# Omnibus thread for pointless campaigns by Presidential candidates who won't get the nomination **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 9, 2019, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259 "2019-04-09T03:20:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/1 "2019-04-09T03:20:23Z")
We have threads going for many candidates already, but frankly the number of entrants is growing so large that we would jam the forum if we created new threads for all of them. Therefore I propose instead one single thread to cover all the losers who are certain to drop out, either before the voting starts or after the first few contests. So here’s to [Jay Inslee](https://www.jayinslee.com/), [John Hickenlooper](https://www.hickenlooper.com/), [Wayne Messam](https://wayneforamerica.com/), [Tim Ryan](https://timryanforamerica.com/), [Eric Swalwell](https://swalwell.house.gov), [Marianne Williamson](https://www.marianne2020.com/), [Kirsten Gillibrand](https://kirstengillibrand.com/), and [John Delaney](https://www.johndelaney.com/). Meanwhile, nobody waits anxiously to hear whether [Michael Bennet](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/07/joe-biden-michael-bennet-1260177), [Terry McAuliffe](https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/04/politics/terry-mcauliffe-donors-in-waiting/index.html), [Seth Moulton](https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lissandravilla/seth-moulton-considering-2020-presidential-campaign), [Stacey Abrams](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/04/stacey-abrams-president-senate-1258814), [Steve Bullock](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/07/montana-gov-bullock-adviser-2020-1211289), and [Bill de Blasio](http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/bill-de-blasio-my-new-plan-to-climate-proof-lower-manhattan.html) will be running. And when we get through with those folks, there are others whose names are being tossed around. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/2 "2019-04-09T03:23:28Z")
Hickenlooper has a chance. Slim, but a chance. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/3 "2019-04-09T03:32:56Z")
I’m still hoping for one from every state. Then, maybe a swimsuit competition… ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/4 "2019-04-09T04:17:33Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > I’m still hoping for one from every state. Then, maybe a swimsuit competition… Oh, there you go trying to rig the system against Bernie again! :mad: ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/5 "2019-04-09T04:44:00Z")
I’m not very enthusiastic about _any_ of the front-runners so I hope one of the dark horses, perhaps Inslee or Hickenlooper, strikes gold! ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/6 "2019-04-09T05:33:30Z")
Inslee is at least saying the right things. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/7 "2019-04-09T12:46:42Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Hickenlooper has a chance. Slim, but a chance. Nope ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/8 "2019-04-09T12:48:33Z")
How did “certain not to drop out quickly” work last time? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/9 "2019-04-09T12:54:23Z")
Inslee is a solid candidate – would be top tier in a “normal” year, I think. Hick too (though he seems to have stumbled with his rhetoric). ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/10 "2019-04-09T13:15:34Z")
A large Democratic slate bothers me. I fear that the best candidates will divide the votes of the most thoughtful primary voters, giving the primary win to a more radical and less mainstream candidate. We desperately need a solution to the spoiler problem, such as ranked choice voting, but I don’t think it will happen in our lifetimes. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/11 "2019-04-09T13:29:40Z")
I understand the general idea of this thread, but I’d question your specific list. Hickenlooper or Inslee (both on your list) are both longshots at this point, but they’re more likely to get the nomination than Tulsi Gabbard (who’s not on your list). ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/12 "2019-04-09T16:12:05Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > A large Democratic slate bothers me. I fear that the best candidates will divide the votes of the most thoughtful primary voters, giving the primary win to a more radical and less mainstream candidate. > > We desperately need a solution to the spoiler problem, such as ranked choice voting, but I don’t think it will happen in our lifetimes. Keep in mind that all Democratic primaries and caucuses allocate their delegates proportionally. There are no winner take all or winner take most contests like the Republicans have which allowed Trump to steamroll with small pluralities. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/13 "2019-04-09T16:56:54Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > A large Democratic slate bothers me. I fear that the best candidates will divide the votes of the most thoughtful primary voters, giving the primary win to a more radical and less mainstream candidate. > > We desperately need a solution to the spoiler problem, such as ranked choice voting, but I don’t think it will happen in our lifetimes. In a way, caucuses are ranked choice voting - at any particular caucus site, if a voter’s candidate doesn’t get at least 15% of the vote, then he either leaves or moves to a candidate that does. > [@dalej42](#): > > Keep in mind that all Democratic primaries and caucuses allocate their delegates proportionally. There are no winner take all or winner take most contests like the Republicans have which allowed Trump to steamroll with small pluralities. At the same time, keep in mind the 15% rule - only candidates that get at least 15% of the vote in a particular district/state get that district’s/state’s (statewide) delegates. Note that if nobody gets 15%, it becomes “at least half of what the winner got.” Also note that the delegate count by state [can already be calculated](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Del.phtml). Note that only the “pledged” delegate numbers on that page matter; “unpledged” delegates cannot vote on the first ballot if their votes could affect the result. