# Oil suddenly irrelevant. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 14, 2007, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657 "2007-10-14T06:11:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2007, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657/21 "2007-10-17T00:14:22Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] To the extent that nukes and renewables can’t fill the gap, we’d convert power plants from coal to oil because oil’s significantly cleaner to burn than coal is, not just in terms of general pollutants but in terms of CO2 emissions. [/QUOTE] My professional opinion, from having worked on coal-oil and oil-coal retrofit projects, is it’s of limited practicality on anything other than a very small scale (few number of plants). UNLESS you’re talking about building new CCGT plants and retiring Rankine coal plants. Which is possible in the scenario given in the OP. And what is “significantly” in terms of CO2 between bituminous coal and oil? Surely you’re comparing CCGT versus Rankine cycle, because I’d like to see what in terms of numbers constitutes significant if both coal and oil are going to be burned on the Rankine cycle. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2007, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657/22 "2007-10-17T01:59:00Z")
Well since few are all that excited about discussing what happens to the Arab world in a world in which oil no longer matters that much, I’ll join **Una Persson** in responding to **RTF**. First off as to the need to build new energy capacity- probably not. [Here’s](http://baltimorechronicle.com/2005/083005Korthof.shtml) one analysis using California as a test case that claims ample off-peak capacity. > [@](#): > > Here’s the math in California, which has the figures readily available, and which consumes 12% of the country’s gasoline: California uses 280 million gallons of gasoline per week. At the fleet average of 20 miles per gallon (“mpg”), that’s 5,600 million miles per week. On an average day, Californians drive 800 million miles burning fuel derived from petroleum. > > The RAV4-EV-not even the most efficient EV-gets four miles for each kilowatt-hour (“kWh”) of energy it holds. Dividing 800 million daily miles by four miles per kWh means we would need 200 million kWh to convert all miles driven in gasoline-fueled cars to miles powered by electric RAV4-EVs or other, even more efficient electric vehicles. > > In California, our installed capacity is 60,000 megawatts and off-peak unused capacity is about 30,000 megawatts for 18 hours (integrating under the curve on the state website, [caiso.com](http://caiso.com)), or about 540,000 megawatt-hours. That’s 540 million kWh of unused electric capacity per day. > > That’s more than the 200 million kWh per day it would take to convert ALL oil-fueled miles to electric-powered miles, by a substantial margin, and without building one new power plant. > > Replacing 40% of our oil energy with off-peak electric power would eliminate the need for all overseas oil imports. > Even replacing just a fraction, merely 40%, of our oil with off-peak electric power would eliminate the need for all overseas oil imports. Of course any renewables ramped up, including home wind generators, co-fired biomass, solar, etc., would be gravy. As to battery technology … the new Li-ion batteries by the likes of A123, GBT, Enerdel, Altairnano, CBAK and others are making PHEVs and full BEV for high milage fleet vehicles a soon to be cost effective reality. This is more than just incremental over NiMh. Overnight? No. It will take on the order of decades to turn over the car inventory in the US. But it is very possible that China will mainly skip ICE and go directly into a primarily grid-derived powered vehicle state, instead of buying millions and millions of ICE vehicles over the next decade or so. Not so unlikely given their large coal and lithium reserves, the fact that most of the major lithium battery manufacturers are in China, and that they want energy independence as much as we do. Between those factors and the potential for new biofuels from cellulosic feedstock and from algae in those new-fangled bioreactors attached to powerplant flues (both real works in progress) my scenerio is none too unlikely in a reasonable timescale of a couple of decades or less. And after thinking on it since I first posted I’m none too hopeful for anything but a dire outcome for the region if it occurs. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2007, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657/23 "2007-10-17T02:37:29Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Well since few are all that excited about discussing what happens to the Arab world in a world in which oil no longer matters that much… [/QUOTE] I’ll take another swipe. I have to wonder what the powers-that-be over there are thinking? Surely they must realize the oil will run out. I know we have argued on the board here on when that might happen but it WILL happen. There is a finite supply and consumption is huge and growing. Seems to me that any measures to setup your country for a post-oil economy need to be started today as such things can take years or decades to fully mature. Perhaps some countries already are. Looking at what the UAE is doing in places like Dubai they seem to be setting up the city as something more than an oil only place. They seem to be driving it as a resort destination and a major business center. I never really thought of all that in terms of mitigating a post oil economy so may be way off (just thinking out loud) but I’ll wager they fare better than a place like Iran likely will. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2007, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657/24 "2007-10-17T03:23:17Z")
The oil state powers-that-be are in general thinking what they are always thinking everywhere - if I cream enough off right now, I and mine will be fine and fuck the rest. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2007, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657/25 "2007-10-17T12:31:41Z")
Oh btw **RTF** [some](http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2007/07/toomanybrownies.html) are even concerned that we have so much excess capacity (after we’ve accounted for new investments in energy efficiency) that it threatens the uptake of new renewable generation facilities … no need for new generation at all, they fear. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/oil-suddenly-irrelevant/422657.md?page=1)