Ohio recount?

[Shoeless]

@bup

How does one recount a Diebold machine with no paper trail, anyhow? :dubious:

And don’t forget, the CEO of Diebold himself guaranteed that he would deliver Ohio’s electoral vote for George Bush.

[suranyi]

@davidm

I guess that would explain it then. Do you have a cite for that?

Not precisely, though I’m still looking.

Here are two articles from the New York Times that shed some light:

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-ELN-TV-Exit-Polls.html

THE 2004 ELECTIONS: THE ELECTORATE -- THE POLLING; Survey Experts Cite...

Here’s an article a little closer to the issue from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

http://tinylink.com/?Y9LiTgHFFY

Ed

[Calliope]

@Cheesesteak

Well, let’s just first start here with the article If you go onto CNN today and look at Ohio You’ll notice that Bush took the men 53/47 and the women were 50/50.

Unless CNN is changing their exit poll data to match up with the election, we can state that his entire premise is flawed.

Well, some are arguing that CNN did indeed change their polling data. I was looking at it late into the night and it wasn’t making sense to me because Kerry was leading in CNN’s own data even after the votes were showing something different.

The top image here illustrates very much what I saw. The data has been changed.

And here are the late afternoon polls used by everyone in the media and published by Slate. Note these were published at nearly 5 pm.

I don’t know what it means, but the data did, in fact, change.

[duality72]

@davidm

Hmm. You’re correct. I wonder how he got that so wrong?

He doesn’t get it wrong, exactly, but he’s at least making something of an educated guess from what I can tell. Arg, this gets complicated, but here goes.

This seems to be the data he’s working with; it’s a snapshot of the CNN reported exit polls at 12:21 am with 1963 respondents. The finall CNN exit poll data is from 1:41 am with 2020 respondents. Problem is, it’s mathematically impossible to get from the first set of data to the second. For example, the number of men going for Kerry in the first set of data is at least .465 * .505 * 1963 = 460 (rounded down). The most number of men that could have gone for Kerry in the second set of data is .475 * .475 * 2020 = 456 (rounded up). So, despite 57 additional respondents, Kerry somehow loses 4 men.

So, what gives? You can believe CNN is complicit in the fraud being perpetrated against the American people! Or, the more likely answer I’ve read around but can’t remember where, is that the final exit polls are re-weighted to reflect the actual results, which makes sense so you can see how the demographics actually broke out.

Back to our story. It seems Palast is taking the last pre-final set of exit polls as the last real set of raw data. I’m not sure that’s sound as that data might also have been weighted for expected returns, but I am not a pollster. If it is raw data, though, he’s got a point.