# Opening schools **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 21, 2020, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247 "2020-05-21T15:36:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1222 "2020-11-13T18:45:14Z")
Schools that opened around here are now closing back up. Hard to have schools open when all your staff are sick. > **[An Idaho Panhandle campus is closing for the month because too many school...](https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/nov/11/idaho-panhandle-covid-cases-continue-to-surge/)** > > The Panhandle Health District reported 142 new cases on Wednesday, marking the third day in a row the district has confirmed more than 100 cases. > **[In Boise, Idaho's second-largest school district again goes online-only](https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/nov/12/idahos-2nd-largest-school-district-goes-online-onl/)** > > Idaho's second-largest school district will move to online-only classes after the end of next week because skyrocketing coronavirus cases have forced nearly 1,600 students and staffers into quarantine. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1223 "2020-11-13T20:45:15Z")
In a move that seems to make a ton of sense. My county is [closing all high and middle schools while leaving the elementary schools open](https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/jeffco-public-schools-will-move-grades-6-12-remote-next-week-k-5-on-nov-30). The older kids are both more likely to get sick and more likely to get others sick while also more capable or remote learning than the young kids. My kids private school isn’t closing for any age group though they don’t do high school but they are requiring all students to get a COVID test 5 days after Thanksgiving and a second one 5 days later is the first is positive. Thanksgiving break is being extended for a week to everyone can get tested and back home for a week prior to going back to school. They are planning to do the same thing after christmas. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1224 "2020-11-13T20:49:32Z")
Ok, I misunderstood. I don’t think we are substantially disagreeing. I just want to hear the Democrats have an honest conversation about how much risk we are willing to take to open schools. The answer can’t be “none”. We have to accept some amount of risk (by which I, unfortunately, mean some amount of additional cases and death). ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1225 "2020-11-13T22:38:51Z")
A big part of the difficulty of having this conversation is that we still have a hard time quantifying the risk. Much of what we think we know is vague. Young kids appear to be less risk to the community than older kids. How much less? The risk also isn’t spread evenly. Let’s just pretend that elementary age kids have a 1% chance of catching it at school, and a 20% chance of spreading it to their parents if they do. You might think of that much differently if you’re a 32 year old parent with no risk factors versus a 52 year old parent who is overweight and has asthma. You also might think of it differently if you know you’ll loose your job or income if you have to quarantine because your kid gets sick, or if you’ll be able to work from home and take sick leave. We have good ideas of the rate of traffic fatalities. Last year the risk factors involved make a decision between driving 1000 miles to Thanksgiving or flying were pretty quantifiable. We just aren’t there yet with Covid-19. So having a discussion about what amount of risk is acceptable sounds good, and is useful in many instances, but may just be a distraction when we don’t actually know the level of risk. Let’s say we decide it is OK to open schools when kids have a 1% chance of catching Covid-19 at school. When is that? ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1226 "2020-11-13T22:43:39Z")
One of my articles right above is an elementary school being forced to close. Maybe grade schoolers are lower risk, but it didn’t stop this school from running out of teachers that weren’t sick. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2020, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1227 "2020-11-14T12:10:03Z")
I guess I feel like having that discussion is like standing in a blurring house arguing about under what circumstances is it safe to leave the oven on. Right now, the conversation needs to be, given that everything else is open and gatherings are occurring, is it safe to have schools open? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2020, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1228 "2020-11-14T13:19:49Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > This is what I have found. I live in Wisconsin. Bars and restaurants wide open. My schools have been virtual since March. That’s so crazy. But school closings are a local decision made by people who aren’t going to lose their jobs if the schools close. Rules for bars are mostly made by governors, but they surely are influenced by bar owners who point out that they will lose their business (quite possible forever) if they are forced to close. We don’t have the infrastructure for the government to pay the lease for the bar’s venue. There is nothing the governor can do between killing lots of popular small businesses and leaving them open with regulations that do nearly nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1229 "2020-11-17T04:05:40Z")
