# Oil Heading For $100/Barrel: Is Biofuel Competitive? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [January 6, 2011, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672 "2011-01-06T22:44:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2011, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/1 "2011-01-06T22:44:15Z")
Gasoline prices just keep rising…and now Shell is predicting $4.00/gallon gasoline by years end. My question: are biofuels competitive now, at such price levels? I recall reading that ethanol (from sugar) can be produced at a cost of about $3.70/gallon-so is it time to dump oil? ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2011, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/2 "2011-01-07T00:17:50Z")
Seems to be working in Brazil. [wiki info here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethanol_fuel_in_Brazil) ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2011, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/3 "2011-01-07T00:31:55Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I recall reading that ethanol (from sugar) can be produced at a cost of about $3.70/gallon-so is it time to dump oil? Ethanol at any price is of no use to me. ---
**Author:** ![BellRungBookShut-CandleSnuffed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bcef8e/32.png) [@BellRungBookShut-CandleSnuffed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BellRungBookShut-CandleSnuffed)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2011, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/4 "2011-01-07T01:29:49Z")
I read the first sentence and thought, gas will come down to $4 soon? Woohoo! ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2011, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/5 "2011-01-07T02:43:52Z")
This [TIME magazine article](http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1725975,00.html) (2008) says ethanol is a scam. A [Bloomberg article](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&refer=columnist_hassett&sid=aSVm3V6ipm8I) (2006) says ethanol is a scam. ---
**Author:** ![Cicero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cicero/32/3594_2.png) [@Cicero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cicero)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2011, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/6 "2011-01-07T13:22:58Z")
Biofuel is feel good but the amount of resources that would have to go into manufacturing it makes it pretty unsatisfactory- at the moment. ---
**Author:** ![LonghornDave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@LonghornDave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonghornDave)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-heading-for-100-barrel-is-biofuel-competitive/566672/7 "2011-01-07T17:17:50Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > now Shell is predicting $4.00/gallon gasoline by years end. That’s not true. John Hofmeister, former president of Shell Oil Company (U.S. subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell), predicts $5.00 gasoline by 2012. You can see his prediction [here](http://www.wusa9.com/video/default.aspx?bctid=710908505001#/Clean+Energy%3A+Fact+or+Fiction%3F+%2D+12.26.10+%2D+EWTV+Seg+1/710908505001). Of note, this prediction was made to Platts Energy Week and is a video. John Hofmeister is the founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy and author of the book “Why We Hate the Oil Companies”. As you will see in the video, he places the blame for high energy prices primarily on a dysfunctional government for the past few decades. He also doesn’t have anything good to say about the current de facto moratorium in the Gulf. He’s a pretty smart guy with a lot of interesting things to say. I don’t agree with him on everything, but he is definitely worth listening to. As far as I am aware, neither Shell, RDS, nor John Hofmeister made any predictions of $4.00 gasoline by the end of 2011. I’m guessing you read an article that had someone else make a prediction of $4.00 gasoline and the same article may have referenced John Hofmeister’s prediction, naming him former Shell president, and that may be the source of confusion. If I’m wrong on this, I would appreciate you educating me.