# Official 2018 Midterm Election Contest

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 21, 2018, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125 "2018-01-21T14:14:47Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 8

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**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\
**Post date:** [March 22, 2018, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/141 "2018-03-22T18:30:14Z")

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> [@Sherrerd](#):
>
> That’s not a safe assumption, given that Republican turnout will be massive—they are VERY disturbed by the uppity teens advocating for gun control, and by the uppity females calling out males for misconduct. Add in the ongoing GOP and Russian shenanigans with all aspects of the voting process, from registrations to voting machines, and you have what will be–at best–tight races for the Democrats, nationwide.

How do you account for the failure of these disturbed Republicans to turn out in massive numbers for any of the special elections so far? Thus far, we have seen a consistent pattern of low turnout in Republican areas and high turnout in Democratic areas.

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**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\
**Post date:** [March 22, 2018, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/142 "2018-03-22T23:01:01Z")

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> [@Thing\_Fish](#):
>
> How do you account for the failure of these disturbed Republicans to turn out in massive numbers for any of the special elections so far? Thus far, we have seen a consistent pattern of low turnout in Republican areas and high turnout in Democratic areas.

I hadn’t heard that the GOP turnout was lower than usual–just that the Dem turnout was good. (If you have a citation handy, feel free to share it.)

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**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/143 "2018-03-23T02:24:35Z")

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Eh, as usual on this forum, my cite is “something I’m pretty sure I read on 538 a while back”. I could look so much smarter if that site was easily searchable.

But regardless, the actual results of the special elections thus far seem to indicate that Dems are in a good position.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [March 23, 2018, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/144 "2018-03-23T03:56:47Z")

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Well from [The Weekly Standard](http://www.weeklystandard.com/republicans-have-a-turnout-problem.-also-a-few-other-problems./article/2010990)…

> [@](#):
>
> … Part of the GOP’s problem is that the Trump-iest voters—less well educated, often rural whites—don’t seem to be showing up in great numbers while highly enthusiastic Democrats are. This has been a common refrain among election wonks. Nate Cohn had a helpful piece on this idea after the Alabama special Senate election, and Dave Wasserman has some valuable data on how low turnout from non-college-educated whites and high turnout among college-educated whites could help Democrats in the midterms.
> 
> But it’s also worth looking at some maps and data to get a sense of how pronounced this problem is. [detailed analysis follows] …

Updating it with data from the primary elections [this week](http://kdhnews.com/news/politics/democrats-fuel-for-a-house-majority-suburban-discontent/article_55c982ef-193b-545f-be7e-d118eee65914.html) in Illinois:

> [@](#):
>
> … In Illinois primary elections on Tuesday, the five counties that wrap around Chicago’s Cook County saw Democrats cast almost five times as many ballots as they did four years ago, ahead of a midterm romp for the GOP. Republicans, meanwhile, saw their turnout drop by almost a quarter of what it was in 2014. …

There is at this point no evidence to support a belief that “Republican turnout will be massive”. If you have some, feel free to share it.

Now of course none of these elections have been the midterm elections and much can change between now and then. We’ll see.

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**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\
**Post date:** [March 24, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/145 "2018-03-24T20:31:22Z")

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> [@DSeid](#):
>
> Well from [The Weekly Standard](http://www.weeklystandard.com/republicans-have-a-turnout-problem.-also-a-few-other-problems./article/2010990)…
> 
> Updating it with data from the primary elections [this week](http://kdhnews.com/news/politics/democrats-fuel-for-a-house-majority-suburban-discontent/article_55c982ef-193b-545f-be7e-d118eee65914.html) in Illinois:
> 
> There is at this point no evidence to support a belief that “Republican turnout will be massive”. If you have some, feel free to share it.
> 
> Now of course none of these elections have been the midterm elections and much can change between now and then. We’ll see.

Thanks for that, DSeid.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/146 "2018-03-25T15:38:34Z")

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My pleasure!

So 538’s generic poll tracker is inexplicably down to D+5.5, which if true would portend likely not only no wave but possibly not winning a majority.

What should we make of that?

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/147 "2018-03-25T17:44:22Z")

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> [@DSeid](#):
>
> My pleasure!
> 
> So 538’s generic poll tracker is inexplicably down to D+5.5, which if true would portend likely not only no wave but possibly not winning a majority.
> 
> What should we make of that?

