# Oh god, no!!! Is Romney winning???!!! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 19, 2012, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202 "2012-10-19T06:15:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![AdanTheSomali](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/7ba0ec/32.png) [@AdanTheSomali](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AdanTheSomali)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/1 "2012-10-19T06:15:46Z")
Romney is leading 52 to 45% among likely voters WTF, how can Obama lead such a brilliant campaign until all of a sudden one debates propels Romney into a nice lead. Ye people of great political understanding, what are the chance of Romney winning? Slim or high? ---
**Author:** ![AdanTheSomali](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/7ba0ec/32.png) [@AdanTheSomali](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AdanTheSomali)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/2 "2012-10-19T06:19:01Z")
Sorry, can this be moved to the elections section? In my panic I forgot it existed ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/3 "2012-10-19T06:21:10Z")
Sure thing. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/4 "2012-10-19T06:40:41Z")
There are all manner of polls. 538 and Princeton Election Consortium average them and model election outcomes. 538 estimates that Obama will win 292-246. They peg his odds of winning at 70.4%. Intrade puts his odds at 62.2%. Princeton Electoral Consortium has been more optimistic for the Democratic incumbant this cycle. But now they have him winning 286-252. Chill. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/5 "2012-10-19T06:42:40Z")
I’d bet Obama wins. But I wouldn’t bet a lot. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/6 "2012-10-19T07:15:18Z")
You already have. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/7 "2012-10-19T09:44:58Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > 538 estimates that Obama will win 292-246. They peg his odds of winning at 70.4%. Intrade puts his odds at 62.2%. And [Betfair](http://sports.betfair.com/politics/market?id=1.21311313&origin=LHMA) has Obama at about 68%. There seems to be some convergence. (The Betfair page writes “Login to view the latest prices”, but I _think_ the data’s OK, just maybe a few minutes behind.) I noticed a sort of innumeracy when chatting with a friend. I said I was worried that Obama might lose; he looked puzzled and said “But you said he had a 68% chance.” I then tried to explain to him that 68% is a far cry from 99%. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/8 "2012-10-19T10:51:58Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I noticed a sort of innumeracy when chatting with a friend. I said I was worried that Obama might lose; he looked puzzled and said “But you said he had a 68% chance.” I then tried to explain to him that 68% is a far cry from 99%. Maybe a bit of Russian Roulette thought experiment would help your friend. Your “32% chance of Romney winning” is like two bullets in a six-shooter. Perhaps your friend confused “chance of winning” with “popular vote were election held today,” and had come to understand (correctly) that 68% of the latter figure would indeed represent a historic landslide victory for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/9 "2012-10-19T11:05:56Z")
Romney probably isn’t ahead at this point. But he’s come back from behind and it’s neck and neck. ---
**Author:** ![Koxinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/4af34b/32.png) [@Koxinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Koxinga)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/10 "2012-10-19T11:34:17Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Maybe a bit of Russian Roulette thought experiment would help your friend. Your “32% chance of Romney winning” is like two bullets in a six-shooter. > > Perhaps your friend confused “chance of winning” with “popular vote were election held today,” and had come to understand (correctly) that 68% of the latter figure would indeed represent a historic landslide victory for Obama. In advising you guys to “chill,” I think (e.g.) Measure for Measure above may be subscribing to the same fallacy. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2012, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oh-god-no-is-romney-winning/638202/11 "2012-10-19T11:58:50Z")
> [@AdanTheSomali](#): > > Romney is leading 52 to 45% among likely voters > … You’re probably referring to the Gallup Poll. Read [this](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/) and it might relieve your anxiety a bit.