# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/261 "2018-10-31T22:19:47Z")
Nope. C&P issue. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/262 "2018-10-31T22:21:13Z")
**House:** 230 D’s, 205 R’s \*\*Senate: \*\* 47 D’s, 53 R’s \*\*National vote: \*\* 52% Democratic, 44% Republican ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/263 "2018-10-31T23:37:18Z")
The entries are coming in fast now! ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2018, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/264 "2018-10-31T23:48:45Z")
I’m not at all confident in my picks and in fact I’d probably put the Senate at 48 if I were willing to give up my prime position. Maybe I’ll look at the list the day before and see if there’s is an combo reasonably close that hasn’t already been picked before I make a change. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/265 "2018-11-01T00:41:25Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > I’m not at all confident in my picks and in fact I’d probably put the Senate at 48 if I were willing to give up my prime position. Maybe I’ll look at the list the day before and see if there’s is an combo reasonably close that hasn’t already been picked before I make a change. It’s only your Senate number that seems improbable. Personally I think getting close early on is more impressive than being exactly right on eve of, let alone getting the split right, but the game is the game. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2018, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/266 "2018-11-01T01:54:41Z")
USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53 Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51 Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55 Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56 Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53 Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57 adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53 BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56 Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55 Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56 Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52 DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52 UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50 D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51 Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54 Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52 Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49 wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52 pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48 Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53 iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55 JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54 kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100 Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49 Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51 Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50 Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55 I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52 Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54 Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54 Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55 septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53 Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51 Richard Parker 10/31/18 228 48 53 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/267 "2018-11-05T10:44:59Z")
With high hope for the future, no prediction in regard to it is ventured. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/268 "2018-11-05T12:47:49Z")
My guess (probably overly-optimistic, but oh well): 1. Republicans keep the House: 220 R vs 215 D 2. Republicans pick up 3 Senate seats: 54 R vs 46 D 3. Democrats win the popular vote (so that they have something to complain about for the next two years): 52% D vs 48% R ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/269 "2018-11-05T13:39:02Z")
Yes, it is very optimistic to expect a government that depends less on the will of most people. /s ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/270 "2018-11-05T13:57:50Z")
Ds 233 49 54% ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/271 "2018-11-05T14:21:27Z")
About 15 hours to get your predictions in, people! Last chance is here at last! ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/272 "2018-11-05T14:40:04Z")
House: 232 D, 203 R Senate: 50 D, 50 R Popular Vote: 54% D, 46% R ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/273 "2018-11-05T15:51:13Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > …3) Democrats win the popular vote (so that they have something to complain about for the next two years): 52% D vs 48% R I don’t even…da fuq?..Is this Utah humor? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/274 "2018-11-05T16:09:52Z")
I’m happy with my estimate. I think there’s a systemic error in the polls, with likely voter models underestimating anti-Republican turn-out. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/275 "2018-11-05T16:14:34Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > I’m happy with my estimate. I think there’s a systemic error in the polls, with likely voter models underestimating anti-Republican turn-out. I think I’m happy with my estimate too. Maybe I would have gone a couple seats higher (like 231 vs 226) but I am more satisfied that I have stuck with my prediction for quite a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/276 "2018-11-05T16:28:21Z")
My prediction 243: 50: 55% ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/277 "2018-11-05T16:35:53Z")
These are the times that try men’s souls… ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/278 "2018-11-05T17:21:33Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > I’m happy with my estimate. I think there’s a systemic error in the polls, with likely voter models underestimating anti-Republican turn-out. That’s what I think, too, and have obviously thought for as long as you have. This calculus has been borne out in special election after special election, by margins of 8-12%. I think Dems found their intensity after the 2016 election, and it hasn’t abated one bit. I think it has only grown. In all candor, I think your numbers are going to be closer than mine, but I choose to remain the most hopeful liberal on the board. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/279 "2018-11-05T19:35:58Z")
Player Date House Dem Senate Dem Vote D USCDiver 01/21/18 230 51 53 Bone 01/22/18 214 50 51 Pleonast 01/22/18 257 49 55 Dseid 01/22/18 228 49 56 Railer13 01/22/18 225 48 53 Aspenglow 01/23/18 277 52 57 adaher 01/23/18 222 45 53 BobLibDem 01/23/18 260 51 56 Johnny Ace 01/23/18 220 46 55 Wesley Clark 01/24/18 235 50 56 Ravenman 01/24/18 226 49 52 DinoR 01/25/18 238 51 52 UltraVires 01/26/18 208 46 50 D’Anconia 01/27/18 210 48 51 Yersenia Pestis 01/30/18 215 50 54 Melcalc 02/02/18 218 51 52 Silver Lining 02/16/18 209 47 49 wonky 03/04/18 219 49 52 pjacks 03/04/18 200 45 48 Sherrerd 03/05/18 201 47 53 iiandyiiii 03/15/18 241 51 55 JkellyMap 03/25/18 228 51 54 kaylasdad99 03/27/18 435 58 100 Gray Ghost 03/29/18 208 47 49 Hari Seldon 04/27/18 220 49 51 Larry Borgia 07/04/18 215 48 50 Pleonast 08/17/18 252 49 55 I Love Me, Vol 1 08/18/18 221 49 52 Big Apple Bucky 08/18/18 220 47 54 Tired and Cranky 09/13/18 228 51 54 Thing Fish 09/13/18 241 51 55 septimus 10/10/18 224 48 53 Smitty 10/16/18 219 47 51 Richard Parker 10/31/18 228 48 53 Hurricane Ditka 11/05/18 215 46 52 Monocracy 11/05/18 233 49 54 Steve MB 11/05/18 232 50 54 Buck Godot 11/05/18 243 50 55 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2018, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/280 "2018-11-05T19:42:22Z")
We have 9 hours and 24 minutes to go until the cut off, people! Last chance! Plus, here are the averages and such: **House:** Average Pick: 231.97 Highest D Count: 277 (Aspenglow) Lowest D Count: 200 (pjacks) **Senate:** Average Pick: 49.02 Highest D Count: 52 (Aspenglow) Lowest D Count: 45 (adaher tied with pjacks but adaher got there first) **Vote %** Average Pick: 54.18% Highest: 57% (Aspenglow) Lowest: 48% (pjacks) I discounted kaylasdad’s non-serious entry indicating that the D side would win everything, all races, all votes. Looks like Aspenglow is our optimist and pjacks is our pessimist. Depending on one’s point of view, of course. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=15)