# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/301 "2018-11-07T14:34:33Z")
🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/302 "2018-11-07T14:47:31Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think **Richard Parker** might be closest overall, but I don’t recall the exact rules of how to determine the winner. Excluding the popular vote, and looking at the Washington Post results, he appears to be four seats off from the interim results. Then we have a pileup of guesses that were five off: **Dseid, Railer, Adaher,** and yours truly. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/303 "2018-11-07T15:08:28Z")
Much easier to guess the outcome at the end of October than in March. If I win and there is someone with a pre-June vote who is within a seat or two of my guess then I suggest you give them the prognostication title. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/304 "2018-11-07T18:19:19Z")
Remember when Larry Kudlow said the stock market was tanking in October because [it feared a Democratic takeover](https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/10/trump-the-fed-chair-hates-me/)? That was on Oct 23rd. Today, the day after the 2018 election, the S&P 500 is up 1.60%. The Dow is up 386 points. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/305 "2018-11-08T01:01:23Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Much easier to guess the outcome at the end of October than in March. If I win and there is someone with a pre-June vote who is within a seat or two of my guess then I suggest you give them the prognostication title. Well as the first to post of that tied for second place group (_just_ edging out **Railer** ) allow me to also be first to post that it’s like the electoral college: the rules may or may not be fair but they were clear. Mind you I wouldn’t turn down a runner up title … 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/306 "2018-11-08T02:13:43Z")
Who knows? Perhaps aliens will invade before we find out. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/307 "2018-11-08T03:08:15Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Well as the first to post of that tied for second place group (_just_ edging out **Railer** ) Sumbitch. Story of my life. Two hours late and two democrats short. But second runner up doesn’t sound bad, either. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/308 "2018-11-08T03:23:15Z")
Seriously one of the more notable things about this election is that a rational prediction in January would not be made very differently eve of. Even from back in January the generic ballot stayed true to the same center of gravity and even then it was pretty clear that Ds winning the Senate, or even any ground, was a unlikely and more likely to lose a few than to win a few (but even on eve of there was reason to hold out some hope) … ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/309 "2018-11-08T03:36:25Z")
According to 538 it may be weeks before we have the final returns. Sometime next week I’ll publish a preliminary outcome and - if it looks solid - declare a winner. If there’s still significant uncertainty it’ll be nail biting time for some of you. Can you survive the suspense? > **[We’re Tracking The Unresolved Midterm Races](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-16-races-still-too-close-to-call/)** > > UPDATE (Nov. 21, 8:21 p.m., 2018): With so few races outstanding, this will be our last update to this article (although we will continue to update our real-tim… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/310 "2018-11-08T03:39:57Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Excluding the popular vote, and looking at the Washington Post results, he appears to be four seats off from the interim results. Then we have a pileup of guesses that were five off: **Dseid, Railer, Adaher,** and yours truly. Wait, I had a prediction that was close? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/311 "2018-11-08T21:10:41Z")
Yeah, your 222 for the house is going to be way low, but 45 for the Senate isn’t a bad guess. As an update, it looks like we’ll be going to a recount for the FLA Senate race and the AZ Senate race will be counting non-traditional votes for a week. It’s too early to tell the final outcome of several house races, too. Everyone hang on to your butts. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/312 "2018-11-09T02:17:57Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > … Everyone hang on to your butts. And your chads. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/313 "2018-11-09T03:00:48Z")
Ugh. That was a terrible time. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/314 "2018-11-09T14:32:00Z")
Meanwhile the standings as they stand! **Senate** can still be anything from 46 to 49D. Mississippi has to have a run-off but with no split will highly likely be R; AZ with a narrow D lead; FL in recount range but odds are R. Most likely is **D47** end of day but don’t yet know. D46 maybe and D48 not impossible. D49? No. **House** can still _theoretically_ be anything from D225 to D238 but going with current leans in counting so far and most probable is **D230**. Three of the five leaning Ds are currently at over 2% margin (one at 1.1% and one 0.6%). On the R lean side there are four with an under 1% margin. Pretty safe to say 228 as a minimum, and greater than 234 near impossible. The odds of **Richard Parker** not having the winning entry are pretty low. The only poster with any realistic chance of beating him out at this point might be **Monocracy** ’s day before entry of 233 49 as House 231 with Senate 46 to 48 would tie and House 232 or more would give them the win. Tie might give **Monocracy** the win too as the D share looks to be closer to 54 than to 53 (even though **Richard Parker** was earlier to post). Fun stuff! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/315 "2018-11-10T02:09:08Z")
I would like to give a shout out to the wisdom of this crowd. Looking at just the ones posted before the end of March (long before 538 published their model) we had a median House prediction of 226 and and average of 235. Given the likely result of near 230 that is flippin’ amazing. And on the Senate side same early period 49 was the median and the average. Not shabby crowd wisdom! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/316 "2018-11-10T02:32:28Z")
One of the good things about sharing the internet with a bunch of smug smartasses is useful for the lazy mathtard. So, who came in skunk-ass Aggie last? For my own part, I promise to keep my snark to a minimum in deference to the feelings of the unknown dumfuque. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 8:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/317 "2018-11-10T08:28:23Z")
I think if the House ends at 230, I should get some sort of honorable mention for being right on the first guess back in January. I was off by a couple in the Senate of course, but still! ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/318 "2018-11-10T13:39:49Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > One of the good things about sharing the internet with a bunch of smug smartasses is useful for the lazy mathtard. So, who came in skunk-ass Aggie last? > > For my own part, I promise to keep my snark to a minimum in deference to the feelings of the unknown dumfuque. Nobody tell him we’re just throwing darts and seeing what happens. It would disappoint him so. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/319 "2018-11-10T14:12:00Z")
Shit, **Johnathon** , didn’t know it was _you_! Nothin’ personal. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2018, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/320 "2018-11-10T15:03:55Z")
Heck, I didn’t even put in an entry. Where do you guys think we should get the popular vote totals? It’s still a moving target and there are answers across the board depending on which numbers sites are using. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=17)