# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2018, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/221 "2018-09-04T21:39:11Z")
Nice article by Nate Silver published this afternoon. [Election Update: Democrats Are In Their Best Position Yet To Retake The House](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-are-in-their-best-position-yet-to-retake-the-house/). My summary: for the Democrats, things are looking very good, but there are still significant risks. They really need to be motivating their voters. For Republicans, it’s rather dismal. The best they can really hope for is to turn the upcoming Blue tsunami into a only a ripple. Republicans really have to hope there is a systemic error in the polling. I love the table with “Projected Seat Gain” vs “Popular Vote Margin”. ---
**Author:** ![Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a87d85/32.png) [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tired_and_Cranky)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/222 "2018-09-13T15:17:22Z")
I didn’t see this poll when it was fresh but here are my bets. House = **228 D** vs **207 R** Senate = **51 D** vs **49 R** This is the misguided optimism that made me buy two bottles of champagne on election day in 2016. Popular Vote = **54% D** vs **46% R** Assuming we are disregarding third-party votes. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/223 "2018-09-13T18:15:29Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I’m afraid it will shatter the prevailing optimism but here are 20 of the closest House races _which the Democrats must win_. (Sorry for the inevitable error(s) in this list.) > Key: Name of D challenger where known, State-District Incumbent (R/D) % last received by R, status of incumbent if not running (R challenger in parens when different from incumbent) \*-Conor Lamb is incumbent in another district. > > ?? **Arizona-2** Martha McSally R, running for Senate (??)94% > Josh Harder **California-10** Jeff Denham R 73% > Katie Hill **California-25** Steve Knight R 78% > Gil Cisneros **California-39** Ed Royce R, retiring (Young Kim) 55% > Harley Rouda **California-48** Dana Rohrabacher R, 58.3% 67% > Mike Levin **California-49** Darrell Issa R, retiring (Diane Harkey) 85% > Jason Crow **Colorado-6** Mike Coffman R 83% > ?? **Florida-26** Carlos Curbelo R 44% > Abby Finkenauer **Iowa-1** Rod Blum R, 53.7% 83% > ?? **Michigan-11** Dave Trott R, 52.9% 73% > ?? **Minnesota-1** Tim Walz D, running for Gov (??) 38% > Angie Craig **Minnesota-2** Jason Lewis R 83% > ?? **Minnesota-8** Rick Nolan D, running for Lt.-Gov. (??) 50% > Tom Malinowski **New Jersey-7** Leonard Lance R, 54.1% 67% > Antonio Delgado **New York-19** John Faso R, 54.0% 54% > Anthony Brindisi **New York-22** Claudia Tenney R 70% > Susan Wild **Pennsylvania-7** Charlie Dent R, resigned (Marty Nothstein) 93% > Conor Lamb\* **Pennsylvania-17** Keith Rothfus R 98% > > The D’s need not win all 20 of these seats to win the House, but they must win an overwhelming majority of them — 15 out of 20 will certainly NOT be enough. > As shown, 18 of these 20 seats are presently held by an R. > > I hope those in the know will keep us informed of D chances in these key elections. Well, first of all, I am 100% confident that the Democrats will not win more than 18 of those 18 seats. 😛 I edited the above to add 538’s current estimated chance of a Democratic win. Looks pretty good; just a decent night for the Dems should get 15 or 16 seats, and 18 certainly isn’t outside the realm of possibility. But I’m not sure where you got that particular list; it includes several districts that the Dems are almost guaranteed to pick up, and there are lots of swingy districts that aren’t on the list; just grabbing a few at random, WA-8, TX-23, TX-7, MI-8, MI-7, NC-13 and IL-12 are all districts that are approximately tossups right now. 538’s model shows 49 districts in which both parties have at least a 25% chance of winning, against 216 safe Dem seats and only 180 safe Rep seats. So that sounds great; we only have to win 7 out of 49 tough races. However, 20 of those are rated as having a 60-75% chance of a Rep win, while “only” 10 have a comparable chance of a Dem win, and 19 are true tossups. Bottom line: Dems are a 5-1 favorite to take the House. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/224 "2018-09-13T18:20:02Z")
I will slightly revise my predictions downward: House 241 D 194 R Senate 51 D 49 R (really a bit of a stretch; if there was a gun to my head I’d probably have to go with 50-50, but ya gotta believe) Popular vote 55% D 45% R ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/225 "2018-09-13T18:31:36Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Well, I’ll kick it off: > House: Dems 230-205 > Senate: Dems 51-49 > Vote: Dems 53-47 Even after being the first official predictor way back in January, I’m still pretty comfortable with my picks. _fingerscrossed_ ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2018, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/226 "2018-09-13T19:12:18Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Nice article by Nate Silver published this afternoon. [Election Update: Democrats Are In Their Best Position Yet To Retake The House](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-are-in-their-best-position-yet-to-retake-the-house/). My summary: for the Democrats, things are looking very good, but there are still significant risks. They really need to be motivating their voters. For Republicans, it’s rather dismal. The best they can really hope for is to turn the upcoming Blue tsunami into a only a ripple. Republicans really have to hope there is a systemic error in the polling. > > I love the table with “Projected Seat Gain” vs “Popular Vote Margin”. It’s good that he reminds us “1 in 5 chances still happen 1 in 5 times, which is kind of a lot.” ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2018, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/227 "2018-09-16T12:09:48Z")
Yeah, I had a spat with a guy in my resist group who stated ‘What do polls know? That Nate Silver guy was off in 2016.’ This guy is an engineer and he can’t understand basic probability. It goes both ways, though. A 1/3 (32.4%) chance of the democrats taking the Senate isn’t half bad. Imagine each time you’ve ever rolled a die. Each time it’s come up 1 or 2? That’s a Senate for you. It’s not the safe bet, but it’s not a terrible one. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2018, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/228 "2018-09-16T12:13:33Z")