Nothing unless it stays like this through election day. It fluctuates day to day, snapshots don’t tell us anything, especially this early.

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**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [March 25, 2018, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/148 "2018-03-25T17:53:04Z")

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My prediction:

228D 51D 54%D

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**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/149 "2018-03-27T00:39:02Z")

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> [@DSeid](#):
>
> So 538’s generic poll tracker is inexplicably down to D+5.5,[snipped]  
> What should we make of that?

By itself very little:

- Looking at 538’s [generic ballot tracker](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/) they include an error bar to cover 90% of polls. Except for a period from Dec17-Jan18 those bars have overlapped.
- Their graph lumps together results that include everyone, registered voters, and likely votes. Registered voter results dominate. Since we’re talking midterm elections with turnout being a major factor that’s a potential issue.
- If you are looking at the difference between two candidates/positions/generic candidates in the same poll question it takes about double the margin of error for the difference to be statistically significant. ([A look at the more detailed statistical underpinnings.](https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf)) Clicking through to the most recent Fox and Marist Polls (skipping the Ipsos because it was only graded A- to their A grades by 538) show 3.0 and 3.1% MOE respectively. Both show D+5. Neither is a statistically significant difference between the parties.
- Comparing poll to poll is a different formula. If the margin of error is the same in both polls, the result is needing 1.41 times the margin of error for a statistically significant change at the 95% confidence interval. The drop in the Marist polls from 7 in Feb to the more recent March poll is from D+7 to D+5. the move needed for a statistically significant change is just 4.4%. That two-point shift could just be polling noise, not a real change.

Aggregating data does help reduce the effects of the statistical error. Different methods of computing trends can help to sort out statistical noise from sustained changes. The generic ballot polls historical are pretty descriptive of the actual results. There’s some art that adds to the science (things like assumptions to predict likely voters or weighting polls based on historical performance like 538 does.) With deeper dives, it can be possible to tweak a little bit of predictive power out of results that aren’t significant.

At the surface level, though, going from a recent D+8 to D+5.5 today is effectively meaningless without that deeper dive.

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**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/150 "2018-03-27T02:53:54Z")

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If anyone is interested and has a smidge of Python skills, here’s some code to download all the generic house ballot polls recorded at Huffpost Pollster and ingest them into a pandas dataframe. This particular script outputs a rolling average of Dem minus Rep, but once you have the data you can do whatever you want with it.

```auto

import pandas as pd
import datetime

url = 'http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/api/v2/questions/18-US-House/poll-responses-clean.tsv'
df_raw = pd.read_csv(filepath_or_buffer = url, 
                     sep = '	', 
                     parse_dates = ['start_date', 'end_date'])

# Filter out undesirable subpopulations. In this case they contain dashes '-'
df = df_raw[df_raw['sample_subpopulation'].apply(lambda x: '-' not in x)]

# Drop columns we don't need
df = df.loc[:,['Democrat', 'Republican', 'start_date', 'end_date']]

# Add net job approval column
df['Net'] = df['Democrat'] - df['Republican']

# Add average date column
df['avg_date'] = df['start_date'] + (df['end_date'] - df['start_date']) / 2

# Restrict to only columns of interest
df = df.loc[:,['avg_date', 'Net']]

# Helper function. Compute average of 'Net' column for rows within delta days (+-) of thedate
def rollingavg(thedate, thedf):
    days = 7
    delta = datetime.timedelta(days=days)
    temp = thedf[(thedf['avg_date'] >= thedate - delta) & (thedf['avg_date'] <= thedate + delta)]
    return temp['Net'].mean()

# Create final dataframe
min_date = df_raw['start_date'].min()
max_date = df_raw['end_date'].max()
df_final = pd.DataFrame(pd.date_range(min_date, max_date), columns = ['Date'])
df_final['Advantage'] = df_final['Date'].apply(lambda x: rollingavg(x, df))
df_final = df_final.set_index('Date')

# Show plot.
df_final['Advantage'].plot()
print(df_final['Advantage'].describe())

```

Of course, the code tag bug is still inexplicably hanging around despite the one line fix presented to the admins way back when the new theme was new. Sure would be nice if they fixed that.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/151 "2018-03-27T14:05:39Z")

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Guess I might as well go with my heart. Worst-case scenario, I get the HIGH score; best-case, I and the country win.  
House: 435 Dem, 0 Repub  
Senate: 58 Dem, 42 Repub  
National: 100 Dem, 0 Repub

