Wouldn’t the effect of a full moon be felt whether you looked at it or not?
It’s even worse than that. If the orderly looks outside and doesn’t see the Moon at all (this is of course more likely when it’s not full, and much of the population couldn’t reliably find the Moon regardless of phase), the reaction would likely be “Well, I didn’t see the Moon, but it must be full, look how crazy it is!”. Or even more likely, nobody even bothers to step outside to check at all. It’s only on the occasions when the orderly looks out and does see the Moon but it’s noticably not full that there would be any negative feedback at all.
Don’t give up so easily. 
It could be the same situation. Ptolemy developed the principles of astrology in a different time as well. He even considered using conception time instead of birth time–but had no way of determining it, like we do today. However, mortality was a lot greater for early and late births, so birth date was more highly correlated with conception date. In the area where he worked, the seasonal effects of nutrition and weather were fairly constant–so, the effect on the pregnancies might have been more regular as well. This could have produced a stronger seasonal effect on infant (and subsequent adult) personality than we see today.
See?
RM Mentock, thanks for the support. I considered making the argument, though not as eloquently, that while astrology is pure hokum, the season of birth has some effect on a person’s life and at the time astrology was invented, calendars weren’t especially accurate or widespread. So at one time, astrology was useful as a means of recording times and dates of significant events (birth, death, marriage) as well as a way of conveying optimal times for planting crops, conceiving children, etc.
Back to the fray. No one has yet addressed my central question. I will assume it’s because I haven’t stated it very well, so let me try again.
Is there any discernible effect on human (or animal) behavior caused by the extra light afforded by a full moon? And further, if such an effect exists, would it not be undetectable in modern times due to the influence of ubiquitous electric lighting?
Note, I am not asking if there are any correlations between moon phases and ER admissions or police reports or mental institution admissions since these facilities are largely in well-lit metropolitan areas where extra illumination from the moon is not significant. I am asking if there are any studies on humans in undeveloped areas or animals in the wild regarding nocturnal behaviors with respect to lunar phases.