# Oh dear. Latest poll has Bush well up in Florida. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 29, 2004, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795 "2004-10-29T03:12:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/1 "2004-10-29T03:12:27Z")
[http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4889](http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4889) “(CPOD) Oct. 28, 2004 – George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could win the state of Florida, according to a poll by the Los Angeles Times. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbents, while 43 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.” And [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) now has my home state of Michigan a tie. Without Florida, Kerry is gonna need Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. I still say Kerry has a sporting chance, but his capmpaign still has problems. ---
**Author:** ![See-ahm-bee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/see-ahm-bee/32/7282_2.png) [@See-ahm-bee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/See-ahm-bee)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/2 "2004-10-29T03:18:56Z")
> [@rfgdxm](#): > > [http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4889](http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4889) > > “(CPOD) Oct. 28, 2004 – George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could win the state of Florida, according to a poll by the Los Angeles Times. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbents, while 43 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.” > > And [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) now has my home state of Michigan a tie. Without Florida, Kerry is gonna need Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. I still say Kerry has a sporting chance, but his capmpaign still has problems. Karl Goebbels Rove and Associates rig the Florida polls… you knew that, right? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/3 "2004-10-29T03:24:01Z")
> [@See-ahm-bee](#): > > Karl Goebbels Rove and Associates rig the Florida polls… Did you make this up or do you have a cite for this astounding claim? This IS GD after all and seems you want to jump right into the fray. -XT ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/4 "2004-10-29T03:25:43Z")
Oh, to the OP. I wouldn’t worry too much at this point. The poll numbers have been all over the board. I’ve seen Florida go from light blue, light red and back again. At this point its too close to call (despite the polls) and it could go either way. Relax and have another drink… -XT ---
**Author:** ![See-ahm-bee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/see-ahm-bee/32/7282_2.png) [@See-ahm-bee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/See-ahm-bee)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/5 "2004-10-29T03:36:38Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Did you make this up or do you have a cite for this astounding claim? This IS GD after all and seems you want to jump right into the fray. > > -XT Perhaps I misinterpret the news, but I thought it was common knowledge that the poltical consultants working for both presidential campaigns are doing all they can to manipulate poll results and how they are reported. Some polling agencies are inclined to one political bias or another, so one day the polls say one thing, the next day, they say another, because the polls are conducted differently, sometimes with ulterior motives. Then the media spins it around, and who knows what the real poll will be? We know news reports on polls tend to lead voter opinion at times, which is why the political consultants, like Rove, will do anything they can to make the polls look good, even if not accurate. Regarding direct participation by Karl Goebbels Rove, it also is common knowledge that Rove is able to keep his actions out of public scrutiny, maintaining deniability for his support for all the dirty crap his operatives do all around the country. You want to dispute that Rove is behind things like . Disenrolling/destroying regristration for democratic new voters, . Paying a telemarketing company to jam democratic party phone lines on election day, so people cannot call for assistance in getting to the polls . Telemarketing campaign deliberately misinforming people of when election day is and their polling place. . Finding ways to get favorable polls emphasized or potentially fabricated in key states? ---
**Author:** ![Terrifel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c68b51/32.png) [@Terrifel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terrifel)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/6 "2004-10-29T03:37:25Z")
Hm…Admittedly I know bug-all from statistics, but I do note from the link that this particular poll is apparently based on telephone data from a total of 510 “likely” Florida voters, which seems like kind of a small sampling to me. I don’t recall reading anything else that would indicate the state’s electorate has suddenly swung strongly in favor of Bush just recently. As a Floridian myself, I have plenty of misgivings about how the election is going to play out (mostly concerning the mechanics of the voting process), but this poll by itself doesn’t seem like the final word by a long shot. ---
