# Okay Folks! Election Prediction Thread! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 4, 2008, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060 "2008-11-04T15:33:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Merkwurdigliebe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/74df32/32.png) [@Merkwurdigliebe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merkwurdigliebe)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/1 "2008-11-04T15:33:27Z")
I meant to start this last night, but let’s see if we can’t get this in before the results come in. There are loads of maps to check out so use what you need. Here’s my prediction: Obama: Kerry States ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, MN, WI, IL, MI, CA, OR, WA, HI Henceforth you guys can just say Kerry States for reference. Plus the following in order of how likely I think they are to go for Obama: IA, VA, NV, NC, OH, FL, MO, IN, GA, ND and MT. Popular vote prediction: Obama +8 (53 - 44 - 2) That’s a risky pick but seeing is all I have to lose is bragging rights, I don’t mind. I feel that my picks Never been good at it, but hey, why not give it a shot? ---
**Author:** ![howye](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a9adbd/32.png) [@howye](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/howye)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/2 "2008-11-04T15:44:31Z")
In my office pool I have Obama winning with 320 electoral votes. We are doing a Price is Right style closest to the number without going over. Of course, no money is on the line, only smug satisfaction. I predict Obama gets at least the Kerry states plus OH, VA, NM, CO, NV, and NC. I would not be surprised by FL, MO, GA, and possibly IN. ---
**Author:** ![Raza](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raza/32/213_2.png) [@Raza](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raza)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/3 "2008-11-04T16:24:07Z")
I put Obama at 338 EVs without NC, which I don’t think he’ll get. He will get FL, OH, and PA. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/4 "2008-11-04T16:28:45Z")
I’ve already staked out the maximalist 406 EV for Obama prediction elsewhere, so I might as well do it here as well. (Generated by going to the realclearpolitics map and flipping all the toss-up states to Obama. Yes, including Arizona.) ---
**Author:** ![erislover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/71e660/32.png) [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/5 "2008-11-04T16:30:37Z")
I don’t have much faith in Ohio or NC, personally. Ohio screwed me last election. I’m pessimistically saying Ohio goes McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/6 "2008-11-04T16:35:00Z")
I think OH is going McCain actually, and PA worries me also (I don’t care what the polls say). FL is going Obama as well as NC and I have hope for IN. ---
**Author:** ![Slacker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6bbea6/32.png) [@Slacker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slacker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/7 "2008-11-04T16:51:33Z")
If you want to get the math right - this site will let you click on states to assign them and give you the EV numbers. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election I’ll say… **Obama 333, McCain 205**. In my dreams TX, GA, and IA flip and Obama breaks 400, but I’ll stick with 333 for my official prediction. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/8 "2008-11-04T16:58:18Z")
I predict a landslide. At least 400 electoral votes. I don’t trust the polls. The surveys are conducted in the same manner as previous elections, yet they can’t account for who is actually voting. Given the huge urgency the Obama campaign represents for the young voters who will turn out en masse, as well as the hopelessness for Republican voters who may feel there vote will just be a waste of time. And there is the reverse Bradley effect, exemplified by Denny Crane last night on Boston Legal. Very real to me. ---
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/9 "2008-11-04T16:58:18Z")
I hope I’m wrong, but I think voter suppression + historic young-voter failure + potential voting machine shenanigans + rural racism means a much closer total than the polls would indicate. Of the battlegroundish states, I think McCain: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, Georgia Obama: Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico Total EV’s: **Obama: 282 McCain: 256** …with Obama winning between 50 and 51% of the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/10 "2008-11-04T17:16:22Z")
> [@Parthol](#): > > historic young-voter failure Well, if Penn State is any indication, they’re coming out. Over [1000 students](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/over-1000-students-lined_n_140859.html) were lined up by 7am! ---
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/11 "2008-11-04T17:20:16Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Well, if Penn State is any indication, they’re coming out. Over [1000 students](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/over-1000-students-lined_n_140859.html) were lined up by 7am! I hope you’re right! Is that an unusual turnout for Penn State? (Also, an addition to my above prediction: Nevada should be in the “Obama” category.) ---
**Author:** ![atomicbadgerrace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8e7dd6/32.png) [@atomicbadgerrace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/atomicbadgerrace)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/12 "2008-11-04T17:25:25Z")
> [@Merkwurdigliebe](#): > > I meant to start this last night, but let’s see if we can’t get this in before the results come in. There are loads of maps to check out so use what you need. [Similar thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=485560) I’ll amend my predictions there to: Obama 353 McCain 185 Popular vote: 51.8% Obama, 46.7% McCain, 1.5% other Obama takes WA, OR, CA, NV, HI, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, OH, VA, NC, FL, PA, DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT McCain takes ID, UT, AZ, AK, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, WV, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC ---
**Author:** ![An\_Arky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/87869e/32.png) [@An\_Arky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/An_Arky)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/13 "2008-11-04T17:26:03Z")
Obama: Kerry States + VA, OH, IA, CO, NM, NV - 311 EV McCain: Who cares? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/14 "2008-11-04T17:28:07Z")
Obama 309 McCain 229 ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/15 "2008-11-04T17:29:02Z")
> [@Parthol](#): > > I hope you’re right! Is that an unusual turnout for Penn State? I don’t know, I just saw the video right before I posted. I have no prediction other than… LANDSLIDE!! ---
**Author:** ![Tabithina](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f04885/32.png) [@Tabithina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabithina)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/16 "2008-11-04T17:38:14Z")
I think that Obama can win MO, provided the city voters can tolerate the long lines and problems. I’m guessing that MO will be called for Obama some time after 2:00 A.M. —at the earliest— by a _razor-thin_ margin. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/17 "2008-11-04T17:38:33Z")
I posted this in another thread already: 375 Obama, 163 McCain. Popular vote 57 Obama, 41 McCain. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/18 "2008-11-04T17:50:47Z")
[A thread I started on the same thing](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=491027) but no one wanted to play. ☹ > [@](#): > > I’m betting not only on Obama winning most all the states that he’s ahead in and all those that he is just a few percentage points shy in (short of Arizona) but that one Nebraska district around Omaha and the surprise upset of Texas - so 431. Also - a bigger turnout in absolute number than ever before and maybe by percentage of elgible voters as well. Maybe more votes for Obama than ever received by any candidate before as well. ---
**Author:** ![erislover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/71e660/32.png) [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/19 "2008-11-04T17:51:57Z")
Oh, forgot to post my prediction. 325 to 213 for Obama. No predictions on the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2008, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060/20 "2008-11-04T18:04:18Z")
Obama will win nicely. The GOP appears to have thrown McCain to the wolves and given it up. Both parties do this once ina while if they see they have small chance of winning, they let a “Maverick” win the Nomination- Goldwater, McGovern, etc. Rove and co has not trotted out their usual dirty tricks, and I doubt there will be much polling fraud, as it’s not worth it unless the election will be close. (Of course, it won it for them in OH and Fla, so it does work) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/okay-folks-election-prediction-thread/471060.md?page=2)