# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/241 "2018-10-09T14:02:45Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Why not? My head hurts. But my ego might compel me to make more specific predictions anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/242 "2018-10-09T17:14:01Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > [Interesting analysis](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-big-blue-wave-could-overwhelm-the-gops-advantage-in-the-house/), and I apologize if this is obvious to other people. Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. The premise of gerrymandering being not wasting votes, so putting enough GOP votes to be considered “safe” within the districts that you intend to win, but no more than that. But, if what was considered safe when the districts was drawn shifts, then all of a sudden the dam breaks and those safe districts go Democrat. > > The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8. I’ve been pointing this out for years: > [@The Dems will sweep into power in both the House and the Senate as well as the Presidency](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-dems-will-sweep-into-power-in-both-the-house-and-the-senate-as-well-as-the-presidency/754482/47): > > I think many people underestimate the potential impact of gerrymandering. Take Ohio, for example. The voting indices by district, in order from pro-Republican (+) to pro-Democrat (-) are: [+14, +9, +9, +8, +8, +6, +6, +5, +5, +5, +3, +2, -12, -14, -15, -30](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_congressional_districts). The baseline is 12 R and 4 D in the House, if the presidential race has no down-ticket impact. If there’s a 3.5-point effect in favor of the Democrats, it’ll go 10 R, 6 D. A 5.5-point effect, results in 7 R, 9 D. And 6.5 goes to 5 R, 11 D. In contrast, even a 10-point shift in favor of the Republicans does not result in the Democrats losing any seats. > > Gerrymandering really tilts the results non-linearly. I’m glad 538 is giving it more attention. It’s too mathy for most people to understand. But it’s exactly why as many people as possible should vote, especially in districts where they are often in the minority. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/243 "2018-10-09T19:51:45Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Check my work, people. This needs to be crowd sourced. I didn’t see my guess in there. 215D 48D 50%D Post 192 ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/244 "2018-10-09T23:33:33Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > [Interesting analysis](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-big-blue-wave-could-overwhelm-the-gops-advantage-in-the-house/), and I apologize if this is obvious to other people. Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. The premise of gerrymandering being not wasting votes, so putting enough GOP votes to be considered “safe” within the districts that you intend to win, but no more than that. But, if what was considered safe when the districts was drawn shifts, then all of a sudden the dam breaks and those safe districts go Democrat. > > The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8. … and now you know exactly why my prediction for the House is what it is. I believe Dems (in an honest election) will break in this way, and all that careful gerrymandering by Republicans is going to hoist them on their own petard in 2018. I admit my Senate prediction may be a tad rosy, but not beyond what’s possible in a tsunami wave election. I do wish Heitkamp was doing better, but I admire her for her integrity. I’m changing nothing. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/245 "2018-10-10T02:25:51Z")
Beyond the mathematical fragility, there is the human, the political. This scheme is shrewd, a small but solid advantage that, over the long run, is a net positive for the Republican Party. Always going to be some flukes, sometimes the advantage isn’t enough, sometimes its more than needed, but its a net gain over all. Except for the guy who doesn’t get elected because you nerfed his district. He’s expected to smile and take one for the team. But the team has changed. Now, its Trump’s team. The share of Republicans who adore President Shroomdick may be enough to nominate a candidate in the primary but not nearly enough to elect them, even given the built in margin. If the Republican Party were still the Bob Dole/Poppy Bush Party, this would have been a pretty good plan. Utterly and irredeemably wrong, of course, but functional. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/246 "2018-10-10T02:46:00Z")
Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case… ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/247 "2018-10-10T12:49:57Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Basically, 538 pointing out that at a certain point of Democratic party voting, GOP gerrymandering actually would break hard toward Democrats. … > > The inflection point where the vote goes from linear to non-linear is about D+8. In the House elections of 2012 and 2016 the popular vote was almost evenly split between Ds and R’s, yet the Rs got in each case about 55% of the seats. (Some of this advantage results from systemic, rather than deliberate, gerrymandering.) Expect this to get much worse in 2022. The GOP is already planning to rig the census; we now have a Supreme Court that loves all pro-GOP gerrymandering. And remember: When I write “popular vote” above, that includes only voters _allowed_ to vote. Just at the very last moment, the GOP has disenfranchised perhaps hundreds of thousands of likely-D voters for the upcoming election. Some of us were hoping for the “inflection point” you mention, but the tide seems to have turned back. The GOP has found a unifying issue it can rally around: Hatred for alleged victims of attempted rape. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/248 "2018-10-10T12:55:07Z")
Yeah I’m not going to be entering this because of the nonlinear effects. I very sure that the swing will be between 4 and 8 points but there is a huge difference in what happens to the House at those different levels. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/249 "2018-10-10T13:41:48Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case… I expect anytime before election day. > [@Ludovic](#): > > Yeah I’m not going to be entering this because of the nonlinear effects. I very sure that the swing will be between 4 and 8 points but there is a huge difference in what happens to the House at those different levels. Pfft, that’s what makes it fun. We can all read the polls, but how that translates into Congressional seats is mostly guesswork. Of course, my entry is the one that’s going to win, so it’s not like your guess would matter anyway. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/250 "2018-10-10T20:33:49Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case… Date of entry is the 3rd tiebreaker; I think that’s to discourage late entries. _ **However** _, it may be unlikely(\*) that the 3rd tiebreaker will be applied, and there are still smart slots open. For example, _the particular House seat count that Nate Silver’s site shows as most likely has zero takers right now!_ - - Despite that claim, I see that there is 0.4% chance (using Silver’s numbers and assuming no new or changed entries) that **Railer13** will be the grand winner instead o me just because his entry was on January 22, 6 days before mine! (Both he and I have almost 4% chance of winning w/o that tiebreaker.) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/251 "2018-10-10T20:46:47Z")
