Also it should be pointed out that the primary reason the reformist vote was splintered is because they party was basically hit by a nuclear bomb, leaving a power vacuum in the reform campaign and making it extremely difficult for them to organize and work as a united front in such a short time period from 2004-2005.
I think the OP has a great idea, and I can actually imagine it happening as Bush is in the last days of his failed Presidency, but I doubt it would do much good. Iran has little to gain and a lot to lose by playing ball with Dubya, given all that’s happened up to now.
Nevermind the diplomacy, I think Bush would likely be murdered if he went to Iran. That aside, he isn’t inclined to be diplomatic. Iran is spiting him at every opportunity and doesn’t have the need to compromise. He’s too opposed to them, and the history between the two countries is too strong. If anybody is going to do with Iran what Nixon did with China, it’ll be the President after Bush.
Unless that president happens to be a woman.
:dubious: The kindest possible description of that statement is “horseshit.”
I think he may be referring to Iranian misogyny. I’m not sure if that’s true; oddly enough, many cultures that otherwise disdain women will respect ones that actually get into leadership positions. Besides, woman or not, she’ll still have America’s military power and money behind her.
Benazir Bhutto’s being a woman doesn’t appear to have hindered in any way the formation of a close relationship between Pakistan and Iran during her Premiership in the 1990’s. If Iran does get to the point of being willing for a rapprochement with the “Great Satan”, I don’t think it’s be a deal-breaker if the US leader happens to be female.
My understanding is largely from the BBC World Service
- it is not exactly a propaganda vehicle, but it does tend to float ‘facts’
After 9/11 it seems that the Iranians were both sympathetic and helpful, and they really got jolted by the ‘Axis of Evil’ stuff.
It appears that there are 500,000 Iranians in the USA, so I rather doubt that the smarter sections of the Iranian nomenclatura are totally uninformed.
They also saw what Israel did to South Lebanon (in my opinion quite correctly) and are aware that while the USA might not be good at ‘boots on the ground’, it can still send a state back into the stone age.
My guess is that they were genuinely alarmed by the Iraq invasion, and that they know that they are vulnerable - possibly they are puzzled why the US can get along with Saudi et al, but have a problem with their regime.
Probably they are now a bit confused about exactly who they should talk to, since they know that Shrub is a paraplegic duck.
My guess is that they are using old conduits, old CIA, probably Libya and maybe Jordan and Pakistan, to establish some sort of face saving exercize - I would guess that the US is doing the same.
I watched a debate between a neo con and an iranian intellectual today.
The neo con position basically was:
“Iran will help us out in Iraq because it is in their interest to have a stable neighbour. We won’t have to make any concessions on anything and we’ll continue treating them as before on everything else.” This guy was a meber of the Bush administration first term.
The Iranian guy - not a govt person but a writer and academic said. The first precondition for us helping is the recognition by the USA and the UK that they actually hold no cards.
And here I think he is essentially right. The Iranians know they can just sit back and watch and the end result will either be a neighbour who is no threat or a friend. Meanwhile the USA is stuck there, its army impotent, its money burning, Bush becoming more unpopular by the minute, the US reputation (except as a bully) spiralling down the plughole. Iran will only help if it is made worth their while.
They also know that if attacked they have the oil weapon and they have survived sanctions etc so far and the damage they could do to the world economy far outweighs the loss of income. The Great Satan will be blamed for any hardship - just reinforcing the hardliners.
It’s win-win for the Iranians as they see it. The American position is just plain delusional.