# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/21 "2018-01-23T05:38:08Z")
Yikes. This is way too tough now. I’ll need to get a feel of how this country may swing. I clearly didn’t look at that in 2016. Plus there’s gonna be fun scandals abound, I’m sure! Here’s a[cool interactive article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/can-democrats-retake-the-house/?utm_term=.7ab979ba49f7) showing the House and how/where it could change in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/22 "2018-01-23T07:03:28Z")
I’m going to believe in the wave, barring unforeseen occurrences. I’m also going to shamelessly copy **Pleonast** ’s colorful highlighting, because I like it. House = 277 D v. 158 R Senate = 52 D v. 48 R Popular Vote = 57% D v. 43% R ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/23 "2018-01-23T07:50:34Z")
Right now is a really tough time to prognosticate, so of course I’ll try it: House- 222 D, 213 R Senate: 55 R, 45 D Popular vote: 53% D, 47% R Second tie breaker should be whoever posted earlier, since there is more risk the earlier you guess. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/24 "2018-01-23T12:50:45Z")
House: 260 D, 175 R Senate: 51 D, 49 R Popular: 56% D, 44%R Just a little wave before the Blue Tsunami of 2020. ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/25 "2018-01-23T12:51:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Second tie breaker should be whoever posted earlier, since there is more risk the earlier you guess. Yes, it’s right there in the first post. :dubious: That’s why I posted early. Can always change later. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/26 "2018-01-23T15:05:44Z")
**1/21/18** [ul] [li]USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul] **1/22/18** [ul] [li]Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D[/li][li]Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D[/li][li]Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 52%D[/li][li]DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul] **1/23/18** [ul] [li]Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D[/li][li]adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D[/li][li]BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/27 "2018-01-23T18:55:10Z")
Shouldn’t the Vote tiebreaker include the R percentage? Or will non-R/D votes be counted toward D? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/28 "2018-01-23T19:09:31Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Shouldn’t the Vote tiebreaker include the R percentage? Or will non-R/D votes be counted toward D? I was wondering something similar. The popular vote percentages of R + D rarely add up to 100. So instead of using the percentages of the total popular vote, use the percentages of the fraction of the popular vote voting for R or D. That way it always adds up to 100. For example if 111 million people vote for a D representative, 99 million people vote for an R representative, and 11 million people vote for a representative from another party, then total vote percentages are 50% D, 45% R, 5% other. But the fractional popular vote percentages are 53% D, 47% R. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/29 "2018-01-23T22:42:29Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > I was wondering something similar. The popular vote percentages of R + D rarely add up to 100. So instead of using the percentages of the total popular vote, use the percentages of the fraction of the popular vote voting for R or D. That way it always adds up to 100. > > For example if 111 million people vote for a D representative, 99 million people vote for an R representative, and 11 million people vote for a representative from another party, then total vote percentages are 50% D, 45% R, 5% other. But the fractional popular vote percentages are 53% D, 47% R. Sounds fair to me, but I’ll wait for a ruling from the judge. 🙂 One way or the other, I think I’m going to have to revise my D vote number. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2018, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/30 "2018-01-23T22:50:23Z")
Eh, I can go for that. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/31 "2018-01-24T03:02:50Z")
In that case, I’d like to change my D vote number to 55%. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/32 "2018-01-24T14:40:58Z")
**1/21/18** ``` [ul] ``` [li]USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul] **1/22/18** [ul] [li]Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D[/li][li]Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D[/li][li]DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul] **1/23/18** [ul] [li]Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D[/li][li]adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D[/li][li]BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D[/li][/ul] ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/33 "2018-01-24T16:05:54Z")
I was so wrong in the presidential thread, why not try again. House - 235-200 dem majority Senate - 50-50 Vote totals 56-44 dem majority (due to gerrymandering, even with the massive advantage in votes the actual number of house seats won will be minor). ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/34 "2018-01-24T17:45:54Z")
House – 226 Dems, 209 Rs Senate – 51 R, 49 Dem Vote – 52% Dem, 46% R ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/35 "2018-01-24T20:02:03Z")
Umm why did I lose my place in the priority list? My first ‘entry’ was on 1/22. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/36 "2018-01-24T21:08:48Z")
Don’t worry. You aren’t going to win. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2018, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/37 "2018-01-24T21:16:51Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Umm why did I lose my place in the priority list? My first ‘entry’ was on 1/22. Probably because in the OP there is this: > [@](#): > > Players may guess multiple times, but only the latest one will count toward the contest and the time stamp tiebreaker. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/38 "2018-01-25T01:33:13Z")
Is this the thread just for the game or also to discuss the impact of events on the possible outcomes? Should we instead bring those items to the [Mid-term prediction](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=846430) thread? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/39 "2018-01-25T02:58:23Z")
No, I’d like to see discussion and chatter here as well. Certainly about how real world event impact the likelihood of certain outcomes. As we get closer I’ll make sure we have threads about other races and such. But this is about the horse race, here. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/40 "2018-01-25T03:01:33Z")
1/21/18 [ul] [li]USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul] 1/22/18 [ul] [li]Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D[/li][li]Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D[/li][li]DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D[/li][/ul] 1/23/18 [ul] [li]Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D[/li][li]adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D[/li][li]BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D[/li][/ul] 1/24/18 [ul] [li]Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D[/li][li]Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D[/li][/ul] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125.md?page=3)