[https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/mental-health/526209-more-than-1-million-us-children-diagnosed-with](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/mental-health/526209-more-than-1-million-us-children-diagnosed-with) > [@](#): > > “As a pediatrician who has practiced medicine for over three decades, I find this number staggering and tragic,” Sally Goza, the president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, told CNN. “We haven’t seen a virus flash through our communities in this way since before we had vaccines for measles and polio.” > **[300 K-12 South Dakota schools dealing with at least one case of coronavirus](https://www.keloland.com/news/education/300-k-12-south-dakota-schools-dealing-with-at-least-one-case-of-coronavirus/)** > > PIERRE, S.D. (KELO) — Nearly 6,000 South Dakota students, teachers and other staff members have tested positive for COVID-19 since starting classes. Here’s a look at the latest numbers.… > [@](#): > > Nearly 6,000 South Dakota students, teachers and other staff members have tested positive for COVID-19 since starting classes. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2020, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1230 "2020-11-17T22:50:14Z")
The CDC removed guidance pushing for school reopenings. The guidance still seems murky. They say that the guidance reflected the information at the time and was not updated to reflect that children can become infected and clearly can transmit. Sorry for the long quote, but I wanted to add the part that notes that the WHO website notes that there have been few outbreaks involving children or schools and that the authors of the article contend that the data increasingly suggests that schools are not hot spots for covid-19 infection. The article is confusing in tone to me. [https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/526370-cdc-quietly-removes-guidance-pushing-for-school-reopenings](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/526370-cdc-quietly-removes-guidance-pushing-for-school-reopenings) > [@](#): > > The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has quietly removed controversial guidance from its website that pushed for schools to reopen in the fall and downplayed the transmission risks of COVID-19 to children and others. > > The documents, one of which was reportedly written by political appointees outside of the CDC, stated that children appear to be at lower risk for contracting COVID-19 compared to adults and that children are unlikely to be major spreaders of the virus. > . . . > Michael Beach, the CDC’s deputy incident manager for the COVID-19 response, told Clyburn’s committee in October the guidelines “reflect the data at the time they were posted and have not been updated.” > > “It does appear that children can become infected,” Beach said, and “clearly can transmit.” > > The CDC’s website now states that “the body of evidence is growing that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and contrary to early reports might play a role in transmission.” > > The website also acknowledges that “teachers and students are in close contact for much of the day, and schools can become a place where respiratory diseases like COVID-19 can quickly spread.” > > However, data increasingly suggests schools are not hot spots for COVID-19 infection and while all kids can catch the virus, older children are more likely than younger children to spread it to others. > > Still, the World Health Organization notes on its website that few outbreaks involving children or schools have been reported and the “spread of COVID-19 within educational settings may be limited.” ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1231 "2020-11-20T19:30:47Z")
Another good article on the relative safety of in-person teaching. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/20/covid-19-schools-data-reopening-safety/?arc404=true](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/20/covid-19-schools-data-reopening-safety/?arc404=true) ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1232 "2020-11-20T19:49:08Z")
Can you summarize? It’s paywalled. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1233 "2020-11-20T20:57:20Z")
I can. In summary, she screwed up. She doesn’t actually show her math, but she made the mistake of linking to the data that she uses. I’ll note that she claims to be using four weeks of data, both outside and inside of school to do the comparison. While she might very well do that for outside, for schools her data shows two weeks, at least according to the data itself. Therefore we’re already off to a shaky start. As for the rest, this quote was key to me: > This side-by-side comparison of the New York data focuses on the period between Oct. 12 and Nov. 6. For clarity, I’ve divided all Zip codes in the state — 1,071 total — into six “buckets,” based on the prevalence of covid-19 in those communities. The lowest bucket includes all Zip codes with fewer than three covid cases per 100,000 people; the highest includes Zip codes with 20 or more cases per 100,000 people; the rest are distributed in between. > > To plot each bucket along the x-axis, I calculated the population-weighted average of covid cases within each grouping. For example, the average for the lowest bucket is two cases per 100,000 people; for the highest, it is 28 cases per 100,000 people. So we have a baseline known case rate for the general population of 0.0280% for the WORST areas Using the data that she so helpfully linked to, we get the following data (remember, this appears to be just two weeks worth, so the truth could be twice as bad). Known student cases of all schools: 936 In-person enrollment (remember, most schools are hybrid, so many kids aren’t in class): 1,329,362 We have a known case rate of 0.0704% which is over twice the rate of the **WORST** performing bucket in the general population. Let’s pretend that all students are in school (the data shows total enrollment so why the hell not): 2,422,891 for a case rate of 0.0386%. That is still far larger than the **WORST** performing bucket in the general population. Her methods appear flawed in many other ways, but once that schools are performing far worse than the worst hit areas in general, I stopped digging. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1234 "2020-11-20T21:38:16Z")