Check my work, people. This needs to be crowd sourced. USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53 Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51 Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55 Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56 Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53 Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57 adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53 BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56 Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55 Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56 Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52 DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52 UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50 D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51 septimus 01/28/18 223 50 53 Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54 Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52 Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49 wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52 pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48 Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53 iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55 JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54 kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100 Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49 Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51 Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55 I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52 Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54 Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54 Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55 ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2018, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/229 "2018-09-16T13:19:51Z")
> [@Tired\_and\_Cranky](#): > > … Popular Vote = **54% D** vs **46% R** Assuming we are disregarding third-party votes. D % = D votes divided\_by (D votes + R votes). This is being discussed in another current thread. 🙂 > [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Well, first of all, I am 100% confident that the Democrats will not win more than 18 of those 18 seats. 😛 I used to be able to count up to 20 and even higher; honest! Is there an on-line test for senile dementia? Or should I try to blame Windows? Two of the other swing races you mentioned were on my clipboard, but Windows burped and dropped them off? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2018, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/230 "2018-09-16T14:31:10Z")
Siri says its Obama’s fault, but Cortana blames the Jews. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/231 "2018-09-16T16:08:00Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Siri says its Obama’s fault, but Cortana blames the Jews. This sounds like the title of a new David Allan Coe song. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/232 "2018-09-19T16:43:19Z")
I was thinking of revising my guess, but decided not to. This morning’s Votemaster has a Quinnipiac pole showing Cruz up by 9 points. They are not a Republican organization and are generally respected. For the house, I think it may be a couple more than 220, but not worth revising for that. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/233 "2018-09-19T17:58:14Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > I was thinking of revising my guess, but decided not to. This morning’s Votemaster has a Quinnipiac pole showing Cruz up by 9 points. They are not a Republican organization and are generally respected. For the house, I think it may be a couple more than 220, but not worth revising for that. I don’t see why one poll that shows Cruz up by 9 would make you change your mind about anything. +9 is still worse than he should be doing and I can’t imagine you assumed a Cruz loss in your original guess. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2018, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/234 "2018-09-19T18:54:04Z")
That Quinnipiac isn’t even the most recent poll of that race. [Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepolls/tightening-texas-race-boosts-democrats-hopes-of-taking-senate-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1LZ18B) released senate (and governor) polls of several states with a mixed bag of good and bad news. Likely voter polls at that. Good news: O’Rourke D-TX +2 Sinema D-AZ +3 Bad news: Heller R-NV +3 Blackburn R-TN +3 Scott R-FL +1 Possibly a three point race in Tennessee is good news, but whatever. Also likely voter screen, margin of error, usual caveats, blah, blah, blah… ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2018, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/235 "2018-09-22T00:20:43Z")
This might be the most savage [campaign ad](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1043291345048223744) I’ve seen, where six of Paul Gosar’s (Arizona Republican) siblings endorse his opponent and decry their brother’s lack of values. (That said Nate Silver gives Gosar’s opponent something of a snowball chance in hell of winning.) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2018, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/236 "2018-09-22T02:22:31Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > This might be the most savage [campaign ad](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1043291345048223744) I’ve seen, where six of Paul Gosar’s (Arizona Republican) siblings endorse his opponent and decry their brother’s lack of values. > > (That said Nate Silver gives Gosar’s opponent something of a snowball chance in hell of winning.) WOW! I’d never heard of Paul Gosar, but that’s very damning. And the fact that (acc. Nate Silver) he’ll win anyway despite six (Republican!) siblings who know him best attacking him is … _ **Flabbergasting** _ for what it says about the values of Republican voters. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2018, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/237 "2018-10-05T19:29:59Z")
Ugh. Senate is not looking good. Heitkamp’s numbers are falling in a big way. If she loses, then the Dems would need to sweep MO/NV/FL/AZ and also pick off one more, presumably TX or TN, in order to flip the chamber. 51-49 GOP looks like the likeliest outcome right now. 50-50 is certainly plausible but not good enough. And if Dems do just a little worse than expected it could easily be 54-46. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/238 "2018-10-09T01:45:48Z")
No predictions, but I don’t think the Dems take the Senate, and I think their chances of having a blue wave got smaller. I think progressive voters will be energized to vote against Trump’s GOP, but I also think that a lot of quiet, independent voters are beginning to see Trump as a sonofabitch, but ‘their sonofabitch’. I think Dems retake the House but just barely and I think they’ll be disappointed at the results. The Dems won’t have that much power, and what power they might have could play into Trump’s hands. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/239 "2018-10-09T10:58:35Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > No predictions, but … Why not? ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/240 "2018-10-09T13:21:22Z")
[Interesting analysis](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-big-blue-wave-could-overwhelm-the-gops-advantage-in-the-house/), and I apologize if this is obvious to other people. Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. The premise of gerrymandering being not wasting votes, so putting enough GOP votes to be considered “safe” within the districts that you intend to win, but no more than that. But, if what was considered safe when the districts was drawn shifts, then all of a sudden the dam breaks and those safe districts go Democrat. The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=13)