# Older Dopers: Did You Ever Think The USSR Would Fall? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 17, 2011, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758 "2011-04-17T21:51:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/21 "2011-04-18T00:32:42Z")
> [@mutantmoose](#): > > Yugoslavia was non-aligned, not in the Soviet sphere. They began to break up when Tito died. Not really connected to the other stuff. > > Things were happening across the soviet world under Gorbachev but I don’t think there was much warning pre-Gorbachev. So it was quick in that sense. And I think I always assumed that Gorby would lose power somehow - removed, “died” whatever and some hardline lot would be in power and reverse everything. Soviet Union just seemed to be one old hardline dude followed by another. > > And I don’t think this thread is restricted to “older dopers”. I was only early 20s in '89. Makes us sound like a bunch of grumpy old timers. I meant “comparatively older”. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/22 "2011-04-18T00:32:57Z")
Yes, absolutely. But I was stupid. I dealt in Russian coins since 1968. I sold a customer a Peter the Great ruble–1704, first year–back in 1981. It was the finest I ever owned. I charged him the crazy price of $1000. He was my friend. He sold it two years ago for $25,000. Since the Russians became free and some of them make obscene money these days, their coinage has gone through the roof. I knew this would happen. But, did I put aside some for me…nada. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/23 "2011-04-18T00:34:59Z")
> [@Mr.Slant](#): > > I was still in middle school when it failed. > Given the general stupidity of mankind and what I saw on the news, I assumed that global thermonuclear war was an inevitability. > I was convinced I’d get vaporized in my sleep one night. > I assumed the USSR would live forever. The whole thing was a dumb idea, people had been miserable for decades, so the thing had already resisted common sense long enough that I figured it was invulnerable. Huh. I was fourteen when it fell, and the whole Russia-as-a-boogeyman thing never took with me or any of my friends or classmates. None of us were stunned when the USSR fell since they didn’t really feel like a superpower by the time we were old enough to be aware, but our parents and teachers sure were. I still recall my Government and Economics teacher showing up to class, shaking and saying “I guess I can’t correct you any more when you say ‘Russia’ instead of ‘USSR.’” ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/24 "2011-04-18T00:43:56Z")
Yes, I was pretty sure the USSR would fall. After the global nuclear war that destroyed us all, that is. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/25 "2011-04-18T00:57:33Z")
I was in my mid-twenties when the Soviet bloc fell. As others have already expressed, it surprised me that it happened (a) so quickly – really only about 2 years from the fall of the Berlin Wall and other satellite states in '89, to the dismantlement of the Soviet Union at the end of '91, and (b) so relatively bloodlessly. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/26 "2011-04-18T01:03:43Z")
No. The assumption was that the Soviets would always be there. The one exception was an excellent book, **Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984** by Andrei Amalrik which did predict it would fail. No one took it seriously, but there were some very accurate predictions in hindsight. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/27 "2011-04-18T01:15:10Z")
In the 70s, I was a boy in an Episcopalian Youth Group. All of us in the group, and I do mean all of us, were convinced we were going to die in a war with the Soviets, and would not live to see our old age. 9 to 14 years olds, all 2 dozen or so, all with no sense of hope at all. When I watched the USSR fall apart…I was overwhelmed. One of my brothers & I stared at the TV in utter disbelief. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/28 "2011-04-18T01:28:06Z")
Yes, I wrote a paper about this certainty in university (in 1979). In the same way, I am certain this government will collapse. In the same way the West will win these wars we are in. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Slant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c57346/32.png) [@Mr.Slant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Slant)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/29 "2011-04-18T01:34:10Z")
Paul, The final sentence of your post fascinates me. I’m curious what you mean. Could you start a thread? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/30 "2011-04-18T01:46:36Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > No. The assumption was that the Soviets would always be there. The one exception was an excellent book, **Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984** by Andrei Amalrik which did predict it would fail. Well, not the only exception. I recall coming across one of those books of predictions by famous people (fun to read to see how often they got it wrong), and I recall Andrew M. Greeley predicted the fall of the USSR without war. Presumably there were others. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/31 "2011-04-18T01:56:33Z")
I grew up in the 60s and 70s in a very religious, very conservative house, where the Soviets were on the devil’s side. Christ coming in our lifetime? Check, believed it would happen. USSR falling over? Never. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/32 "2011-04-18T02:01:32Z")
