# Official 2011 NFL Football Thread - Preseason Edition **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [July 21, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920 "2011-07-21T23:58:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/it_s_not_rocket_surgery/32/312_2.png) [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2011, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/642 "2011-09-08T20:52:02Z")
The NY Giants have had a brutal offseason and preseason, losing enough talent to free agency and injury to field a competitive NFC West team. They also did little to replace/replenish most of the affected positions (seriously, they are starting Jake Ballard at TE? WTF?). Add to this that each of their division rivals should improve from last year, and it’s looking like a 7-9, maybe 8-8, sort of year for the G-men. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2011, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/643 "2011-09-08T22:16:14Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > It’s just that the NFC is more pass heavy, which works into the Eagles’ strengths and the AFC is more run heavy, which works into the Eagles’ weaknesses. They aren’t invincible and I never implied as much. They should be a really good team though. So I’ll say they take that extra game and go 12-4. The best rushing teams are mostly in the AFC, but the only AFC teams that finished in the top 10 rushing last year who might make the Super Bowl are the Pats and Jets. ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2011, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/644 "2011-09-08T22:51:09Z")
The real question is where do the Colts fall if Manning misses the whole season? There is no doubt in my mind that he is the single most important player to his team in the league And the Colts failure to get a real back up is gonna hurt hard. I say 5-6 wins effect, with healthy Manning 11 or twelve, with Collins 5 or 6. Its gonna open up opportunities in the AFC for someone, but who? [sub] certainly not the guy who took Manning 11th pick in my fantasy league. :)[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/645 "2011-09-09T02:25:55Z")
We all said that about Brady, too, remember. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/646 "2011-09-09T03:20:43Z")
Kerry Collins was really good (statistically) over the last half dozen or so games last season with much worse offensive weaponry. I think he’ll be fine. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/647 "2011-09-09T04:21:46Z")
Yeah, but the Titans at least had a middle-of-the-pack run defense. The Colts are designed to defend the pass at the expense of the run, on the assumption that they’ll score a shitload of points and their opponents will be playing from behind. I won’t be too surprised if Collins puts up 20+ points a game, but I’ll be shocked if that’s enough. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/648 "2011-09-09T05:10:41Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > The rest of the division includes the Giants (hurting and a team the Eagles have beaten 6 straight times) Seven, though to be fair the Eagles needed a miracle to get the last one. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/649 "2011-09-09T07:24:15Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > I’m not mocking you, or your prediction, which may well be right (Vick is 2-3 in the playoffs, just sayin’), just the blind optimism that comes in the preseason. Okay, admit it, there was a _little_ mockery in your initial response. It’s okay. I just don’t think my optimism is blind. I’m not predicting a championship or an undefeated season, but I have an awful lot of reasons to be excited. Every Philly fan does. The Eagles won 10 games last season, won their division, added several former Pro Bowlers, are still among the youngest teams in the league, and are 8 million under the cap. That’s pretty damn exciting. I just can’t see how a healthy Eagles team gets fewer than 11 wins. Their pythagorean projection is 11.7 by the way. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/650 "2011-09-09T12:45:29Z")
The Bengals are not as bad as the media is telling you they are. 7-9 in a growing year for the rookies, with tangible progress throughout the season. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/651 "2011-09-09T14:30:51Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > Its gonna open up opportunities in the AFC for someone, but who? AFC South, mostly. With game 1 against the Texans and with Manning, at best, still recovering by the December re-match, Houston should win the division. A simple regression to the mean on defense and just maintaining (or even slight regression) on offense should ensure the division if Manning is gone. Tennessee has a new head coach without even coordinating experience and a temporary QB taking snaps until the rookie QB is ready. Jacksonville has a bona fide QB problem and still has a suspect secondary. Other than that, the major powers in the AFC don’t seem to have changed. Moeaki is out in Kansas City, and while the Chiefs are improved, they had an easy schedule last year. Meanwhile, the Chargers special teams can’t be atrocious for a 2nd year. So, probably Chargers again. In the AFC North? Ravens/Steelers both in the playoffs. Short of the Rapture, any real doubts about that? In the AFC East? Pats/Jets both in the playoffs. Maybe Chad Henne stands at the crossroads at midnight, strikes his deal with the Devil, and turns into an NFL MVP, backdooring the Dolphins into a wild card spot. If the Colts are somehow still in the picture without Manning, they’re fighting an uphill battle for just a wild card. