# Opening schools **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [May 21, 2020, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247 "2020-05-21T15:36:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 588
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247/588 "2020-07-26T19:20:39Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > > [@DSeid](#): > > > > Of course what @RealityCheck71 says but more so it must be made clear: any community that has community spread WILL have cases among those of the community that go into schools. If at rates similar to the community at large then the school is a neutral action. > > That’s not accurate. With remote learning, you’ve got a system that _depresses_ community spread, by strongly encouraging family units to be at home for large parts of the day. (Obviously not all families will do this, but it’ll affect the community). … Even beyond the absurdness of the comparison you are making (to an imagined best practice standard of isolation), in this you are simply being completely afactual or perhaps more accurately engaging in broad fantasy making about what happens during prolonged school closures. Even for an influenza pandemic there has been sketchy evidence that school closures would be effective precisely because what you imagine, families all staying at home together huddled, parents not working or able to telecommute, no kids going over to each other houses to play, is widely understood to _not_ be a likely reality. School is not in session for most of the country now. Are parents all huddled at home with their kids across the country? Are parents all isolating themselves and their children? Is spread seemingly slowed down by schools not being in session? Oh some parents will be unable to work because of this but many more will be interacting in the world and then having twice daily interactions with grandparents and others of greater vulnerability called in to help with the kids of all ages, and in _ad hoc_ daycare arrangements, extended family and otherwise. Kids out of school will not be kept in isolation cells, and school closures will very possibly cause _more_ exposures of adults with greater vulnerabilities to other adults with greater exposures, especially in the greatest risk demographics. What you imagine is not even likely true for influenza in which kids are clearly _more_ commonly infected than adults, _much more_ contagious, and _for longer_ periods of time. Kids are [not](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2600319/) kept home during closures and the impact of school closures even in the case of _influenza_ while likely real has been [small with little impact on adult rates](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh). > [@](#): > > During the 2009 pandemic in New Zealand, the age-standardised proportion of confirmed cases in 5-year-olds to 19-year-olds fell during the winter holiday and increased when schools reopened[19](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-19); a slight increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) consultation rates when schools reopened was confined to 5-year-olds to 14-year-olds.[14](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-14) Similar relationships between school closure and the ratio of the number of H1N1 infections in 5-year-olds to 20-year-olds to that in other age groups were reported for Mexico[23](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-23) and Peru.[24](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-24) During the 1967–1968 influenza season in Great Britain, general practitioner (GP) consultation rates for ILI among 5-year-olds to 14-year-olds declined during the winter holiday and increased when schools reopened; this effect was less clear in other age groups.[17](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-17) > > Winter holidays in Israel were associated with a reduction in the ratio between the number of clinic visits for influenza and those for non-respiratory complaints, in 6-year-olds to 12-year-olds, in three of five seasonal influenza periods studied.[15](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-15) In one season, this ratio was also reduced in adults, and in another it was reduced for adults not living with 6-year-olds to 12-year-olds. When a 2-week teachers’ strike coincided with an influenza outbreak in January 2000, closing 80% of elementary schools nationwide, this ratio decreased by 15% for 6-year-olds to 12-year-olds (95% CI 6% to 23%), but not for older individuals. … > > … Similar data from four influenza seasons in Arizona are less consistent, partly because school closure rarely coincided with elevated influenza activity.[18](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-18) During all four seasons, rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza in school-aged children were similar during the 2-week winter holiday and the preceding 2 weeks. In two seasons, this rate increased in the 2 weeks after schools reopened; in one other season, it was significantly lower on reopening than during closure.[18](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-18) In comparison, rates in adults and preschool-aged children increased successively (though not always significantly) across the three 2-week periods in three of the seasons.[18](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-18) > > Three studies which fitted transmission models to surveillance data also concluded that school closures mainly benefit children.[12](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-12) ,[13](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-13) Analyses of French seasonal ILI data[13](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-13) and ILI data from London during the 2009 pandemic[22](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-22) estimated that school holidays did not affect adults’ contact patterns; similarly, reductions in transmission following school closures in Hong Kong in 2009 occurred primarily among children.[12](https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/3/2/e002149? __cf_chl_jschl_tk__ =f08a322cd9dedba7a60252165e26b13333e7943b-1595790345-0-ASfdFsHw0Al7dFTAUnvOiK62wtz_F7rJc655fvePQXBzPmYkykzZcKTwYsp2fdRofeweasCeWbUUN-9OCnRg9r2WOzToqaHWrBEB1Rm1gfO_c_4XnKJ4MJh_hWmVCBN8wZeIMDbWfwR27xCNAK8a1LSuXrC0RWE-vI2rPRjERP5rlKHyOjbhaQn-9crm_mJtprhotsPpRSPwejRxhXw_kXEd4_FVgFKS1SxriWH72kOMp1o-DPFtSqXChridkwSJprtXxzQe-Fy-BU84-LBruPEcaIxAJteCBWuKaSmFWlPh#ref-12) --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/opening-schools/854247)._