Studied economics with a Jewish Polish professor with a fairly unpronounceable name but IIRC it was close to Breski. He had been on a cattle car to Auschwitz and escaped and eventually became a PhD in the US. From an economics perspective, he was convinced it was all rotten to the core. One ancedote he shared was that under communism he was involved in harvesting crops. In the bad old days, the peasants worked until they dropped from exhaustion in the fields during harvest. In the communist era, they knocked off like any other peasant day and a certain percentage of the crops that previously would have been harvested went rotten. It was obvious to him in 1980 that it was only a matter of time before the relative inefficiency under communism would hit the tipping point and not be able to provide for everyone. Plus, government 5 year plans were pretty crappy and producing what was needed in the right quantities. He was right too ---
**Author:** ![Arrendajo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Arrendajo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arrendajo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/33 "2011-04-18T02:09:58Z")
No. Growing up in the 60’s I assumed the 2 great powers would face off forever and fight proxy wars to prove their manhood. I never believed nuclear holocaust was inevitable simply because it was suicide for either country no matter which one started it. MAD actually seemed like a safe mindset, in that as long as it was certain (and it was), no government with an interest in the future would dare push the button. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/34 "2011-04-18T02:35:16Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > No. The assumption was that the Soviets would always be there. The one exception was an excellent book, **Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984** by Andrei Amalrik which did predict it would fail. No one took it seriously, but there were some very accurate predictions in hindsight. I was going to mention this. I thought that the USSR would survive–if not forever, then certainly throughout my lifetime. The I read Amalrik’s work in about 1980, and I knew it was only a matter of time. Though I did wonder through the Andropov and Chernenko years. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/35 "2011-04-18T02:38:03Z")
I thought the Soviet Union would collapse someday. But I figured it would be a more gradual and much more violent process. Even when it became clear that there were going to be some major changes in the regime, I still thought there would be limits. I expected the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact would nominally endure for another decade or two. The relatively peaceful breakup was a complete surprise. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/36 "2011-04-18T02:41:20Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I thought the Soviet Union would collapse someday. But I figured it would be a more gradual and much more violent process. Even when it became clear that there were going to be some major changes in the regime, I still thought there would be limits. I expected the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact would nominally endure for another decade or two. The relatively peaceful breakup was a complete surprise. Ditto. In my 30s when it happened. I did believe it would fall someday, as did everyone else I knew, but neither me nor anyone else thought it would be so quick and bloodless. ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/37 "2011-04-18T03:03:26Z")
i thought it would be the US who’d fall. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/38 "2011-04-18T03:03:46Z")
I was another who thought a major war would come rather than the Soviet system falling apart on its own. I had just started second year at electronics school when the Soviets shot down that Korean airliner (September 1983) and I thought we were doomed. The idea that twenty years later I would be working alongside Russians and East Europeans was unimaginable. Let alone many of those countries joining NATO… ---
**Author:** ![Rodgers01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@Rodgers01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rodgers01)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/39 "2011-04-18T03:16:37Z")
Two ancillary questions, if I may… 1. Even after the Berlin Wall fell, did people still think the USSR would last? I was 9 at the time (and very clearly remember it), and always had the impression that that event was the writing on the wall for the Soviets, too. 2. Having seen the way the USSR fell apart so quickly, are you more willing to believe that another drastic change could happen? **Icarus** wrote “The map was considered static”, and that’s kind of how the world feels today. Oh, you expect that various third world countries will split apart or rename themselves, but I (for one) usually roll my eyes when I hear predictions that the European Union will break up, or that Quebec will secede from Canada. What think you, “older dopers”? ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2011, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758/40 "2011-04-18T03:18:51Z")
the future is yours, my child. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/older-dopers-did-you-ever-think-the-ussr-would-fall/578758.md?page=3)