# One Month Until Iowa: Bragging Rights Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 1, 2016, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903 "2016-01-01T15:21:47Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 4

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**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/61 "2016-02-02T10:08:05Z")

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Cruz 28  
Trump 24  
Rubio 23  
Carson 9

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/62 "2016-02-02T13:11:53Z")

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> [@iiandyiiii](#):
>
> This early it’s almost just guessing, but I’ll still play:
> 
> Cruz: 29%  
> Trump: 28%  
> Rubio: 10%  
> Carson: 10%  
> Bush: 6%  
> Huckabee: 4%  
> Santorum: 3%

I was close on the top 2, but way off on #3.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/63 "2016-02-02T13:41:47Z")

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I think Rubio surprised a lot of people - maybe even himself - last night.

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**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/64 "2016-02-02T15:39:39Z")

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> [@Lantern](#):
>
> Cruz 37%  
> Trump 25%  
> Rubio 20%  
> Carson 8%

Got the order right and did OK on 2-4 but strongly overestimated Cruz. Overall not a bad prediction, I think. Though Cruz pulled it out in the end I am still a bit surprised how he struggled in January.

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**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\
**Post date:** [February 2, 2016, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/one-month-until-iowa-bragging-rights-thread/741903/65 "2016-02-02T16:44:08Z")

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> [@GIGObuster](#):
>
> Cruz - 35%  
> Trump - 28%  
> Rubio - 12%  
> Carson - 8%

Got the order of the first 4 correct, overestimated Cruz and underestimated Rubio. I expected Cruz was going to win because Iowa has a thing for conservative fundamentalists or the ones who pander the hardest to religious people.

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