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/152 "2018-03-27T17:12:34Z")

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**1/21/18**  
USCDiver House 230D, Senate 51D, Vote 53%D  
**1/22/18**  
Bone House 214D, Senate 50D, Vote 51%D  
Pleonast House 257D, Senate 49D, Vote 55%D  
DSeid House 228D, Senate 49D, Vote 56%D  
Railer13 House 225D, Senate 48D, Vote 53%D  
**1/23/18**  
Aspenglow House 277D, Senate 52D, Vote 57%D  
adaher House 222D, Senate 45D, Vote 53%D  
BobLibDem House 260D, Senate 51D, Vote 56%D  
Johnny Ace House 220D, Senate 46D, Vote 55%D  
**1/24/18**  
Wesley Clark House 235D, Senate 50D, Vote 56%D  
Ravenman House 226D, Senate 49D, Vote 52%D  
**1/25/18**  
DinoR House 238D Senate 51D, Vote 52%  
**1/26/18**  
UltraVires House 208D, Senate 46D, Vote 50%D  
**1/27/18**  
D’Anconia House 210D, Senate 48D, Vote 51%D  
**1/28/18**  
septimus House 223D Senate 50D, Vote 53%D  
**1/30/18**  
Yersenia Pestis House 215D Senate 50D Vote 54%D  
**2/2/18**  
Melcalc House 218D Senate 51D Vote 52%D  
**2/16/18**  
Silver lining 209D Senate 47D Vote 49%D  
**3/2/18**  
Hari Seldon 230D 50D Vote 53D  
**3/4/18**  
wonky 219D 49D 52D  
pjacks 200D 45D 48D  
**3/5/18**  
Sherrerd 201D 47D 53%D  
**3/15/18**  
iiandyiiii 241D 51D 55%D  
**3/22/18**  
ThingFish 248D 52D 55%D  
**3/25/18**  
JKellyMap 228D 51D 54%D  
**3/27/18**  
kaylasdad99 435D 58D 100%D

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/153 "2018-03-27T21:10:48Z")

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> [@kaylasdad99](#):
>
> Guess I might as well go with my heart. Worst-case scenario, I get the HIGH score; best-case, I and the country win.  
> House: 435 Dem, 0 Repub  
> Senate: 58 Dem, 42 Repub  
> National: 100 Dem, 0 Repub

Oh, sure. 🙂 But why so pessimistic (relatively) about the Senate?

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**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/154 "2018-03-27T21:15:46Z")

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> [@Sherrerd](#):
>
> Oh, sure. 🙂 But why so pessimistic (relatively) about the Senate?

Barring more republicans quitting/dying, there’s only 9 Republican seats up for grabs.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/155 "2018-03-27T21:31:58Z")

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That was my take on it. Only so many seats in play barring revolution and the guillotine and such.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\
**Post date:** [March 27, 2018, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/156 "2018-03-27T21:56:43Z")

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Oh, of course. I guess the rate at which we’re getting announcements of retirements was distracting me from the fact that it’s mostly announcements about House seats. No matter how bad the news becomes for the GOP, it IS unlikely that all their Senators will suddenly decide they need to spend more time with their families.

(But that’s not _completely_ in the realm of the impossible…)

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/157 "2018-03-28T04:54:18Z")

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> [@Sherrerd](#):
>
> Oh, sure. 🙂 But why so pessimistic (relatively) about the Senate?

Because they currently hold 51 seats, only nine of which have terms expiring next January.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/158 "2018-03-28T13:37:21Z")

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> [@kaylasdad99](#):
>
> Because they currently hold 51 seats, only nine of which have terms expiring next January.

What do have against mass resignations? 🙂

ETA: Darn, Sherrerd got there first.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/159 "2018-03-28T15:08:25Z")

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> [@JKellyMap](#):
>
> What do have against mass resignations? 🙂
> 
> ETA: Darn, Sherrerd got there first.

I have nothing against them, _per se_, but come on, I’m not DELUSIONAL.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [March 28, 2018, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/official-2018-midterm-election-contest/807125/160 "2018-03-28T15:32:04Z")

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It’s true!

He’s only at ‘whack-a-doo’…he hasn’t gone ‘full bugfuck’. You never go full bugfuck.

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