# Once Agains the Pessimists Are Wrong \[Iraq elections\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 27, 2010, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987 "2010-03-27T03:34:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2010, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/41 "2010-03-28T21:31:32Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > [Allawi's coalition wins most seats in Iraq vote - CNN.com](http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/03/26/iraq.election/index.html?hpt=T2) > > The secularists have won the Iraqi Parliamentary Elections narrowly and probably should be seated in a few months once all the wrangling is done. Iraq as I’ve said many times is on the road to lasting stability and freedom. Curiously enough there has been no mention of this in the SDMB. :dubious: There’s actually little change in this election from previous elections. In previous elections the main Shiite groups\* ran on a combined ticket and picked up half the vote. They ran on a split ticket this time and picked up half the vote. They only need to pick up four seats from the independents to have an overall majority. But they need a two-thirds majority to seat a Prime Minister and for this they need an alliance with the Kurds. Or Allawi, who only picked up 11 extra seats compared to last time, does, _but he’d also have to pick up every single independent group as well_. But Allawi’s coalition is half-ish Sunni and the Sunnis and the Kurds are ready to go to war with each other over oil-rich Kirkuk and its surrounding region. (Imagine people prepared to go to war over _oil!_ They’ll fight over anything, those Arabs.) So it’s much easier for the Shiites, who have no real dog in the Kirkuk fight, to ally with the Kurds than a half-Sunni faction, as has already proved the case in the previous two elections. However Maliki and the other Shiite faction don’t get along. Maliki is only in his job because Mookie Al-Sadr, peace be upon him, demanded the previous head of Maliki’s party, Jafaari, resign as a condition of Mookie’s support as leader of the overall Shiite alliance. Something similar will probably happen this time. According to the Arab press both factions are currently in Tehran working out a new alliance. \*The main Shiite groups that won the 2005 and 2007 elections and went on to run the government with the Kurds were all formed into a single ticket by the Iranian Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani and are: The Al-Dawa (Islamic Mission) party. This is Maliki’s party. The Dawa party have a fine democratic tradition of car bombings, airplane hijackings and blowing up buildings, most notably the US Embassy in Kuwait in 1983. Saddam’s regime for some reason called them an Iranian-backed terrorist group, probably due to all the bombings they carried out in Iraq. They operated from Iranian territory where Maliki spent most of his time apart from a few years in the Dawa Damascus office helping the forerunners of Hezbollah start their operations during the Lebanese civil war. The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Now called the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, having got their Islamic revolution in Iraq. These guys fought for Iran against Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war, their Badr military wing was trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and lots of its current members, now officers in the Iraqi security forces, were Iranian Revolutionary Guard members and still receive pensions from the IRG. Here’s what Donald Rumsfeld had to say about these guys back when we invaded : Asked more about the Badr Corps, Rumsfeld said there are reports of numbers in the hundreds operating in Iraq and more on the other side of the border. He described the corps as “the military wing of the Supreme Council on Islamic Revolution in Iraq” and said it is “trained, equipped and directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard.” As yet, he said, the corps has not done anything that would be perceived by the coalition as hostile. But “the entrance into Iraq by military forces, intelligence personnel or proxies not under the direct operational control of [U.S. Central Command Commander] General [Tommy] Franks will be taken as a potential threat to coalition forces,” he said. Rumsfeld said the coalition would hold the Iranian government responsible for the corps’ actions, and armed Badr corps members found in Iraq “will have to be treated as combatants.” [http://www.usembassy-israel.org.il/publish/press/2003/march/032901.html](http://www.usembassy-israel.org.il/publish/press/2003/march/032901.html) And the third group, who need no introduction, are the Sadrists, peace be upon them. Mookie’s people are currently allied with the Supreme Islamic dudes, that’s the second faction in the former single coalition. But as you can see it’s wrong to claim Maliki is secular although we did until an actual secular guy won more seats than him. Funny that. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2010, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/42 "2010-03-30T13:11:58Z")
Yeah! [It’s another pony](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/03/29/91278/iraqi-commission-moves-to-disqualify.html#ixzz0jb1kv4gU)for the friends of America’s Torture President: > [@](#): > > Iraqi commission moves to disqualify winning candidates > > Six winning candidates in Iraq’s parliamentary elections will be stripped of their votes and lose their seats — which would cost secular politician Ayad Allawi’s bloc its narrow victory — if a federal court upholds a broad purge of candidates who are suspected of past involvement with the late dictator Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath Party, Iraqi officials said Monday. > … > De-Baathification is overseen by Ahmad Chalabi, the Shiite Muslim and former U.S.-allied Iraqi exile leader who’s now friendlier with Iran, and Ali Faisal al Lami, who spent a year in a U.S.-run prison before he was released without charges in August 2009. Another trillion or two, and we’ll have a proper little satellite of Iran over there. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2010, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/43 "2010-03-30T13:45:48Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Another trillion or two, and we’ll have a proper little satellite of Iran over there. But, but PEACE was supposed to spill **outward** from this bastion of democracy!! What is all that stuff spilling inward? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2010, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/44 "2010-03-30T13:49:17Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > But, but PEACE was supposed to spill **outward** from this bastion of democracy!! Blood, democracy; what matters is that it spills, right? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2010, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/45 "2010-03-31T19:21:19Z")