**Author:** ![See-ahm-bee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/see-ahm-bee/32/7282_2.png) [@See-ahm-bee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/See-ahm-bee)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/7 "2004-10-29T03:38:12Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Oh, to the OP. I wouldn’t worry too much at this point. The poll numbers have been all over the board. I’ve seen Florida go from light blue, light red and back again. At this point its too close to call (despite the polls) and it could go either way. > > Relax and have another drink… > > -XT Kerry is going to win Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconson, and the White House! ---
**Author:** ![See-ahm-bee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/see-ahm-bee/32/7282_2.png) [@See-ahm-bee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/See-ahm-bee)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/8 "2004-10-29T03:39:31Z")
> [@Terrifel](#): > > Hm…Admittedly I know bug-all from statistics, but I do note from the link that this particular poll is apparently based on telephone data from a total of 510 “likely” Florida voters, which seems like kind of a small sampling to me. I don’t recall reading anything else that would indicate the state’s electorate has suddenly swung strongly in favor of Bush just recently. As a Floridian myself, I have plenty of misgivings about how the election is going to play out (mostly concerning the mechanics of the voting process), but this poll by itself doesn’t seem like the final word by a long shot. Thanks for the first hand info from down there… . This election is looking like it is going to the supreme court again. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/9 "2004-10-29T03:40:25Z")
The site you link is just quoting the LA Times story that ran today. Interestingly, they omit the fact that the same poll shows Kerry well ahead in Ohio. I can’t imagine a bunch of Canadians would be trying to back Bush, so it’s just curious. [http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/](http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/) (registration required) The LA Times polls doesn’t correct for party shares. That mean if their net happens to catch more Republican fish, it’s lopsided. Other polls look for a representation of voters proportional to the party registrations on the state, which may or may not be more accurate. Moreover, the LA Times pressures undecideds into picking a candidate. Such polls tend to be unreliable because undecideds really are undecided. [http://slate.com/id/2108778/](http://slate.com/id/2108778/) (no registration required) So maybe he’ll win Florida by 8 points, or maybe he won’t. The polls are like the weather in Maine. If you don’t like it, wait five minutes and it’ll change. ---
**Author:** ![tnetennba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7993a0/32.png) [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/10 "2004-10-29T03:41:52Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Oh, to the OP. I wouldn’t worry too much at this point. The poll numbers have been all over the board. I’ve seen Florida go from light blue, light red and back again. At this point its too close to call (despite the polls) and it could go either way. > > Relax and have another drink… > > -XT I’ve taken your advice. Now I think the first Florida will go to Kush and the other one will go to Berry. hic. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/11 "2004-10-29T03:43:43Z")
> [@rfgdxm](#): > > [http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4889](http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4889) > > “(CPOD) Oct. 28, 2004 – George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could win the state of Florida, according to a poll by the Los Angeles Times. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbents, while 43 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.” > > And [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) now has my home state of Michigan a tie. Without Florida, Kerry is gonna need Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. I still say Kerry has a sporting chance, but his capmpaign still has problems. I’ll take your LA Times and raise you a [**Miami Herald**](http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/jim_defede/10033111.htm) > [@](#): > > \*\*If the latest Miami Herald poll is correct, the road to the White House no longer runs exclusively through Little Havana, it now winds its way through the streets of Wynwood and Allapattah and Homestead. > > And if that’s true, President Bush is in trouble. > > \ > > If Kerry wins Miami-Dade County 56 to 43, then the likelihood of him winning Florida is very high. Here’s why: > > In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by almost 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade County. > > BIG NUMBERS > > According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. > > A margin that large in Florida’s most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state. > > Now I realize if the poll’s margin of error were to fall in the president’s favor, Kerry would beat Bush, 53 to 46 percent (instead of 56-43). But even then, because of new voters, Kerry would still walk away with 50,000 more votes than Bush. > > But here is why the Herald poll rings true… \*\* Continued at source. As for giving Kerry a “sporting chance,” quite the contrary. What I’m seeing is a panicky Bush campaign crumbling by the day. Latest blow: [\*\*Explosive Evidence](http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=206847&page=1)\*\* ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/12 "2004-10-29T04:30:30Z")
I know this would be a novel idea for Florida but let’s not determine a winner until we have all the votes, count all the votes and recheck our count if necessary. If that process takes an extra hour or a few days after the polls close, so be it. Accuracy ought to be a bit more important than speed. ---
**Author:** ![Terrifel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c68b51/32.png) [@Terrifel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terrifel)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/13 "2004-10-29T04:42:37Z")
> [@See-ahm-bee](#): > > Thanks for the first hand info from down there… . No problemo. > [@](#): > > This election is looking like it is going to the supreme court again. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if it did, yeah. Interesting times we are living in. ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/14 "2004-10-30T00:09:43Z")
[http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) According to Zogby, as of today, Bush is at 48% in Florida and Kerry is at 47%. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-dear-latest-poll-has-bush-well-up-in-florida/271795/15 "2004-10-30T00:59:39Z")
I think it’s silly to assume it’s going to turn out exatly the way it did in 2000. The likelihood is that it won’t. Polls don’t tell you everything.