# One Month Until Iowa: Bragging Rights Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 1, 2016, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903 "2016-01-01T15:21:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/41 "2016-01-15T02:33:28Z")
Update for “average Doper prediction”: Mentions Cruz 17 Trump 17 Rubio 16 Bush 12 Carson 11 Hi/Lo Cruz 41/15 Trump 35/18 Rubio 25/8 Bush 21/5 Carson 15/3 Mean % Cruz 31.3% Trump 25.9% Rubio 14.8% Bush 8.5% Carson 8.5% Median % Cruz 34% Trump 26% Rubio 13% Bush 6% Carson 6% (Note: Same caveats as last time) ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2016, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/42 "2016-01-15T21:32:00Z")
Cruz - 27 Rubio - 21 Trump - 21 Bush - 12 Carson - 10 Paul - 5 Huckabee - 3 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/43 "2016-01-19T15:39:26Z")
Here’s [538’s running Iowa predictions](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/). FWIW, the Iowa polling supporting 538’s probabilities is starting to look a bit dated, given that we’re less than 2 weeks away from caucus night. Today’s the 19th, but the most recent poll is a week old (Gravis Marketing on 1/11-12) and nobody else with results up has been in the field since the 10th. Presumably there are polls being done right now, but we don’t know what they’ll say. There’s no way to tell if there’s been any significant shifts in Iowa voter sentiment in the past week or so, which is a weird feeling at this stage. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/44 "2016-01-19T18:01:23Z")
Part of that will be the fact that a large percentage of voters - 20%? 30%? - claim not to make up their minds until the day of the caucus. That makes enough of a swing that - as the saying goes - the only poll that matters is the last one. So honestly trying to make predictive models from polls even two weeks out is enough of a challenge that even 538 is probably gulping and hedging a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/45 "2016-01-19T18:40:11Z")
There’s [speculation](http://www.adn.com/article/20160119/donald-trumps-big-announcement-has-web-abuzz-talk-sarah-palin-endorsement) that Palin is going to endorse Trump in Iowa; sort of like the head clown endorsing the ringmaster. It just gets crazier with every passing day. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/46 "2016-01-19T19:07:27Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Part of that will be the fact that a large percentage of voters - 20%? 30%? - claim not to make up their minds until the day of the caucus. That makes enough of a swing that - as the saying goes - the only poll that matters is the last one. Maybe. But I’d like to see an instance where that last-minute swing of the undecideds has happened without any preceding movement in the polls leading up to the caucuses. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/47 "2016-01-19T19:16:07Z")
And Iowa Governor Terry Branstad issues an [anti-endorsement of Ted Cruz:](http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/19/branstad-says-he-wants-cruz-defeated-iowa/79003590/) > [@](#): > > “I think it would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him.” > Asked if he would want to see Cruz defeated, Branstad said “yes.” Branstad may not be a household name like Sarah Palin is but he is very influential in the Iowa GOP. Poll numbers in Iowa for Cruz are likely to drop significantly as a result of this. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/48 "2016-01-19T19:56:18Z")
Trump: 27% Cruz: 19% Rubio: 12% Bush: 7% ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/49 "2016-01-19T20:16:38Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > Trump: 27% > Cruz: 19% > Rubio: 12% > Bush: 7% That leaves a good 35% for other candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/50 "2016-01-19T20:45:41Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Maybe. But I’d like to see an instance where that last-minute swing of the undecideds has happened without any preceding movement in the polls leading up to the caucuses. And I just don’t think we know enough to make any sort of declarative statement on the matter. My thesis remains that this primary - like the last one - is changing the game on the R side of aisle. How it changes is an unknown. The fact that it’s changing is not. ---
**Author:** ![Jayhawker\_Soule](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/57b2e6/32.png) [@Jayhawker\_Soule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jayhawker_Soule)\ **Post date:** [January 19, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/51 "2016-01-19T21:17:05Z")
Trump: 31% Cruz: 27% Rubio: 10% Bush: 8% Carson: 7% ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/52 "2016-02-01T02:29:55Z")
One last “average Doper” update the night before the caucus: Mentions… Cruz 20 Trump 20 Rubio 19 Bush 15 Carson 13 High/Low Cruz 41/15 Trump 35/18 Rubio 25/8 Bush 21/5 Carson 15/3 Mean Cruz 30.25 Trump 26.0 Rubio 14.7 Bush 8.6 Carson 8.5 Median Cruz 31 Trump 27.5 Rubio 13 Bush 7 Carson 6 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/53 "2016-02-01T03:00:02Z")
To quote Jane’s Addiction… “Here we GO!” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/54 "2016-02-01T10:10:02Z")
Yeah, at last, after a year of shadowboxing, we finally get some people actually _voting_. About freakin’ time. Really, just move the damn caucuses to October 2019 next time. Have 'em just before Halloween. The GOP candidates aren’t going to get any less scary between now and then, so it’ll be apropos. Anyhow, I’m revising my prediction from earlier in the thread: Trump 29% Cruz 26% Rubio 19% Carson 9% ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2016, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/55 "2016-02-01T13:16:30Z")
No offense, but you earn less bragging rights making a prediction today … ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/56 "2016-02-02T00:03:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > No offense, but you earn less bragging rights making a prediction today … Well, I don’t expect to earn ANY bragging rights with my earlier prediction that Cruz will get 41%, so…😛 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/57 "2016-02-02T03:07:00Z")
You’re a statistician! Spin it! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/58 "2016-02-02T07:57:34Z")
Looks like Monocracy and Sterling Archer win the bragging rights. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/59 "2016-02-02T08:27:17Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Trump: 25% > Cruz: 28% > Rubio: 20% > Bush: 12% > But I’m reminded of the Simon and Garfunkel song: > > _Anyway you look at it, you lose._ That’s actually pretty good except for Bush – the first two suggest you have psychic powers! :eek: You didn’t have them in descending order, so here they are in order with the actuals in parentheses: Cruz: 28% (28%) Trump: 25% (24%) Rubio: 20% (23%) Bush: 12% (3%) I freely admit that I didn’t have a clue what sorts of numbers to give them so I didn’t play. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/60 "2016-02-02T08:51:56Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > Cruz will overperform because of a strong ground game, whereas both Rubio and Trump will underperform for the same reason. My WAG is that Carson will continue to fade, and drop out of the top four, and Bush will benefit (barely) from the “second look” effect. > > Cruz: 38 > Trump: 26 > Rubio: 9 > Bush: 6 I give myself a C-. Got my big prediction right, which was that we’d see Cruz overperform polls and Trump underperform due to ground game. Totally whiffed on two other predictions: I thought Carson would fade more. I still don’t understand how anyone voted for him. I am also somewhat surprised by the Rubio surge. He seems to be winning the ‘winnability in November’ contest, despite not being a particularly strong candidate. However, none of his competitors are either, so I can’t really fault any Republicans who support Rubio on these grounds. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903.md?page=4)