[Robert Dreyfuss writes in _The Nation:_](http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/546302/tehran_s_coup_in_iraq) > [@](#): > > **Tehran’s Coup in Iraq?** > > posted by Robert Dreyfuss on 03/28/2010 @ 9:47pm > Iran is losing no time in assembling a pro-Tehran government in Iraq, and in so doing Tehran may push the Sunni minority in Iraq into violent rebellion. Already, there are reports from Iraq – from Iraqi political insiders – that former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi who led a nationalist, anti-Iranian coalition of secular Sunni and Shiite voters, may opt to boycott the upcoming new national assembly if he isn’t given the right to form a government. > > “We expect that there will be calls for a boycott of the parliament and for civil disobedience,” according to Aiham Alsammarae, an ally of Allawi’s. A violent reaction by Allawi’s supporters can’t be ruled out, he said, from voters who demand that Allawi be given the first crack at putting together a government. In the March 7 election, Allawi’s Iraqi Nationalist Movement won 91 seats, edging out the State of Law party of Prime Minister Maliki, who won 89 seats. > > But top Iraqi politicians representing Shiite sectarian politicians and Kurdish separatists filed dutifully to Iran yesterday for meetings on the formation of a new Iraqi government despite Allawi’s win. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2010, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/46 "2010-04-01T02:38:46Z")
[The _New York Times_ reports:](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/world/middleeast/30iraq.html) > [@](#): > > BAGHDAD — A government commission sought Monday to disqualify six people who had won seats in Iraq’s parliamentary election and 46 other candidates because of what it called their ties to the banned Baath Party. > > The disqualification effort, by Iraq’s Accountability and Justice Commission, could prove critical to the election’s outcome because the political alliance headed by Ayad Allawi, the country’s former interim prime minister, won only two seats more than Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s coalition in the March 7 contest. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2010, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/47 "2010-04-01T03:03:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [The _New York Times_ reports:](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/world/middleeast/30iraq.html) McClatchy reported that Monday. See post 42. ---
**Author:** ![Dick\_Dastardly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@Dick\_Dastardly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dick_Dastardly)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2010, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/48 "2010-04-02T14:37:21Z")
The very latest in the Arab press is that Allawi wants to join the discussions about forming a government in Iran and that the Iranians want him to become part of a national unity government. And that Mookie Al-Sadr, peace be upon him, is going to hold a nationwide referendum this weekend to choose Iraq’s next pm, or at least choose who the Sadrist bloc in parliament should support, with a list of half a dozen candidates. But this is just shadow-boxing before the horse-trading starts and once they do get down to actual negotiations they could go on for months. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2010, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/49 "2010-04-03T17:12:28Z")
[Men in Iraqi army uniforms kill 24 in Sunni area](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100403/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq) > [@](#): > > Gunmen in Iraqi military uniforms raided a village outside Baghdad and killed at least 24 people in an execution-style attack, apparently targeting a Sunni group that revolted against al-Qaida and helped turn the tide of the Iraq war, authorities said Saturday. > > The attack late Friday comes amid increasing concerns that insurgents will take advantage of Iraq’s political turmoil to further destabilize the country, nearly a month after parliamentary elections failed to give any candidate a decisive win. Many fear a drawn-out political debate could spill over into violence and complicate American efforts to speed up troop withdrawals in the coming months. [Iraq election tangle stokes fears of new violence](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100403/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq_sunni_gamble) > [@](#): > > For the first time since the 2003 overthrow of their patron, Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s Sunni Arabs are on the winning side. But the triumph may be short-lived. > > In the parliamentary election a month ago, Sunni voters took a leap of faith and threw their support behind Iraqiya, a coalition led by a secular Shiite preaching nonsectarianism. Iraqiya emerged the narrow winner, with 91 seats to the 89 won by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bloc. > > Minority Sunnis voting for a bloc led by a member of the Shiite majority — despite deep and often violent animosities, might have been expected to lay a solid foundation for reconciliation, something the U.S. has worked hard to bring about but with little success. > > Instead, there are fears it could be the prelude to a long spell of political instability and even renewed violence. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2010, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/50 "2010-04-04T12:15:22Z")
[Baghdad suicide blasts target embassies; 32 dead](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100404/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq) > [@](#): > > Suicide attackers detonated car bombs near three embassies in Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least 32 people and wounding more than 100, authorities said. > > The attacks outside the German, Egyptian and Iranian embassies deepened fears that insurgents will seize on the political turmoil after last month’s parliamentary elections to sow further instability. > > The blasts went off within minutes of each other, said Maj. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi, a spokesman for the city’s operations command center. Where are the optimists to tell us that this is just a “rough patch” and that our trillion dollar investment will soon be returned, with interest? The seem silent as the grave this Easter morning. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2010, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/51 "2010-04-04T12:33:01Z")
