Ah, right, and the MOAB is a fuel-air explosive, if I recall? That probably wouldn’t be effective for a ground-penetrator.
I assume the ground penetration relies on the momentum from falling out of the sky? IE, you couldn’t bomb anything that moves around the site, land a C-130, wheel the bomb into place, take off, and set it off?
Plus the sectional density (small diameter versus massive drop weight) and hardened structure to survive impact rather than squashing like a tin can dropped from a height.
The penetration occurs before the explosive detonates. AFAIK, the fuse in these things is designed to trigger only after the bomb comes to a complete stop. (Some more sophisticated penetrators can count impact shocks and detonate on a specific underground sublevel after punching through multiple floors.)
A penetration bomb is a distinct thing and nothing does the same job the same way.
The primary prerequisite for most commando raids is the element of surprise. I think that bird has flown.
I don’t think we’re talking about surprising Iran any more. I think its just “We’re coming in to destroy this facility. Clear the area or be killed.”
For that matter, why are people reading about “bunker busters” and “stealth bombers” in mainstream news media? Because they are going to be used? Or because they are definitely not going to be used?
It would be more like an invasion than a commando raid, I’m not sure it would be practicable, even with complete air supremacy.
Suppose the Iranians move several divisions into the area, could Israel stop them purely with air strikes?, I don’t think Israel has the air lifting capabilities needed to move the amount of troops necessary to stop a determined assault.
On the other hand they don’t need to stay there for too long, so land as much troops as possible, destroy everything inside the facility and get out before being overwhelmed…
It would be a very risky gamble, I don’t think they’ll try.
Because they could be used, and because some people want them to be used.
But the people who would have to use them would have to be the US Air Force Global Strike Command, and that would be a huge escalation. Hence the “some people” but not “the government of Israel”, at least not as an official position AFAIK.
Yeah this. Also presumably they’ve thought of this and there are much more than four centrally located entrances. They will have other hidden entrances further away.
Since Osirak the primary design goal of a nuclear facility in the Middle East has been “must survive Israeli air strike”. So I’m sure they have designed it to last long enough survive until any bombed entrances are repaired.
The point is, as I understand it, Israel does not have sufficiently powerful bunker busters but the US does. So it’s a reason for the US to get dragged into the war.
Again all these facilities have been designed with the express purpose of surviving a bunker buster, though conversely American bunker busters are designed with the express purpose of destroying Iranian nuclear facilities.
Adjacent question: how certain is it that (say) two of the bunker buster bombs would do the job (i.e. destroy the facility enough to satisfy Israel)? I was listening to an interview on NPR yesterday and there seemed to be some doubt, possibly because intelligence doesn’t know how deep the facility actually is.
Has this bomb previously ever been used (or tested) on a target that is anything like this deep inside a mountain?
Indeed, the the GBU-57A MOP was tested in 2009 with a B-52. There’s even a pic at Wikipedia. The test bomb may have weighed less (??why??), but still. B-52s could presumably be configured to launch the bomb, should the US want to do that, timeline unknown.
This is the fundamental problem with an air and missile attack plan. “Bomb damage assessment” has been a thing for decades now, and is often more imaginative than accurate. Until you get people on the ground, you’re never really sure how much real damage you’ve done, and so we’ll never be quite sure their program is completely disabled.
Perhaps the Iranian government duplicated the enrichment facility somewhere else?
Hold tight, almost there!
Which is what everyone just told you.
Which is 1) not a statement of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons and 2) is at best a meaningless statement and at worst a lie, since Israel already has introduced nuclear weapons to the Middle East. The only countries that have a declared no first use policy with regards to nuclear weapons are China and India. Every other nation with a declared nuclear arsenal has specifically stated that there are conditions under which it will use nuclear weapons either in a first use against a nuclear armed opponent or against a non-nuclear armed opponent.
I recall they built this sort of weapon during the Iraq war to take out a bunker 50 feet underground covered by solid concrete. The design was a huge front end of solid steel followed by a delayed-fuse bomb. The manufacture was top secret, but the factory workers were not stupid - one painted the name on it … “The Saddamizer” Apparently it did the job.
I have read news reports that said the facility was built into the side of a mountain, also, and a long distance down, making it fairly impervious. but obviously intelligence experts seem to thingk these bunker-busters will work.
Because the Iranians never considered the possibility until they found out from the Americans? I would be surprised if there was ever any laxity or shortage of defense troops. The only chance this might have had was if it happened as a surprise before the first wave of attacks.
I’m surprised the Iranians have not (yet) at least threatened the use of dirty bombs. That doesn’t take a lot of technology. Israel would then be helping them out with anti-missile munitions creating high-altitude wide dispersal bursts. Presumably the Iranians have a decent amount of nuclear waste sitting around.
From the Iranian POV there’s a lot of difference between expecting that a competent enemy might try a commando raid at any time during the conflict and having reliable detailed information about a particular raid in a particular strength at a particular time with a particular objective.
Radionuclide “dirty bombs” are a terror weapon. They can made a (small) region dangerous to inhabit but they don’t destroy infrastructure, catastrophically damage conventional forces en masse, eliminate the leadership of the opposing nation, or function as any kind of counterforce weapon to an opponent’s nuclear arsenal. Deploying radionuclide weapons would provide all the justification needed for Israel to retaliate with nuclear weapons, however, and Iran has essentially no defense or ability to protect its civilian population.
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