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/14 "2019-04-09T19:17:04Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > At the same time, keep in mind the 15% rule - only candidates that get at least 15% of the vote in a particular district/state get that district’s/state’s (statewide) delegates. Note that if nobody gets 15%, it becomes “at least half of what the winner got.” It’s within ten point of the winner’s result unless my [cite](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-Math.phtml) missed a change. That could make it extra exciting if a large state has the winner come under threshold since it takes a majority of delegates to get the nomination. There’s another possible deviation from proportionality given the field and scheduling of this year’s primaries. Most delegates are allocated by district not by the statewide result. IIRC it’s 3-5 delegates per congressional district. Thresholds apply. The rounding rules can produce some potential issues if they don’t average out. In a district with four delegates the rule in the cite above can produce some interesting results. With two candidates over threshold and one earning 2.51 delegates vs 1.49 based on vote percentages actually results in a 3-1 delegate tally. 2.49 vs 1.51 produces a tied of two delegates apiece for the district. That’s a tie despite about the winner having a greater than 24 point win among the qualified votes. > [@](#): > > Also note that the delegate count by state [can already be calculated](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Del.phtml). Not entirely. There are rules that assign bonus delegates to states based on scheduling. There can also be penalties for national party rule violations. Your cite mentions explicitly that they don’t include any bonuses or penalties. It’s a good start but we can’t entirely calculate delegate counts until states finish scheduling. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/15 "2019-04-09T23:13:12Z")
I don’t understand how Inslee belongs here. He was in Congress before becoming the governor of a large and economically dynamic state, giving him experience both as a chief executive and in the federal government; and he is running hard on an issue many Democrats insist is the Great Issue of Our Time. If you watch his interviews, he is a really good politician with an upbeat message. Why is he treated like a nobody, but Buttigieg is legit? ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/16 "2019-04-10T01:33:25Z")
I’m in flyover country. No candidate has been here to even do fundraising, much less hold a rally. As far as I’m concerned, Marianne Williamson is pretty much on the same level as Bernie Sanders right now. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/17 "2019-04-10T01:34:44Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I don’t understand how Inslee belongs here. He was in Congress before becoming the governor of a large and economically dynamic state, giving him experience both as a chief executive and in the federal government; and he is running hard on an issue many Democrats insist is the Great Issue of Our Time. If you watch his interviews, he is a really good politician with an upbeat message. Why is he treated like a nobody, but Buttigieg is legit? [According to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx), only 4% of people view the environment as the most important issue; climate change was not listed as a separate issue. So even among Democrats, there’s only a thin slice of voters who think that anything related to the environment is the most important thing. Supposing that Inslee got all of those voters, he still wouldn’t have any shot at the nomination. His bigger problem, though, is simply that virtually all liberal media outlets are focused on identity politics rather than policy. Buttigieg is young, gay, and married to a man. Thus we get articles such as _[Yes, it Matters That Pete Buttigieg is Gay](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/it-matters-pete-buttigieg-gay/586618/)_. Inslee is just another older white man–zzzzzzzz. No articles in national publications declaring _Yes, it Matters that Jay Inslee Cares about Climate Change_. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/18 "2019-04-10T04:13:30Z")
I’m not saying he has a great shot at winning. I just don’t think he belongs in the group of obvious also-rans. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/19 "2019-04-10T12:17:49Z")
Similarly, Gabbard is getting a lot more press than Inslee, but most of that press is about how terrible she is. No Democrats actually like her. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259/20 "2019-04-10T13:49:58Z")
Yeah, I gotta admit that both Inslee and Hickenlooper should be considered serious candidates. They’ve got the resumes and political skills to break through. But that’s really it. Technically, everyone belongs on this list right now. The two top dogs, Bernie and Biden, are pretty much there because of name recognition. Ditto Beto - who arguably should be considered a weaker candidate than either Hick or Inslee. The real answer here is…it’s early. It’s very early. We’ve got a long way to go before the real sorting begins. It helps to raise money early because it allows you to do things and try to catch attention. But in the end, it’ll come down to October of this year to January of next to find out who’s really an also-ran. There’s too much time to go to say anyone’s really in it or not. Hell, Booker’s considered a real candidate but he’s only - in the last poll RCP has - testing at 2% while Inslee is at 1%. Should Booker be dropped from the grown up table? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/omnibus-thread-for-pointless-campaigns-by-presidential-candidates-who-wont-get-the-nomination/832259.md?page=2)