Floyd was in 1999.
Looks like it’s headed towards the White House. I hope it’s not one of those terrorist hurricanes.
(gotta love a little sick humor in the morning)
Floyd wasn’t all that terrifying by the time it got near the DC area, at least, by staying-inside-and-riding-it-out standards. Out here by the Chesapeake Bay, getting in your car wasn’t a smart move, but it wasn’t gonna take the roof off your house, and wasn’t likely to throw branches through your windows.
If Isabel comes this way, it’ll bring a lot more than Floyd did. And Weather Underground still has it heading right this way.
Isabel is poised to do a Betsy. (Click “interactive tracker” on the left / then click “historical storms” and choose Betsy. That will give you an overlay.)
Well, sort of. She is in almost the same place Betsy once was, similarly ready do deal out destruction, albeit getting there from a more Westerly track.
“to”
…and actually Isabel is a HELLUVA lot more dangerous at this point…
If Isabel strikes DC it will be as a Cat 3 if not less. Simply put the waters are way colder north of Virginia and cannot support her current strength. The waters in NC and SC, though can support her.
Some links:
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LTRP.html
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/13LGLB.html
If you look at the Sea Surface temps, you will see it will encounter colder water once it starts tracking north of Virginia. This is a very good thing, because it would cause the storm to weaken significantly. The best case scenario is that it misses land completely, but I don’t honestly think it will.
Lets just hope it doesn’t hit SC/NC because the water there won’t weaken it as much.
Current predictions from MY HOUSEHOLD:
14 year old son: School Monday (and he has two reports due). Ocracoke will evacuate on Tuesday morning. We’ll have a 1/2 day of school on Tuesday and our evacuation order will be issued Wednesday morning.
10 year old son: Can we go to Wilson and see Daddy?
Me: I’ll finish all the laundry and cleaning up the yard today. Pull out the “hurricane boxes*” and finish packing them. Call my parents in Florida and tell them a)how lucky they are and b)yes, the kids and I will leave if/when the evacuation order is issued.
Monday: Get extra prescription drugs from the pharmacy (almost ran out of stuff during Dennis).
Tuesday: Secure the server room at the office and prepare the packages to mail out backup tapes (I always send one North and another South).
Wednesday: If the order is issued then it’s time to get the rental guests out (all 450 of them) and then secure the cottage (all 450 of them). Run and mail backup tapes. Pack car and get the HELL OUT.
*Hurricane boxes = the stuff that I must take when I leave. I think after all these years I have this down to a science.
I no longer take any photos with me, only the negatives. Photos that I don’t have negatives for has been scanned (hi res) and put on CD.
Tax records, kids shot & health records, animal shot & health records (some motels won’t let them stay unless you have proof of their shots), insurance info, current video of the interior and exterior of the house, and re-entry permit.
I strongly recommend anyone in a hurricane prone area have a box that contains these items ready to go.
Wish us luck!
As much as hurricane predictions have improved, and they have, I don’t think anyone from Cuba to NJ should quit watching Isabel yet. Even 10 inches of rain can force one to make some plans. Hurricane Mitch is the best example of a rain grinder that I can recall, the winds were horrific also. The human cost was staggering.
Also, purely based on watching hurricanes, slower ones seem to dart around sometimes.
So help me, if Isabel comes this way, I too will be pissed!
But at least we have enough insurance – flood insurance, wind-driven-water insurance, flying-object insurance, non-flood rising water insurance, etc., etc. – to replace our entire house and all its contents due to anything short of a direct nuclear attack. And boy oh boy oh boy do we pay for it.
But I’m still gonna be SERIOUSLY pissed!
I will not worry about Isabel hitting my area in Florida until they move the Space shuttles, If they do this I will worry. The space center was built where it is for a reason. I can’t even begin to imagine the damage Isabel will cause if she hits land at a catagory 5:eek:
Why worry? She’s pointed directly at us. No way could she go straight. Don’t worry, be happy. Smile, and you mean it. 
Eh, they’re usually right nowadays. I guess we have little to worry about.
Usually right? I dunno - we were supposed to get all kinds of rain from Henri last weekend. I think I counted 12 drops, but I might have missed a couple when I blinked.
But I am inclined to think that the mid-Atlantic states are gonna get it.
I was checking out a message board for the area where I’ll be moving in southern Maryland. Someone posted this in a thread about Isabel - it cracked me up:
Probably stolen from a comic or something, but it still made me laugh.
Uh, boy. NOAA currently predicts Isabelle to head straight up Chesapeake Bay.
We live in RTP (Technically, Durham) NC. I’m not sure exactly what to expect, as we haven’t lived here overly long. We weren’t here for Floyd, which sounds like it was awful.
A question for those of you who live in the same general area-
What, realistically, are we expecting if Isabel makes landfall in Wilmington? And what should we be doing to prepare, if anything?
It seems like people in these parts are panicking a little. Maybe they have good reason, I don’t know. We rent, as well. We definitely don’t have enough cash to go out and get renters insurance this week, and I doubt very much that we are allowed to put up plywood.
What are the chances of our townhouse taking serious damage? (We do have a lot of tall trees behind the row we live in.) Just looking for a little practical advice before we take any drastic measures.
It is probably too late for you to get any kind of additional insurance anyway jes. Renter’s insurance is very cheap and you should definately get it as soon as this storm blows over.
As far as things to do to prepare, there isn’t much you can do to prepare for a tree falling on the house. Maybe move your most important things to an internal room somewhere.
I would prepare of the power going out for awhile. Make sure you have gas for the grill so you can cook and plenty of ice. Make sure that you have some candles and a few flashlights. A radio is nice to have too so you can listen to what is going on.
And beer. Don’t forget the beer. Get a cooler with plenty of ice and stock it with lots of beer. You will thank me the day after the hurricane when it is hot as hell outside, you can’t go any where and the power is still out.
The path of the storm is critical. Both Floyd and Fran hit Wilmington, but then went in different directions. Floyd went north and flooded eastern North Carolina–I don’t think Durham got anything other than a few scattered showers. In contrast, Fran headed straight for Durham, and knocked down a lot of trees. The damage was very similar to that caused by the ice storm last winter, with the power out for extended periods of time, although I believe the ice storm did more damage than Fran. But there wasn’t much wind damage. At this point, the predicted path of Isabel would make it more like Floyd than Fran. Although there is always the possibility that the storm will trigger a tornado or two.
The projected path for Isabel has it still coming up the Chesapeake Bay (as of 11:00 PM last night). A new tracking forecast will be up at 11:00 AM today.
Personally, I’d pack up and get the hell out if this one was heading my way. I’m not about to try to ride out a hurricane, and I’d rather leave unnecessarily for a few days than to risk riding out a big one.
Of course, our house is BELOW sea level, which makes me extremely paranoid, but I think I’d feel the same no matter WHERE I lived. I’ve been through a couple of tropical storms, here and in Georgia, and those weren’t too bad, but by Og it rained! As far as tornadoes go, I’d rather ride out an earthquake than have a tornado bearing down on me. Really.
Don’t take any stupid chances if you are in the path of this thing, please. I hope it downgrades considerably. But what a storm!
Oops! A new tracking forecast went up at 5:00.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/150858W5.gif
They moved the track west a little.