Okay, call it an educated guess based on analysis of available data. Those that do it well make money, those that don’t, don’t. Either way, the futures market is a benefit to society as a whole.
I like gambling because my brother used to be a card counter, and he gambled based on some information, though incomplete. A guess sounds like it’s pure luck - though educated guess is ok also. Bottom line, though, it is speculation, and on factors not necessarily directly related to the value of the commodity over time.