# Ok, I give up: Why do demonstrations force regime change? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 2, 2011, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ok-i-give-up-why-do-demonstrations-force-regime-change/569947 "2011-02-02T22:14:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 2\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Agnostic\_Pagan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c4cdca/32.png) [@Agnostic\_Pagan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agnostic_Pagan)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ok-i-give-up-why-do-demonstrations-force-regime-change/569947/61 "2011-02-11T05:12:10Z")
> [@Rusalka](#): > > As to the O.P., > > 1. Everyone seems to be speculating, have any social scientists addressed this question in a book or research paper? > > 2. Mubarak has been in power 30 years, why did this happen now? Wikipedia actually has a decent overview of the major sociological and political science theories behind [revolutions](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution) and [social movements](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_movement). I tend to favor the structuralist theories From the latter article: Structural strain theory proposes six factors that encourage social movement development: 1. _structural conduciveness - people come to believe their society has problems_ - **check** Egypt has had a fairly large opposition movement before this - see [Kefaya](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kefaya) and no one has ever been really happy with 30-year old state of “emergency”. 2. _structural strain - people experience deprivation_ - \*\*check \*\*- rising food prices coupled with long term unemployment 3. _growth and spread of a solution - a solution to the problems people are experiencing is proposed and spreads_ - **check** Peaceful overthrow of a neighboring regime 4. _precipitating factors - discontent usually requires a catalyst (often a specific event) to turn it into a social movement_ - **check** See previous point for Egypt. In Tunisia, it was the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi. 5. _lack of social control - the entity that is to be changed must be at least somewhat open to the change; if the social movement is quickly and powerfully repressed, it may never materialize_ - this is where the Egyptian process is at this moment - Mubarak tried to use Interior Ministry forces to crush it and failed. I think the military will support the protestors since I think they realize the economic system has failed because of the widespread political corruption. They are conscripts, not orphans - they have families and know what they are going through, and the military is not lifetime employment. They only serve for a few years, and they know what their job prospects will be when they leave. 6. _mobilization - this is the actual organizing and active component of the movement; people do what needs to be done_ - **check** - courtesy of Facebook and other social media. I think Al-Jazeera had an important affect - these are fellow Arab journalists and provide a local outlet for opposition figures - which also provide an example of strong independent media. (Yes, they are state-owned, but more in the sense of BBC and PBS - they have strong editorial freedom.) Plus the Egyptian regime pissed off the[soccer clubs](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/dave_zirin/01/31/egypt.soccer/index.html). Never a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ok-i-give-up-why-do-demonstrations-force-regime-change/569947/62 "2011-02-11T18:09:56Z")
Q.E.D. Hasta la vista, Hosny… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ok-i-give-up-why-do-demonstrations-force-regime-change/569947.md?page=3)