# OH-12 Special Election 8/7 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 27, 2018, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227 "2018-04-27T17:01:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2018, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/1 "2018-04-27T17:01:33Z")
This one’s to fill GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi’s vacant seat. Special election August 7, primaries May 8. It’s been in GOP hands since 1983, and has a R+7 Cook PVI. But the Cook Political Report [just moved this race from Lean R to Tossup](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989840071028301824). 😃 [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_12th_congressional_district_special_election,_2018), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_12th_Congressional_District_special_election,_2018) links to this special election. ETA: [Wikipedia on the 12th District itself](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_12th_congressional_district). It’s got a curvy shape taking in territory to the north and east of Columbus. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2018, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/2 "2018-04-27T20:39:39Z")
What is the point of having a special election in August for a seat that expires on January 1. Especially since it is an election year so nothing will happen in Congress after Labor Day. I’m a political junkie, so I’d probably vote in a special election in August. But, I wouldn’t be super motivated unless control of the House of Representatives was possible. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2018, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/3 "2018-04-27T20:47:47Z")
How does that even work when the primary for the general election is also on May 8th? Do they just have an election for the same two people again in November? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2018, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/4 "2018-04-28T01:01:28Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > How does that even work when the primary for the general election is also on May 8th? Do they just have an election for the same two people again in November? Hell if I know. And you’d think that for the special, they could have a shorter interval between primary and election. But it’s important that people have Congressional representation. And I don’t think “we’re not really expecting Congress to do anything then” is a decent counterargument. If the Dems retake Congress, I bet the GOP gets a sudden burst of energy during the lame-duck session. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2018, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/5 "2018-04-28T01:53:15Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Do they just have an election for the same two people again in November? Assuming the same people win the primaries, yes. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2018, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/6 "2018-04-28T15:05:38Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Hell if I know. And you’d think that for the special, they could have a shorter interval between primary and election. Ohio plans elections in quarterly intervals. So each year there can be four election days. When a special - or local or whatever - election is needed it happens on one of those planned days. The governor and legislature can override this, of course, but I didn’t see it happen the entire time I was active up there. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2018, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/7 "2018-04-29T00:39:23Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Ohio plans elections in quarterly intervals. So each year there can be four election days. When a special - or local or whatever - election is needed it happens on one of those planned days. > > The governor and legislature can override this, of course, but I didn’t see it happen the entire time I was active up there. And the ones that have to happen on other dates are often even sillier. The special election to replace Stephanie Tubbs Jones was held in mid-November, _after_ her successor was elected to a full term. Marcia Fudge was unopposed and turnout was something like 2%. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2018, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/8 "2018-04-29T22:36:16Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > How does that even work when the primary for the general election is also on May 8th? Do they just have an election for the same two people again in November? If I am reading the information correctly, there are two separate primaries in the 12th district; one is to fill the rest of the current term, and one is for the one that starts in 2019. (According to the 20th Amendment, all Congressional terms start on January 3 at noon.) Yes, a lot of candidates are running in both of the primaries. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2018, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/9 "2018-05-04T12:01:15Z")
[TPM has a good piece on the race](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/recipe-for-disaster-gop-braces-for-another-brutal-special-election-in-ohio), mostly focusing on the GOP primary. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/10 "2018-07-17T18:32:05Z")
A [WaPo piece](https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/democrats-look-for-another-potential-house-flip-in-ohio/2018/07/17/3a58eaf6-86ca-11e8-8f6c-46cb43e3f306_story.html?utm_term=.c5071c8cfdc2) on the OH-12 special election: > [@](#): > > Since losing the Pennsylvania race in March, Republicans have argued that Democrats would struggle to recreate Lamb’s alchemy. Few challengers, they said, would have Lamb’s veteran-made-good biography. Few would be able to navigate their primaries without being forced to the left. Few of the GOP’s candidates would run as weakly as Rick Saccone, the rumpled state legislator who counted on support for President Trump to pull him across the finish line. > > The Ohio race has challenged that thinking. With no dramatic errors by either candidate, Democrats have taken every lucky break. While O’Connor has only slightly outraised Balderson, 57, Republicans privately grumble that the Democrat beat him to the general election airwaves and built up his favorable numbers with ads about rejecting Pelosi (D-Calif.) and wanting to protect health-care coverage. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/11 "2018-08-01T13:32:12Z")