And based on the analysis I just did, I think my best play is to sacrifice my coveted January entry date and switch to 224, 48, 53% ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2018, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/252 "2018-10-16T13:38:06Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Apologies if this has been said, but can we change our votes, and if so, what’s the deadline to do so? Not that I’m thinking of doing it, but just in case… Yes, anytime before election day, November 6. I’m in the east so let’s say midnight, November 5, 2018. I’ve been away - hey Cuba! - so I’ll catch up on updating the chart tonight if I can. What’d I miss? ---
**Author:** ![Smitty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Smitty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smitty)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2018, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/253 "2018-10-16T13:54:47Z")
House - 219R, 216D Senate - 53R, 47D Vote 51%D, 49%R ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2018, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/254 "2018-10-16T21:40:41Z")
we have a Dem running for Congress and her ads say she “worked in tobacco fields” , I guess as a kid. This is in NC. I guess that’s her trying to say she’s a regular person. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/255 "2018-10-31T18:51:23Z")
USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53 Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51 Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55 Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56 Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53 Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57 adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53 BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56 Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55 Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56 Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52 DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52 UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50 D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51 Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54 Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52 Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49 wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52 pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48 Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53 iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55 JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54 kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100 Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49 Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51 Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50 Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55 I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52 Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54 Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54 Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55 septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53 Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/256 "2018-10-31T18:52:11Z")
How’s everyone feeling? Confident? Not? Still time to enter! Still time to change your guess! Who’s with me here? Sound off, people? Show me you mean what you say! ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/257 "2018-10-31T18:59:03Z")
D House seats: 228 D Senate seats: 48 D Vote %: 53 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/258 "2018-10-31T18:59:35Z")
I could change my guess to match perfectly 538’s current prediction (which is what I would bet if there were truly any stakes for such a prediction), but my entry was deliberately on the optimistic side, and I’ll leave it there. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/259 "2018-10-31T22:02:24Z")
USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53 Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51 Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55 Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56 Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53 Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57 adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53 BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56 Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55 Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56 Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52 DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52 UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50 D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51 Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54 Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52 Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49 wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52 pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48 Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53 iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55 JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54 kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100 Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49 Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51 Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50 Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55 I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52 Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54 Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54 Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55 septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53 Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51 Richard Parker 10/31/18 228 48 53 ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/260 "2018-10-31T22:13:40Z")
Did USCdiver change his entry and I grabbed pole position? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=14)