But we are turning the corner in Iraq! ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2010, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/52 "2010-04-04T12:41:20Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > But we are turning the corner in Iraq! Of course, the problem is that when you are always turning the corner, that means you are just going in circles… ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/53 "2010-04-05T14:09:33Z")
Having spend time in Iraq, both several years ago and recently, which most here can’t claim I’d guess, they clearly have “turned the corner” and things are much better. And no, you won’t read that here that on this site, because it’s not popular that either a Republican administration, or the U. S. military has done something good. But virtually all people and all organizations have a political slant. As had been discussed ad nauseam here, this board slants left. We’ve all learned to deal with that. What I don’t think gets factored in enough (here and elsewhere) is what the cost in terms of misery, torture and death would be if the Hussein regime, both Saddam and is son’s continued to be in power for the last seven years, and for the foreseeable future. Both in terms of destabilizing the region, and in the brutal treatment of his people. Even the most casual observer should acknowledge that things are turning out better than most predicted, and that the lasting effect of the war is looking to be a positive one. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/54 "2010-04-05T16:40:57Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > What I don’t think gets factored in enough (here and elsewhere) is what the cost in terms of misery, torture and death would be if the Hussein regime, both Saddam and is son’s continued to be in power for the last seven years, and for the foreseeable future. Both in terms of destabilizing the region, and in the brutal treatment of his people. Point the first: that cost is unknowable, and there for not meaningfully factorable. Point the second: that cost, whatever it would have been, would not have been the moral responsibility of the United States. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/55 "2010-04-05T17:26:53Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > What I don’t think gets factored in enough (here and elsewhere) is what the cost in terms of misery, torture and death would be if the Hussein regime, both Saddam and is son’s continued to be in power for the last seven years… Ah, the war seen as a welfare program for poor downtrodden Iraqis. I don’t suppose you virtuous types could see fit to cutting me, and the rest of the country, a check for your expensive, socialistic do-goodery? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/56 "2010-04-05T17:43:58Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > Having spend time in Iraq, both several years ago and recently, which most here can’t claim I’d guess, they clearly have “turned the corner” and things are much better. And no, you won’t read that here that on this site, because it’s not popular that either a Republican administration, or the U. S. military has done something good. But virtually all people and all organizations have a political slant. As had been discussed ad nauseam here, this board slants left. We’ve all learned to deal with that. > > What I don’t think gets factored in enough (here and elsewhere) is what the cost in terms of misery, torture and death would be if the Hussein regime, both Saddam and is son’s continued to be in power for the last seven years, and for the foreseeable future. Both in terms of destabilizing the region, and in the brutal treatment of his people. > > Even the most casual observer should acknowledge that things are turning out better than most predicted, and that the lasting effect of the war is looking to be a positive one. [http://afamilyinbaghdad.blogspot.com/](http://afamilyinbaghdad.blogspot.com/) Forget casual observer, here is an educated Iraqi woman telling how she sees it. They have been taken over by an outside power. When we go into a country, I try to get 3 blogs from people living in the country to see how they see things. I have been following The Family in Baghdad, blog since we went in. There is a lot of it available in her blog. I think she would say “Thanks for nothing”.You are buying the viewpoint of the people who invaded a country without cause. We have to find a way to justify the horror of what we did. It fails miserably. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/57 "2010-04-05T17:56:54Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > What I don’t think gets factored in enough (here and elsewhere) is what the cost in terms of misery, torture and death would be if the Hussein regime, both Saddam and is son’s continued to be in power for the last seven years, and for the foreseeable future. Both in terms of destabilizing the region, and in the brutal treatment of his people. I’ll go a step further and point out that whenever his regime ended, whether it was with his death, or his sons, or some other thing, that also would have been unpleasant. But that said, _come on_. Do you think that over the last seven years, he would have killed a couple hundred thousand people, displaced several million, destroyed much of the country’s infrastructure and caused a widespread sectarian conflict? Because I don’t think that was in the cards. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/58 "2010-04-05T19:01:02Z")
> [@Squink](#): > > Ah, the war seen as a welfare program for poor downtrodden Iraqis. > I don’t suppose you virtuous types could see fit to cutting me, and the rest of the country, a check for your expensive, socialistic do-goodery? I think you just cut yourself in for some at my expense, but health care is the subject of 30 other debates, not this one. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/59 "2010-04-05T19:04:17Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > I think you just cut yourself in for some at my expense… So we’re even? ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2010, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987/60 "2010-04-05T20:40:34Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > So we’re even? Nope, **spifflog’s** got to resurrect all the dead, punish the torturers and restore America’s good name internationally for there to be any real equivalency. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/once-agains-the-pessimists-are-wrong-iraq-elections/533987.md?page=4)