I still don’t really have much hope that O’Connor will win, and the polling has been consistently on Balderson’s side, but Republicans are worried enough that they just sent Mike Pence to Newark, and now they’ve announced that Trump will be holding a rally in Delaware County this weekend. I initially thought Delaware County was kind of a weird place for Trump to hold an event (he won it in 2016 but it shifted toward the Democrats) but that’s where Melanie Leneghan (the GOP primary loser) is from. She has not yet (AFAIK) accepted the results of the primary as legitimate, and is suing with a crazy allegation that officials in Muskingum County (where Balderson lives) literally stuffed the ballot boxes in his favor. So this could be an attempt to try to drown out her sore loser act. As of right now my guess would be something like Balderson by 5, which is big enough the GOP will strut around and claim it’s a massive victory over what all the fake news expected would be a dead heat, while ignoring what an ominous sign it is for November. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/12 "2018-08-01T15:57:28Z")
PredictIt market: [Which party will win 2018 House of Rep special election in Ohio’s 12th district?](https://www.predictit.org/Market/4254/Which-party-will-win-2018-House-of-Rep-special-election-in-Ohio's-12th-district) About 2:1 for Balderson (R). Fairly stable as well. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/13 "2018-08-01T17:40:30Z")
[Monmouth poll: not so stable.](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_OH_080118/) In the past month, Balderson(R)'s lead over O’Connor(D) among all eligible voters has gone from +10 to +1. In a low-turnout model (only the most reliable voters show up), Balderson’s lead has dropped from +15 to +5. And in the ‘Dem surge’ model, Balderson’s gone from +7 to -1. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2018, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/14 "2018-08-01T19:54:27Z")
Yeah, that Monmouth poll dropped right after I posted. O’Connor has surged by about ten cents on PredictIt in the last couple hours and seems to have settled there. It’s still 3:2 Balderson, but it is definitely tightening. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/15 "2018-08-02T11:46:35Z")
[Commentary from TPM](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/can-democrats-pull-off-one-more-big-special-election-upset-in-ohio): > [@](#): > > Both O’Connor and Balderson have proven themselves to be solid if unremarkable candidates — and that’s a big reason why Republicans privately concede a loss in this seat would be more worrisome for them than other special election results. The race essentially pits a generic Democrat against a generic Republican, as the pair of men have the pluses and minuses of political experience, with little to stand out from the average candidate. > > “Both have run pretty vanilla, basic campaigns, no major mistakes and no extraordinary strengths,” one GOP strategist with deep Ohio ties told TPM. “The fact that this race is competitive with two candidates who are basically unknown tells you all you need to know.” > > It’s not like the last big House special election Democrats won, where now-Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D-PA) military experience and near-perfect campaign combined with Republican Rick Saccone’s antagonism towards unions and lackluster efforts created a unusually good situation for Democrats. So: generic R v. generic D in a R+7 district. The generic R is still the favorite, but it’s looking to be close. I’m lovin’ it. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BlueOhio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/439d5e/32.png) [@BlueOhio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlueOhio)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/16 "2018-08-02T12:50:34Z")
“The race essentially pits a generic Democrat against a generic Republican” has to be one of the most Ohio things I’ve ever read. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2018, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/17 "2018-08-04T14:07:11Z")
Here in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, I’m privileged to be [the target of sleazy campaign ads and distribes](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21127206&postcount=31) from both sides. Added fun note: a third-party candidate, who like the Democrat is named O’Connor is reportedly trying to get on the November ballot under the Libertarian line. This must be a coincidence and not an effort to confuse voters by having two O’Connors on the ballot. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2018, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/18 "2018-08-04T20:15:54Z")
Perfect timing for moron in chief to pick a fight with Lebron first championship in 80 years James. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/19 "2018-08-07T03:43:09Z")
I thought I’d check in on the [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/Market/4254/Which-party-will-win-2018-House-of-Rep-special-election-in-Ohio's-12th-district) market on late election eve. I was surprised to find that O’Connor has the slimmest of leads. As of right this second… DEM.OH12.2018 52¢ GOP.OH12.2018 49¢ Worth watching throughout the day tomorrow and poised for big swings depending on what part of the district first reports votes. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2018, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227/20 "2018-08-07T03:44:56Z")
Troy Balderson really has an inspiring, issues-oriented [closing message](https://myfox28columbus.com/news/local/balderson-we-dont-want-someone-from-franklin-county-representing-us): “We don’t want someone from Franklin County representing us.” (Franklin County has 32% of the electorate, more than any other county. He also crowed that he “beat Delaware County” in the primary, which is another 20-some percent.) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-12-special-election-8-7/813227.md?page=2)