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/652 "2011-09-09T14:35:07Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > The Eagles won 10 games last season, won their division, added several former Pro Bowlers, are still among the youngest teams in the league, and are 8 million under the cap. That’s pretty damn exciting. I kind of scoffed a bit when you said they are among the youngest teams, but it turns out [you’re right](http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/44505/2011-nfl-team-age-ranks-at-53-man-cuts). Weirdly, the Buccaneers are _even younger_ than last year, and not just that: they have the youngest offense AND the youngest defense. Even more interesting is the fact that the supposedly young-and-on-the-come Lions and Falcons are among the league’s oldest teams (and the Lions sport the league’s oldest offense). > [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > The Bengals are not as bad as the media is telling you they are. 7-9 in a growing year for the rookies, with tangible progress throughout the season. Yes, they are. You can suck everywhere if you have a solid quarterback and still end up 7-9. You can’t suck at quarterback and end up 7-9 unless you’re good elsewhere, and the Bengals aren’t. Don’t get me wrong; I think Andy Dalton will be a solid NFL quarterback (and if he wasn’t on the Bengals I’d expect him to become the best quarterback in his draft class). I think Jordan Shipley would already have made a Pro Bowl if he played for the Colts, Patriots or Chargers. However, the team was mediocre (#15) on defense last year, and lost Jonathan Joseph, one of the league’s best corners. He’s been replaced by… Nate Clements, who is solid but not in the same class at his age. Reggie Nelson is such a liability in coverage the _Jaguars_ let him go and started a street free agent in his place. Atwan Odom is gone. Carlos Dunlap is gone. The team was below average on offense last year (#20) and that was with Carson Palmer, T.O. and Ocho. Every offensive skill player is a first-time starter except Jermaine Gresham and Ced Ben, and Gresham has only started 10 games. The entire right-center of the offensive line are basically first time starters; the line as a whole has combined for 107 starts, and 102 of those are Nate Livings and Andrew Whitworth. AJ Green might be a star one day but hasn’t had the benefit of a normal offseason. Just look at the starters. Can you honestly tell me _any_ of these guys are top 25 players at their positions? Maybe Peko, Malaluaga and Hall. Face it: your team will suck this year. QB Andy Dalton RB Cedric Benson FB Chris Pressley WR Jerome Simpson WR A.J. Green RT Andre Smith RG Clint Boling C Kyle Cook LG Nate Livings LT Andrew Whitworth TE Jermaine Gresham SS Chris Crocker FS Reggie Nelson LDE Robert Geathers NT Domata Peko DT Geno Atkins RDE Michael Johnson SLB Manny Lawson WLB Thomas Howard MLB Rey Maualuga RCB Leon Hall LCB Nate Clements ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/653 "2011-09-09T14:41:08Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Yes, they are. You can suck everywhere if you have a solid quarterback and still end up 7-9. You can’t suck at quarterback and end up 7-9 unless you’re good elsewhere, and the Bengals aren’t. > > Don’t get me wrong; I think Andy Dalton will be a solid NFL quarterback (and if he wasn’t on the Bengals I’d expect him to become the best quarterback in his draft class). I think Jordan Shipley would already have made a Pro Bowl if he played for the Colts, Patriots or Chargers. > > However, the team was mediocre (#15) on defense last year, and lost Jonathan Joseph, one of the league’s best corners. He’s been replaced by… Nate Clements, who is solid but not in the same class at his age. Reggie Nelson is such a liability in coverage the _Jaguars_ let him go and started a street free agent in his place. Atwan Odom is gone. Carlos Dunlap is gone. > > The team was below average on offense last year (#20) and that was with Carson Palmer, T.O. and Ocho. Every offensive skill player is a first-time starter except Jermaine Gresham and Ced Ben, and Gresham has only started 10 games. The entire right-center of the offensive line are basically first time starters; the line as a whole has combined for 107 starts, and 102 of those are Nate Livings and Andrew Whitworth. AJ Green might be a star one day but hasn’t had the benefit of a normal offseason. > > Just look at the starters. Can you honestly tell me _any_ of these guys are top 25 players at their positions? Maybe Peko, Malaluaga and Hall. Face it: your team will suck this year. > > QB Andy Dalton > RB Cedric Benson > FB Chris Pressley > WR Jerome Simpson > WR A.J. Green > RT Andre Smith > RG Clint Boling > C Kyle Cook > LG Nate Livings > LT Andrew Whitworth > TE Jermaine Gresham > > SS Chris Crocker > FS Reggie Nelson > LDE Robert Geathers > NT Domata Peko > DT Geno Atkins > RDE Michael Johnson > SLB Manny Lawson > WLB Thomas Howard > MLB Rey Maualuga > RCB Leon Hall > LCB Nate Clements I am telling you, they are going to be much better than people think. I am not being a homer. I watch and scrutinize this team. Carlos Dunlap is not gone. Geno Atkins is a stud. Michael Johnson is a stud. Reggie Nelson has played very well in preseason. Andre Smith has been tremendous. Whitworth is one of the best LT’s in the league (look it up, I am not making this up). Boling is a really good rookie guard. Benson has been running like a man possessed. Bernard Scott is going to get a alot more looks. AJ Green is insanely talented. So is Jerome Simpson. Some of these guys just haven’t had the chance to prove themselves. Now they will. And even if they end up with a poor record, as long as they are making progress and playing hard, that’s all that matters to me for this year. I’m not going to deny that they aren’t in rebuilding/restructuring mode, because they are. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/654 "2011-09-09T14:44:42Z")
Reggie Nelson always looks good in preseason. His problem isn’t that he doesn’t make plays; it’s that he stops doing whatever he’s supposed to be doing to make them. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/655 "2011-09-09T15:01:15Z")
I suspect the Patriots do a little worse than expected this year, finishing 11-5, despite a schedule that is not super difficult. They’ll make the playoffs but fall short of the Super Bowl. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/656 "2011-09-09T16:10:39Z")
