# Once Agains the Pessimists Are Wrong \[Iraq elections\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 27, 2010, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987 "2010-03-27T03:34:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/1 "2010-03-27T03:34:04Z")
[http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/03/26/iraq.election/index.html?hpt=T2](http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/03/26/iraq.election/index.html?hpt=T2) The secularists have won the Iraqi Parliamentary Elections narrowly and probably should be seated in a few months once all the wrangling is done. Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. Curiously enough there has been no mention of this in the SDMB. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/2 "2010-03-27T03:42:42Z")
We’ve heard this before. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/3 "2010-03-27T03:44:39Z")
It’s been a long, hard slog, and I can’t blame anyone for being pessimistic, especially since I’m one of those who has been so for quite a few years now. I never thought the place would go tits up as some have predicted, but I have to admit I’ve been pleasantly (and cautiously) surprised at how well things are going lately. However, I think we are far from the end of the road, and while there are some hopeful signs, I’d temper declaring victory with some caution, as the whole thing could still come crashing down…or, could suck us back in and cost us years, loads of treasure we don’t have, and, worst of all, more soldiers. As it is, I have to say that my admiration for the Iraqi people (already high) has gone up several more notches, considering that these folks went out and voted in large numbers KNOWING there was the potential for many of them to be killed or badly hurt…yet they did it any way. -XT ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/4 "2010-03-27T03:46:45Z")
Hey I know, just ignore the millions dead and exiled and the fact that the pacification meant that ethnic cleansing has worked. In other words, we are still fixing and paying for a huge mistake. And IMHO we will never pay enough. As I mentioned before, success will be granted to Iraqis and us only after we leave. Can we go now? > **[Iraq at eye level](https://foreignpolicy.com/2010/03/09/iraq-at-eye-level/)** > [@](#): > > The more time I spend in Iraq, the more it reminds me of Lebanon. There’s this discourse out there of national unity and moving beyond ethnicity – but there’s a very entrenched ethnic system. I think there’s a visceral sectarian and ethnic torment in this country. I think it’s regrettable. I think people resent it at the same time they subscribe to it. I think people want to move beyond it, but they don’t have the guarantees of **their own security** to do that in a decisive or forceful way. ---
**Author:** ![marshmallow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df705f/32.png) [@marshmallow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/marshmallow)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/5 "2010-03-27T03:51:00Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. Sweet. Does that mean the U.S. will now withdraw from the country and hand over their bases to Iraqi forces? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/6 "2010-03-27T03:53:08Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. But the next six months will be critical. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/7 "2010-03-27T03:53:53Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > As it is, I have to say that my admiration for the Iraqi people (already high) has gone up several more notches, considering that these folks went out and voted in large numbers KNOWING there was the potential for many of them to be killed or badly hurt…yet they did it any way. > > -XT Well, let me tell you that same thing happened in EL Salvador, only to be interpreted in the USA as the people being against the rebels, later the triumph of those rebels at the ballot box showed that was not wholly accurate. In Iraq it is not that they are voting against Al-qaida (Al-qaida hates everyone and Iraqis do not need propaganda to find that out), what I think it is happening is that they really want to see the USA out and if this was one of the items that even we told them they need to do to make it happen, then by golly they will vote. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/8 "2010-03-27T03:54:58Z")
> [@marshmallow](#): > > Sweet. Does that mean the U.S. will now withdraw from the country and hand over their bases to Iraqi forces? We didn’t after World War II or the Korean War. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/9 "2010-03-27T04:00:31Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > We didn’t after World War II or the Korean War. As even _Foreign Policy_ reported, Iraq will remain a failed state in part thanks to having a foreign power that still controls the security and influences the politics of the invaded place. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/10 "2010-03-27T04:02:38Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > We didn’t after World War II or the Korean War. The United States didn’t spend all that time occupying Germany, you realize. The United States isn’t providing South Korea with security against its own citizens. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/11 "2010-03-27T04:03:14Z")
