# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 19\
**Page:** 18

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/341 "2018-11-16T13:54:22Z")

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Yeah, different places are going to have different lists. I’m using the wiki page for raw numbers. It still shows 6 outstanding - and 2 senate seats - and gives a list of which ones.

> **[2018 United States House of Representatives elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018#Seats_to_be_called)**
>
> Paul Ryan
> Republican
> Nancy Pelosi
> Democratic
> The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 6, 2018, as part of the 2018 midterm elections during President Donald Trump's term, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states to serve in the 116th United States Congress. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four o...

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/342 "2018-11-16T15:15:10Z")

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Thanks! Looks like Wiki and Vox are on the same page, but Vox hadn’t updated with the ME-2 outcome yet.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/343 "2018-11-16T15:20:03Z")

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Coming down to the wire.

I admit, I’m leaning hard on wiki, here. But whoever’s updating that page seems to be staying on top of things and aggregating pretty well.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/344 "2018-11-16T15:46:27Z")

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I am very happy to have lost to those who predicted more D House seats!

Rooting for **Wesley Clark**! Woot!

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/345 "2018-11-16T15:53:45Z")

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I think right now anywhere between 233-236 is possible. It’s going to be interesting.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [November 16, 2018, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/346 "2018-11-16T17:32:10Z")

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> [@DSeid](#):
>
> I am very happy to have lost to those who predicted more D House seats!
> 
> Rooting for **Wesley Clark**! Woot!

Ditto! Go Wesley!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [November 17, 2018, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/347 "2018-11-17T01:53:51Z")

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[Nate Silver says](https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1063570966981345280) CA-21 isn’t over yet; he’s saying it’s a tossup, even.

Cripes, it’s 10 days after the election, and elections that had been thought to be settled are coming back into play. Makes life interesting, that’s for sure.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 18, 2018, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/348 "2018-11-18T03:50:05Z")

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Another one called.

House D: 232  
Senate D: 47  
Vote D: 53.8%

Leaders:  
3.0  
Steve MB  
Monocacy  
5.00  
Melcalc  
Richard Parker  
6.00  
USCDiver  
Dseid  
Wesley Clark

Still 5 house races to call! And 2 Senate races! Stay tuned! It’s a nailbiter!

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/349 "2018-11-21T00:45:33Z")

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[NY-22: Brindisi leads Tenney by more than the remaining uncounted absentee ballots](https://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/11/its_over_brindisi_defeats_tenney_in_22nd_congressional_race.html)

[AP calls UT-4 for McAdams](https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624)

Up to 234 Dem House seats (max of 236 if CA-21 and GA-7 both go Dem). Still at 47 Senate seats, with just the MS runoff outstanding.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 21, 2018, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/350 "2018-11-21T04:01:27Z")

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And it might not matter!

I’ve put the 234 number into the spreadsheet. Here’s our leaderboard:

3.00  
Monocacy  
4.00  
Wesley Clark  
5.0  
Steve MB  
7.0  
Richard Parker  
Melcalc  
8.0  
USCDiver  
Dseid  
DinoR

Monocacy is looking pretty good. But if the remaining seats go D Wesley Clark has a pretty good chance of passing him. At this point, Monocacy is ON target for D seats in the house. Everyone they add works against him.

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**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\
**Post date:** [November 22, 2018, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/351 "2018-11-22T22:13:47Z")

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As of this morning, the Votemaster is claiming 234 is nearly final.

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**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\
**Post date:** [November 22, 2018, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/352 "2018-11-22T23:11:16Z")

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> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> As of this morning, the Votemaster is claiming 234 is nearly final.

That’s because AP and others still have CA-21 called as Republican. But at this point it looks close to a coin flip - the Republican still has a very slim lead,( a few hundred after leading by several thousand on election night )but the Democrat has made a huge comeback and the outstanding vote leans slightly Dem. It might yet end up at 235.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2018, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/353 "2018-11-23T01:35:11Z")

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If anyone’s interested in a small wager, I’ll take the Cox/235 side of the bet if someone wants to bet on Valadao winning to keep the total at 234.

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**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [November 23, 2018, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/354 "2018-11-23T01:57:03Z")

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I’ve heard that a total of 160 Soros buses of extra-legal voters were deployed, but the original plan was for fewer. So, there is that little bump.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 27, 2018, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/355 "2018-11-27T15:43:41Z")

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I may end up calling this after tonight’s Senate race. That may be enough to crown our winner.

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**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\
**Post date:** [November 27, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/356 "2018-11-27T16:08:31Z")

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Might give it one more day, just to be sure of the CA-21 outcome. The last batch of ballots big enough to make a difference should be counted by COB Wednesday (PST, of course).

After that, this U.S. Congressional election should finally be OVER. (And there was much rejoicing.)

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 27, 2018, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/357 "2018-11-27T19:06:50Z")

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Fun fact:

If the current vote totals hold up the D/R vote split will almost perfectly match the D/R House split.

D Vote %: 54.12%  
D House %: 54.02% (235/435)

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**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\
**Post date:** [November 27, 2018, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/358 "2018-11-27T19:22:54Z")

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> [@RTFirefly](#):
>
> Might give it one more day, just to be sure of the CA-21 outcome. The last batch of ballots big enough to make a difference should be counted by COB Wednesday (PST, of course).
> 
> After that, this U.S. Congressional election should finally be OVER. (And there was much rejoicing.)

Unless the “lame duck” House refuses to accept the result and calls for another recount. There is precedent for this, although why it would bother, I don’t know; one House seat shouldn’t matter, given the overall result.

Besides, California can probably stall until January 3, and then the new House can vote to declare the Democrat the winner.

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**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [November 27, 2018, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/359 "2018-11-27T22:44:31Z")

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So long as the numbers clearly reflect that. “Caesar’s wife” level of purity won’t cut it, because we got moves to make about gerrymandering and the principle of one navel, one vote.

Maybe a bit more, maybe even a degree of generosity, a gesture of bi-partisan accord when you got the vote to spare. Being gentle in the treatment of a defeated enemy is a very Christian and worthy thing, plus it rubs in a bit of salt at the same time.

[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=17)
