her two bucks). He evidently considers the lottery to be beneath him, and never plays, no matter how big the payout could get. I think I’ll call him tomorrow morning and rub my win in his face. Because I called “dibs,” that’s why I’m “so sure” I’m going to win… ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/25 "2013-12-17T19:42:06Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > And yet the asteroid claim is being repeated all across the media right now…and without any questioning of the validity of the assertion at all. It is presented as fact. And yet if you change the claim to be “injured indirectly by a meteorite”, then the assertion is probably valid, thanks to that bolide that exploded over Russia a year ago. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/26 "2013-12-17T21:14:05Z")
> [@Shakester](#): > > So, while rare, they’re a good deal less impossible than the wowsers would have you believe. The statement I usually hear is that you are more likely to die on the way to buy your ticket than win. Is this true? ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/27 "2013-12-17T21:36:00Z")
How many people died on their way to buy tickets in the last year? If the answer is ‘less than 15-20’, then it isn’t true. ---
**Author:** ![Yllaria](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yllaria/32/3452_2.png) [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/28 "2013-12-17T21:56:22Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > How many people died on their way to buy tickets in the last year? > > If the answer is ‘less than 15-20’, then it isn’t true. How would we ever know? It would be hard to know that they had been on their way to buy tickets after they’re dead. Even if they told someone as they left the house, there’s noone collecting the information. This thread reminds me of an old **Travels With Farley** comic strip. Farley was arguing with (I had to look this up) Bruce the raven about how bad the odds of winning the lottery were. Bruce said that Farley was more likely to be struck by lightning or attacked by a shark than he was to win the lottery. Farley said something about being struck by lightning while being attacked by a shark and Bruce said something like “Yeah, but how many people get that lucky?” [Per google - shark attack between four and twelve million to one. Let’s say eight. Per wiki - lightning strike about 3,000 to one. Both occuring - 24,000,000,000 to one. Nah. That’s already worse odds for both happening to the same person, let alone adjusting for both happening at the same time.] ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/29 "2013-12-17T22:15:38Z")
The real difficulty is in determining the odds of some very unlikely events. The lottery odds are mathematically simple to figure out, but the other events such as asteroids or lottery pre-purchase deaths are much less so. I understand how the asteroid story has news legs, but on the whole it seems meaningless. Indeed I do not see how many of the odds listed in the Tulane report are accurate. ---
**Author:** ![obfusciatrist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/4af34b/32.png) [@obfusciatrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/obfusciatrist)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2013, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/30 "2013-12-17T23:39:43Z")
Ok so it seems to me the most likely way to die while on the way to buy a lottery ticket is automobile fatality. Per statistics on Wikipedia in 2012 there were 1.14 fatalities per 100 million miles traveled. So to get to 15 fatalities would suggest ~1.3 billion miles traveled. Six relatively small population states don’t participate in MegaMillions so lets round down to 300 million total people in areas that can buy a MegaMillions lottery ticket. Let’s say that a quarter of the population is too young to play the lottery. So 225 million people. According to some articles I just found about 50% of adults play the lottery in a given year. So 112,500,000. Which means, for lottery deaths (due to automobile accident) to match lottery winners, the average lottery player would have drive 11.5 miles per year solely for the purpose of buying lottery tickets. Completely useless math since in the real world there are too many confounding factors (how do you count someone who buys gas and a ticket in the same stop). ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/31 "2013-12-18T06:42:33Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > There’s the old saying about statistics, that numbers can be tortured to tell you exactly what you want to hear. > > The “average person” has one breast and one testicle. And, if you’re frozen in a block of ice from the waist down, but doused with gasoline and torched from the waist up, then on the average, you’re very comfortable. ---
**Author:** ![LawMonkey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d6d6ee/32.png) [@LawMonkey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LawMonkey)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/32 "2013-12-18T16:53:10Z")
It appears that someone was killed by an asteroid yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/33 "2013-12-18T17:36:24Z")
> [@LawMonkey](#): > > It appears that someone was killed by an asteroid yesterday. Lucky bastard. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/34 "2013-12-18T17:39:19Z")
> [@](#): > > It appears that someone was killed by an asteroid yesterday. Link? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/35 "2013-12-18T17:46:54Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Link? [Two winners-one East, one West.](http://news.msn.com/us/2-winners-in-dollar636m-mega-millions-drawing?ocid=ansnews11) ---
**Author:** ![Randy\_Seltzer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ee7513/32.png) [@Randy\_Seltzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Randy_Seltzer)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/36 "2013-12-18T17:55:52Z")
I can’t believe that nobody has mentioned the [Hodges meteorite](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hodges_Meteorite), the only carefully documented instance in human history of someone actually being hit by a meteorite. So if the claim is that you are more likely to be hit by a falling heavenly body than to win the MegaMillions jackpot, then you have to contend with the fact that only one person has ever actually been hit. If the claim is being hit and killed, then that number drops to zero. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2013, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528/37 "2013-12-18T19:04:00Z")
I have a zero probability of being the person hit by the Hodges meteorite. But I have a nonzero chance of being killed by some other meteor that hasn’t hit yet. Past performance is not a proof of future results. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/odds-of-winning-megamillions-jackpot-compared-to-being-killed-by-an-asteroid/676528.md?page=1)