# One China or two? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 3, 2015, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321 "2015-10-03T00:43:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/21 "2015-10-04T04:18:49Z")
My answer is that the U.S. is totally onside with an independent Taiwan while trying not to be overly provocative to China. They sell Taiwan weaponry, it’s hardly an argument against their strong relationship because the U.S. won’t sell every possible weapon. They don’t want Taiwan to rock the boat but the U.S. has committed to defend their independence. ---
**Author:** ![Futurist110](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a88e4f/32.png) [@Futurist110](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futurist110)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2015, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/22 "2015-10-04T23:23:04Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The US permanently lost any chance for that when it invaded Canada in 1812-13, just as China did when it invaded Taiwan in 1947-49. Permanently, you say? 😉 After all, I would think that the creation of a North American Union would be a de facto U.S. annexation of Canada. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/23 "2015-10-05T04:27:13Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > No matter who wins the elections the status quo will continue, its just a difference over one side thinking they should eventually unify and one side wanting to maintain the current status forever. It’s not that simple. “Status quo” has a lot of flexibility and latitude. The “status quo” under Ma Ying Jeou has been one of steadily, gradually creeping towards unification; the “status quo” likely to be had with a President Tsai is one of subtle move away from unification and towards greater and greater political distance from China. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/24 "2015-10-05T05:52:18Z")
It doesn’t matter, they can distance themselves politically all they want and it makes no difference. Taiwan can choose the time of unification by playing along with mainland China but eventually it will happen. Just look at a map and then realise Taiwan is only 23 million people vs the mainland’s 1.4 billion people. And then consider the history of Taiwan, as the sole holding out province from a successful revolution. Even if the Communist party loses control of China, the overwhelming majority of mainlanders will continue to push for re-unification. It might take another 50 years or more, but it will happen. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2015, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/25 "2015-10-05T17:03:35Z")
[QUOTE=coremelt] It doesn’t matter, they can distance themselves politically all they want and it makes no difference. Taiwan can choose the time of unification by playing along with mainland China but eventually it will happen. Just look at a map and then realise Taiwan is only 23 million people vs the mainland’s 1.4 billion people. And then consider the history of Taiwan, as the sole holding out province from a successful revolution. [/QUOTE] Or you could think of them as the last bastion of the legitimate government of China. Both are accurate. Personally, I think of them as an independent nation state in their own right. There is no over riding need for China to claim Taiwan at this late date except the communist government (and perhaps their own nationalists) want it. The people of Taiwan overwhelming do NOT want unification with China on the CCP’s terms, and it’s hard to blame them considering the problems and issues the people of China get from the CCP. I find it ironic that a large percentage of Chinese rich enough to [bolt from China](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcORDNGqsMQ) (warning, YouTube video) that don’t come to the US go to Taiwan instead to get away from the communists, even today in this supposed Chinese golden age. > [@](#): > > Even if the Communist party loses control of China, the overwhelming majority of mainlanders will continue to push for re-unification. It might take another 50 years or more, but it will happen. What do you base this on? Today ‘the overwhelming majority of mainlanders’ DON’T push for reunification with Taiwan as far as I know. Do you have a cite showing otherwise?? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/26 "2015-10-06T02:27:38Z")
> [@XT](#): > > What do you base this on? Today ‘the overwhelming majority of mainlanders’ DON’T push for reunification with Taiwan as far as I know. Do you have a cite showing otherwise?? [http://tofflerann.com/2006/10/18/chinese-attitude-toward-japan-taiwan/](http://tofflerann.com/2006/10/18/chinese-attitude-toward-japan-taiwan/) Yes its anecdotal but it matches my own experience. Finding an independent survey on the subject is fairly unlikely I would think so anecdotes are all we have. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/27 "2015-10-06T02:47:36Z")
It’s complicated. Taiwan has de facto independence and no one (at this time) wants to see what would happen if a claim was made for de jeur (sp?) independence. I’m in the minority but I do believe Taiwan has the bomb or materials that could be made into a bomb in about 5 minutes. The US would not categorically defend Taiwan. That ended with the Shanghai Communique. In fact, it is far from certain that the US would want to get into a shooting match with China. So there is a lot of weasel room in all US statements because we certainly don’t want to be painted in a corner. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/28 "2015-10-06T03:11:17Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > [http://tofflerann.com/2006/10/18/chinese-attitude-toward-japan-taiwan/](http://tofflerann.com/2006/10/18/chinese-attitude-toward-japan-taiwan/) > > Yes its anecdotal but it matches my own experience. Finding an independent survey on the subject is fairly unlikely I would think so anecdotes are all we have. Well, I’m not sure what you are pointing out with this article. It seems to be saying that mainlanders don’t care as long as the status quo is maintained, which was kind of what I was saying. From your article: > [@](#): > > Let’s just hope this situation can all be managed smoothly without daft action on anyone’s part: Mainlanders can remain in naive nationalistc bliss and Taiwan can remain (mostly) independent. I did find this part amusing: > [@](#): > > Either it would become painfully obvious to all Mainlanders the government had been lying to them for years and would seriously destabilize the government or China would move very quickly to reassert its authority over Taiwan to prevent western Chinese provinces from making moves similar to Taiwan’s. 😛 As if most Chinese don’t know their government is lying to them. That’s hilarious…they KNOW the government lies to them with nearly every thing they say. Hell, they have elaborate codes they use on their own (internal due to censorship) social media to discuss the lies. [QUOTE=China Guy] The US would not categorically defend Taiwan. That ended with the Shanghai Communique. In fact, it is far from certain that the US would want to get into a shooting match with China. So there is a lot of weasel room in all US statements because we certainly don’t want to be painted in a corner. [/QUOTE] I disagree that the US would stand by and do nothing. I think that US policy is one of intentional vagueness, so that we can basically have our cake and eat it too. But I don’t believe a US president could survive in office if s/he turned their back on Taiwan if China attempted to invade and take the place over by force, especially if the Chinese started the conflict. Let’s both hope, however, that we never need to find out. As it is, I think China is seriously playing chicken in the region, and my biggest fear is they make a serious miscalculation and it brings one or more powers into conflict, which would certainly draw us in as well. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2015, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/29 "2015-10-06T03:16:14Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > It’s complicated. Taiwan has de facto independence and no one (at this time) wants to see what would happen if a claim was made for de jeur (sp?) independence. > > I’m in the minority but I do believe Taiwan has the bomb or materials that could be made into a bomb in about 5 minutes. There was a Taiwanese nuclear-weapons program that was stopped under US pressure in the 1980s. ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/30 "2015-10-09T03:33:57Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Flights between PRC and ROC are counted as domestic flights, not international ones. Maybe as far as operations are concerned, but flights at all airports I’ve been to in China lump Taiwan/Macau/HongKong into the international areas. Cautiously, though, the signs (at least, the English versions) do mention International _plus_ the other destinations, strongly implying that they’re not purely international. Customs and immigration is the same as international, though, so it’s definitely not truly domestic as a user. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2015, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321/31 "2015-10-09T05:47:30Z")
> [@XT](#): > > As if most Chinese don’t know their government is lying to them. That’s hilarious…they KNOW the government lies to them with nearly every thing they say. Hell, they have elaborate codes they use on their own (internal due to censorship) social media to discuss the lies. Most dictatorships don’t care if the people know they’re being lied to. What’s important is making sure they don’t know what the truth is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-china-or-two/733321.md?page=1)