[QUOTE=GIGObuster] Well, let me tell you that same thing happened in EL Salvador, only to be interpreted in the USA as the people being against the rebels, later the triumph of those rebels at the ballot box showed that was not wholly accurate. [/QUOTE] Um…ok. Napoleon invaded Russia too, which was, you know, bad. Do you expect that the US will re-invade Iraq sometime soon? > [@](#): > > In Iraq it is not that they are voting against Al-qaida (Al-qaida hates everyone and Iraqis do not need propaganda to find that out), what I think it is happening is that they really want to see the USA out and if this was one of the items that even we told them they need to do to make it happen, then by golly they will vote. Did I mention AQ? I think you are filtering your views through your own prejudices…and certainly this has little to do with my own post or views. Did I say anything about this being a vote for America? This has nothing to do with either American OR AQ, and was purely an Iraqi matter. -XT ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/12 "2010-03-27T04:12:57Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Um…ok. Napoleon invaded Russia too, which was, you know, bad. Do you expect that the US will re-invade Iraq sometime soon? I thought the follow up would make it clear that it was just an “I’m just saying” many, like our OP will just misrepresent what IMHO is taking place. > [@xtisme](#): > > Did I mention AQ? I think you are filtering your views through your own prejudices…and certainly this has little to do with my own post or views. Did I say anything about this being a vote for America? This has nothing to do with either American OR AQ, and was purely an Iraqi matter. > > -XT IMHO for many Iraqis it was a vote against America as I think I see it on the Foreign Policy article, but yeah, I do prefer this better than them grabbing arms. Sorry if I misinterpreted you intention. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/13 "2010-03-27T04:22:43Z")
[QUOTE=GIGObuster] I thought the follow up would make it clear that it was just an “I’m just saying” many, like our OP will just misrepresent what IMHO is taking place. [/QUOTE] Why quote me, though? 🙂 > [@](#): > > IMHO for many Iraqis it was a vote against America, but yeah, I do prefer this better than them grabbing arms. Sorry if I misinterpreted you intention. No worries. I’m sure there are plenty of Iraqi’s who don’t like the US and would be happy to see us get the hell out of there, but I don’t believe that they were voting for (or against) either AQ or the US in this election. That’s a very American-centric view point (even the AQ part), and I think in this case it’s not correct. What the Iraqi’s are voting for, IMHO, is to continue to test the waters to see if they WANT this whole voting thingy, or if they want to go back to the thuggery of the past. I’d say that, based on both the turn out AND on what that turn out actually means (considering the risks), that they would rather have the voting thingy, by and large, and perhaps not the thuggery. This has little (or nothing) to do with the US, and more to do with the Iraqi’s finding their own way…and a way that works for them, as a people (and partly to do with the Iraqi’s, perhaps, SEEING themselves once again as a people). I’ve followed a number of blogs from Iraqi’s and read quite a bit about this, and I think that we, here in the US (and in Europe) tend to try and see everything in terms of ourselves, even from a negative viewpoint. I don’t have the link, but I remember one Iraqi blogger saying (basically) that this has nothing to do with American, and wishing we’d STFU and stop focusing on the bombings and such, and consider that they are big kids and not children that have to be lead by the hand by either the US or Europe. He said it more eloquently, of course, but it struck me that we DO tend to focus on stuff like this purely in terms of the reflection of ourselves and our own preconceptions. -XT ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/14 "2010-03-27T04:28:14Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Why quote me, though? 🙂 > > No worries. I’m sure there are plenty of Iraqi’s who don’t like the US and would be happy to see us get the hell out of there, but I don’t believe that they were voting for (or against) either AQ or the US in this election. That’s a very American-centric view point (even the AQ part), and I think in this case it’s not correct. What the Iraqi’s are voting for, IMHO, is to continue to test the waters to see if they WANT this whole voting thingy, or if they want to go back to the thuggery of the past. I’d say that, based on both the turn out AND on what that turn out actually means (considering the risks), that they would rather have the voting thingy, by and large, and perhaps not the thuggery. This has little (or nothing) to do with the US, and more to do with the Iraqi’s finding