Seeing how things are shaking out, I’ll move the Indy game into the winnable column for Carolina. I think Collins will manage the offense competently and it goes without saying he’ll have a lot of weapons, but the offense is built to be run by Peyton Manning, and the Colts are now one hit to an old QB away from having to turn to Curtis Painter or whoever they pick up off the free agent scrap heap. For now, they’re saying they don’t intend to kick the tires on Garrard. It’s a sucky situation all around since I happen to like Manning and the Colts. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/657 "2011-09-09T16:15:54Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Reggie Nelson always looks good in preseason. His problem isn’t that he doesn’t make plays; it’s that he stops doing whatever he’s supposed to be doing to make them. He played pretty well in the few regular season games he was in at the end of last year too (he was hurt and I believe we didn’t even sign him until later in the year). ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/658 "2011-09-09T18:03:34Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > For now, they’re saying they don’t intend to kick the tires on Garrard. It’s a sucky situation all around since I happen to like Manning and the Colts. I believe them on Garrard. He’s not much of a QB and is, at best, about as good as Collins. My only personal worry about Collins was his ability to make it through a whole season. In either case, Manning comes back late in the season or he’s out for the entire season, it’s kind of a moot point. The Colts have long had a suspect run defense. They relied on getting ahead early and applying pass pressure when teams were forced to play catchup. With Cam Newton’s ability to run paired with the talent in Carolina (no, seriously), it’s definitely a winnable game. Even in the best case for Indy, Manning will only just be getting back on the field and won’t be at 100%. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2011, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/659 "2011-09-09T18:21:03Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > Okay, admit it, there was a _little_ mockery in your initial response. It’s okay. OK, I admit it. A little mockery. But just a touch. > [@Jules Andre](#): > > I just don’t think my optimism is blind. I’m not predicting a championship or an undefeated season, but I have an awful lot of reasons to be excited. Every Philly fan does. The Eagles won 10 games last season, won their division, added several former Pro Bowlers, are still among the youngest teams in the league, and are 8 million under the cap. That’s pretty damn exciting. > > I just can’t see how a healthy Eagles team gets fewer than 11 wins. Their pythagorean projection is 11.7 by the way. Again, your prediction may be spot on. But I think you should be waiting until games are actually played and how all the pieces that look good on paper fit together on the football field. Saying things like “The only way to beat the Eagles, in a theorycrafting way, is to pound the ball on inside runs (Philly will be bottom 5 YpC against the run this year, I’m sure) and control the clock enough to keep the offense off the field” ignores the reality of the modern NFL, where teams find ways to beat other teams. Turnovers, injuries, sticking around long enough for late game heroics, or just physically beating the crap out of you, there are dozens of ways for a team to beat another team, and, by and large, some of them happen. No worries, I was mocking (just a little), but it’s not a huge deal. I hope I haven’t pissed you off too much. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2011, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/660 "2011-09-10T01:40:02Z")
So FoieGras, with the title bet, are we good with “posting from the AFCN basement” until our team wins a game after that? I know you want to go the whole season but I’d feel bad punishing your silly optimism to such a degree. It’ll be about a month before the Bengals win something, so I feel that’s good enough. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2011, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920/661 "2011-09-10T07:47:48Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > But I think you should be waiting until games are actually played and how all the pieces that look good on paper fit together on the football field. Just so I have this right, I should wait to make my preseason wins/losses prediction until after the games have been played? What’s the point of making any predictions ever? I can’t extrapolate how I think things will go down based off of what I’ve seen and what I think will happen? When you combine the second best corner in the entire NFL over the last few years (Nnamdi) with Asante Samuel (far and away the best corner in the NFL in 2010) that’s going to make it hard to pass just by itself. Couple that with a pass rush built upon several Pro Bowlers in their primes and that’s a big problem for other teams. Now when I theorize the only way to beat the Eagles etc., I obviously don’t mean the **only** possible way as in Kryptonite to Superman, I mean the only way that’s reliable. And I stand by that. You can’t reliably beat this Eagles team, as constructed on paper, by throwing at them. The Eagles are built to stop the pass at the expense of the run. Everything else you said is irrelevant. Nobody makes a prediction trying to control for every possible variable, because that’s **im** possible. Saying I should wait to make a prediction “after games have been played” and then after accounting for injuries (wtf?!) and adjustments and whatever else is just lunacy. It’s complete insanity to even suggest something like that. Who tries to account for injuries in a prediction? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2011-nfl-football-thread-preseason-edition/589920.md?page=34)