Sorry. Here’s another article, hopefully accessible. > **[Why Are We Closing Schools?](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/ease-restrictions-schools-dont-close-them/617146/)** > > Keeping kids out of the classroom will make recovering from the pandemic harder in the long term, while not keeping us any safer in the near term. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1235 "2020-11-20T21:52:22Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Here’s another article, hopefully accessible. Since that article appears to use the previously linked article as its primary source, I stopped reading pretty quickly. Did you see a flaw in my analysis of the previous link (which is certainly possible) or are you just going to throw links at us in hopes that we stop responding? ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1236 "2020-11-20T23:15:27Z")
Report from from UNICEF looking at school closings around the world: > **[Averting-a-lost-covid-generation-world-childrens-day-data-and-advocacy-brief-2020.pdf](https://www.unicef.org/media/86881/file/Averting-a-lost-covid-generation-world-childrens-day-data-and-advocacy-brief-2020.pdf)** “Evidence shows the net benefits of keeping schools open outweigh the negatives.” They cite this paper from [Insights for Education](https://www.education.org) when making that statement: > **[20201001\_Covid19%20and%20Schools%20Six%20Month%20Report.pdf](https://blobby.wsimg.com/go/104fc727-3bad-4ff5-944f-c281d3ceda7f/20201001_Covid19%20and%20Schools%20Six%20Month%20Report.pdf)** ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2020, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1237 "2020-11-20T23:20:57Z")
Well, I get the impression I will soon see a few people tell us what a bunch of idiots UNICEF are. Lol. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1238 "2020-11-21T01:00:24Z")
The Washington Post article is an opinion piece by economist Emily Oster. Summary; - NYC has decided to close its schools. There is controversy if schools are a significant source of spread. Some schools seem to have a significant rate of infection. - The author argues infection rates in schools mirror those in its surrounding community. So efforts should be placed on limiting community spread. - The author believes there is a disconnect between “schools aren’t superspreaders” and some schools objectively showing positive tests for Covid. - These can coexist because of the way schools measure cases. - Viruses detected in schools do not measure where cases were actually acquired - in school, in church, at a gathering etc. - If one assumes tests in schools would be the same as tests in stores or parks or anywhere else, the author believes there should be cause for concern if the infection rates among staff and students are higher than the surrounding community. - To determine if schools are superspreaders, it would be ideal to compare the rate of infection in the school with the local community. - The author divides the 1071 NYC zip codes into six categories based on the number of cases per 100k residents. The lowest group is \<3 cases per 100k, the highest of six groups \>20 cases per 100k. These six cohorts are plotted on an x-axis. - The number of cases in schools, in each of the six groups, were found. These cases were also divided into elementary (and middle school), high school, and faculty and staff. The average infection rate of these three populations forms the y-axis. This study considers what happened from Oct.12 to Nov.6 only. - Plotting shows that for high school students and staff, the infection rate mirrors that in their surrounding community. For elementary students, the rate is lower than the surrounding community. - Schools with more minorities tend to have more cases, but so do the surrounding communities. Again, elementary schools seem to have a lower rate than the surrounding community, but high schools and faculty have similar rates to the surrounding community. - 80% of schools has no Covid cases. Of the 20% that did - 87% had one (65%) or two (22%) cases. 7.5% had 3 cases, 4.5% had 4-6 cases, 1% had 7 or more cases. - The author believes that the focus should be on community spread, and that closing schools will not in general control community spread. This, the author believes NYC is making an error by closing schools because community rates are rising, not because of evidence schools are the main cause of spreading. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2020, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1239 "2020-11-21T01:06:25Z")
There is a lot of original data provided. I don’t know if they provided all of it. I didn’t go through it, and am not about to now. I don’t see anything wrong with dividing into cohorts or type of student or faculty. If there are errors one might communicate them to the NYT or Atlantic, who should be checking the numbers. The claims make sense to me. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2020, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1240 "2020-11-21T01:14:43Z")
Did you see my post at all? I don’t need a summary. I broke down the actual numbers from the data that she uses. Her data shows that it is more dangerous to go to school than it is to be a member of the general population in the areas with the highest community spread. She somehow neglects to mention that in the article. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2020, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/1241 "2020-11-21T01:19:47Z")
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