their own way…and a way that works for them, as a people (and partly to do with the Iraqi’s, perhaps, SEEING themselves once again as a people). > > I’ve followed a number of blogs from Iraqi’s and read quite a bit about this, and I think that we, here in the US (and in Europe) tend to try and see everything in terms of ourselves, even from a negative viewpoint. I don’t have the link, but I remember one Iraqi blogger saying (basically) that this has nothing to do with American, and wishing we’d STFU and stop focusing on the bombings and such, and consider that they are big kids and not children that have to be lead by the hand by either the US or Europe. He said it more eloquently, of course, but it struck me that we DO tend to focus on stuff like this purely in terms of the reflection of ourselves and our own preconceptions. > > -XT That is what I think so too, but this is Curtis LeMay’s thread, I guess I’m not so optimistic about what he sees in Iraq. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/15 "2010-03-27T04:30:04Z")
Yeah…my own optimism, such as it is, is definitely of the cautious, tempered variety. It’s been a lot of years, a lot of death, and a lot of money, and I’m always aware that the light at the end of the tunnel COULD be a train coming from the other direction… -XT ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/16 "2010-03-27T04:44:09Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > [http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/03/26/iraq.election/index.html?hpt=T2](http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/03/26/iraq.election/index.html?hpt=T2) > > The secularists have won the Iraqi Parliamentary Elections narrowly and probably should be seated in a few months once all the wrangling is done. Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. Curiously enough there has been no mention of this in the SDMB. :dubious: Is this an attempt to justify the invasion of Iraq? It didn’t work. And I think it’s cute when people who support the invasion of Iraq pretend to be concerned about its stability. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/17 "2010-03-27T04:54:49Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. So when can I expect my victory dividend? It’s not in the mail is it? We’re never even going to recoup the trillion dollars we threw away on this boondoggle, are we? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/18 "2010-03-27T05:04:59Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. They won’t be free until they can tell America to go away and make it stick. And at any rate, so what? The dead remain dead. The tortured remain tortured. The misery and destruction we caused won’t be erased from history. And the people responsible will never be punished. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/19 "2010-03-27T05:16:07Z")
[QUOTE=Der Trihs] They won’t be free until they can tell America to go away and make it stick. And at any rate, so what? The dead remain dead. The tortured remain tortured. The misery and destruction we caused won’t be erased from history. And the people responsible will never be punished. [/QUOTE] Well, they did hang Saddam and quite a few of his fellows, and quite a few of the former government, as well as a large number of foreign insurgents have joined those ranks of dead you talk about, which is punishment by most definitions…but, oh, wait…you probably are trying to claim that the only people responsible are American’s (or maybe a few Brits thrown in as well?), right? Or were you speaking hyperbolically again, ehe? It’s hard to tell with you… I know you believe this, but I find it hard to credit that if the Iraqi’s formally asked us to leave today that Obama and the current Congress wouldn’t do so as rapidly as humanly possible. Of course, the Iraqi’s aren’t really asking us to leave, at least not any faster than we currently are doing so (last count we were below 100k troops in the country and continuing to drop…this is one campaign promise that I’m positive Obama will make, and I for one am glad of it). -XT ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2010, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/20 "2010-03-27T05:19:20Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Well, they did hang Saddam and quite a few of his fellows, and quite a few of the former government, as well as a large number of foreign insurgents have joined those ranks of dead you talk about, which is punishment by most definitions…but, oh, wait…you probably are trying to claim that the only people responsible are American’s (or maybe a few Brits thrown in as well?), right? Don’t be ridiculous; Saddam didn’t invade and devastate Iraq, we did. He did much less damage than we. > [@xtisme](#): > > I know you believe this, but I find it hard to credit that if the Iraqi’s formally asked us to leave today that Obama and the current Congress wouldn’t do so as rapidly as humanly possible. I find it more likely that if that happened that we’d find some excuse for removing them. Can’t let the serfs get uppity, after all. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987.md?page=2)