I’d argue that the reduction percentage matters more in detecting a trend. That said, I’d need more than one such number, to see if the reduction is holding steady, decreasing, or increasing.
Also, are there any standards for what is a vast majority and what is a strong majority? I would have called 67% a strong majority, and 57% a simple majority.
Agreed. If those numbers reflected a single, non-repeating step-change, then I wouldn’t think too much about it. But as a trend, it’s very significant. As you note, it’s not necessarily enough data to indicate the trend will continue. But all the other societal factors that might play a part continue to move in the same direction. So I think it’s very likely that this trend will continue as well.
A majority is 50%+1. You can characterize things above that with whatever intensifier you like. When you get into 2/3rds territory that seems pretty “vast” to me, and above that terms like “most” start to seem appropriate.
Given that, it’s not wrong to say “the majority of teenagers have sex, which was true 18 years ago and is still true.” Projecting a trend to infinity is silly, and even if the downward trend continues as-is, it means that nearly a majority of teens will still be having sex 20 years from now.
That “friend group” means every single kid doesn’t need a separate car/truck. I spent most of high school being wild with a group of eight to ten friends. I can’t remember a single night when more than two kids were able to borrow their folks’ car.
But we had a blast: four or five kids to a car, throwing MacDonald’s Apple Pies from car to car on the highway… gooood times.
Oh, yeah, each family only had one car or truck. Kids had to plead to take it out at night or on weekends (and promise to fill it up if they bombed around til it was less than a quarter tank).
I tagged 0% - and qualify it the same.
Currently in Japan there are a few people who are apparently doing the hermit thing, and never going out.
I forsee bicycles until of motorized vehicle age. The interim vehicle before full on car or motorcycle may be scooter [they have some killer scooters that can do highway speeds, but I am talking about the ones that top out around 30 MPH] Humans pretty much crave personal interaction, even if it is only an occasional day out to lunch or shopping or to a bar or pickup game of frisby. There will as said above by someone they will want to get laid, videochat sex can only go so far, at some point you want more than your own hand.
My son turns 17 in three weeks. He has ZERO interest in getting his license.
My oldest daughter is 23; no driver’s license. Her friends also don’t have licenses.
Middle daughter will be 18 in a couple of weeks, and she got her license as soon as she was able.
My boss’s kid (18) had zero interest in getting his license. My daughter’s boyfriend (18) has a license, but zero interest in driving.
And this is Gillette, smaller than Casper.
ETA: And I got my license early on (14, South Dakota), and paid $100 for my first vehicle (1976 Chevy Luv).
Interesting. So how do they get around? Is it all public transit, Uber/taxi services, having their friends driving them around, or are you still their chauffeur? I’m assuming your oldest has a job or goes to college how does the lack of a vehicle impact her?
Another few anecdotes about young people not being interested in getting driver’s licenses right away:
Where are these located? I’m well aware that 75% of people in New York City don’t have a driver’s license. As we see more people move to large cities it makes sense for that trend to expand. I’m less certain it makes sense in rural areas which is why Gillette makes me curious. I’ve spent a lot of time there and while it’s a city its still very rural.
My niece grew up in Green Bay, which has about 100K residents. It has a bus system, which isn’t very extensive, and a small cab company. When she got married, she moved with her husband to Las Vegas, and she was living there when she first got her license.
My friend (and her daughter) live in Naperville, a far western suburb of Chicago. It isn’t only a bedroom community (i.e., it has a lot of restaurants and stores), but it’s pretty spread out.
ETA: neither Green Bay nor Naperville is particularly “urban,” and in both areas, I’d bet that 95+% of adults have driver’s licenses.
Thanks. That’s interesting that the busses in Green Bay were good enough but Vegas’ transportation network pushed her to get her license. I know off the strip Vegas is very different from my friends who’s lived there but I’m surprised its worse than waiting for a bus in the Green Bay winter.
She rarely took the bus in GB; she was bumming rides from her mom or grandparents, or friends.
I’m not sure of everything that went into her finally deciding to get her license, but her husband (they have since divorced) was highly controlling, and I think it may have been her trying to reduce some of his control over her.
The loss of that kind of social network could have played a roll as well. When you can spread around the request for help an single person won’t get too annoyed or you feel too dependant.
Walk, rides from friends, or rides from me if I am not busy (something very rare these days). Oldest does not work, but that is a tale for another time.